There is one region of the world where Donald Trump’s brand is remarkably resilient, despite his depreciating popularity abroad: Eastern Europe. The far-right populist George Simion, who favored the Trump-loving candidate for president in Romania, won over 40% of the vote and had a chance to win the presidency. Simion pledges to “give back to the Romanian people what was taken from them” in response to Trump’s “Make America Great Again” pledge. He is not a jerk.
Viktor Orban, the prime minister of the neighboring country, has taken on Trump’s European standard-bearer. Beyond politics, Trumpworld has an impact in the area. Donald Trump Jr. recently wrapped up his second tour of Serbia, Romania, and Bulgaria, where he will rub shoulders with politicians, business leaders, and crypto-entrepreneurs looking to form ties with the Trump family. Jared Kushner is spearheading a real estate venture in downtown Belgrade.
The “America First” president is a subject that is both ideologically aligned and pragmatically inclined in Eastern Europe. The post-communist landscape is largely influenced by the MAGA message. In a recent Gallup poll conducted prior to the US election in 2024, it was revealed that Kamala Harris had won the favor over Trump, with a staggering 59% of respondents in Serbia and Bulgaria. This is not a coincidence. Illiberal actors from all over the region are demonstrating against the liberal democratic consensus, from the AfD supporters in former East Germany to the Georgian Dream party in Tbilisi. Their opinions on issues like Ukraine, race, gender, multiculturalism, vaccines, and LGBTQ rights are comparable to those of Trump’s base. Vladimir Putin’s hostility toward Trump has made him more popular in Serbia, a country that supports Russia.
A transnational dimension is also present. The US’s Eastern European diasporas are more likely to support Trump because of his social conservatism or opposition to other racial and ethnic groups. Even though they profit from the very open-border policies that they frequently denigrate, their Western European counterparts are similarly inclined. 60% of Romanians who reside in the European Union and the UK recently cast ballots for Simion. Prior to the Munich Security Conference, US Vice President JD Vance publicly defended far-right figure Calin Georgescu, for which many had previously backed.
Elites at home perceive Trump as a potential enabler. A powerful friend in Washington who disseminates corruption and democratic understrates might be advantageous both domestically and internationally. In a region rifr with opaque sectors like infrastructure, energy, and mining, the chance of US foreign policy becoming indistinguishable from the Trump Organization’s business agenda is appealing. The most recent US-Ukraine deal is seen as a recipe for a transactional White House to curry favor with.
Already, this partnership is fruitful. Antal Rogan, a close Orban ally, was originally subject to sanctions by the Biden administration under the Global Magnitsky Act in April. The decision has sparked concern elsewhere: Delyan Peevski, a political heavyweight and tycoon, is reportedly seeking a similar reprieve in Bulgaria.
However, Trump’s romantic relationship with Eastern Europe may be fragile. Trump’s economic nationalism, in fact, poses a threat to undermine the very economies that his ideological allies control. Both Slovakia and Hungary are heavily dependent on exports of cars, and US tariffs are likely to apply. The Slovakian auto industry, which accounts for nearly 30% of the country’s exports, employs 10% of its workforce. Even a modest 10% tariff could decimate employment in the industrial belt of Central Europe.
Political effects would result from this economic collapse. Andrej Babis, a populist businessman who resembles Donald Trump, might benefit from it in the Czech Republic. With elections looming next year, Orban is already facing a significant challenge from Peter Magyar in Hungary. Robert Fico, who has a slim majority in the government and growing public dissention, is uncertain about his long-term viability in Slovakia.
Right-wing allies in Canada and Australia have already shown that Trumpism is wrong. Eastern Europe is more accepting, but the region is at risk of over-identification with a movement that opposes liberal values, global economic integration, and the European Union.
Bucharest and Belgrade may still be enthralled by the MAGA revolution, but those who support it could as easily become enraged by its contradictions.
Source: Aljazeera
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