Following several months of conflict in eastern DRC, which has claimed the lives of thousands of people and forced millions of people, Rwanda and the Democratic Republic of the Congo are expected to sign a peace agreement through the United States on Friday.
Neither country is formally at war, but the DRC accuses its neighbour, Rwanda, of backing the M23 rebel group, which is waging war in eastern DRC. This accusation is refuted by Rwanda.
A deadly offensive by the rebels in eastern DRC was escalating in January, according to a UN expert panel. The M23 has since seized the strategic cities of Goma and Bukavu, and its attacks have raised fears of a regional war.
In a region where dozens of militias have been battling for resource control since the middle of the 1990s, reports suggest that the US is considering investing in the mineral-rich region in exchange for security and calm.
What we know about the upcoming peace agreement is as follows:
What causes the crisis, and why?
The Rwandan genocide of Tutsis and centrist Hutus in 1994 is the cradle of the DRC-Rato conflict.
Following the overthrow of the genocidal government by the Rwandan Defence Forces, Hutu genocidaires fled into the neighbouring DRC’s poorly governed eastern region. They continued to launch attacks on Rwanda while hiding among civilian refugees.
The First and Second Congo Wars (1996-1997) and 1998-2003 were the result of Kigali’s attempts to attack those forces. Rwanda and Uganda were accused of targeting Hutu civilians, and looting and smuggling the DRC’s coffee, diamonds, timber, coltan and gold. In addition, other neighbors chose Rwanda or the DRC’s side.
Since then, there has been little low-level conflict in Eastern DRC. More than six million people have been killed, and millions have been displaced. In the area, at least 100 armed groups operate and control lucrative mines while exploiting a security vacuum. Coltan and cobalt are one of the largest reserves in the world. It is also rich in gold, tantalum, tin and tungsten, which are critical for tech gadgets.
One of those forces is M23, which first appeared in 2012. Congolese Tutsi soldiers who participated in the conflict and were intended to be incorporated into the army make up the majority of the group. In 2011, they revolted, claiming ethnic discrimination in the force. M23 asserts that it is protecting Congolese Tutsis’ rights. However, Kigali refutes the accusations that the organization serves as a front for Rwanda’s regional control plans. President Felix Tshisekedi has also accused longtime Rwandan leader Paul Kagame of backing the group.
According to a report from the 2022 UN expert, Rwanda is actively supporting the M23 and has between 3,500 and 4000 Rwandan troops stationed in the DRC. Rwanda also claims to support the group, according to the US. Rwanda counters the allegations by accusing the DRC of working with other armed groups like the Democratic Forces for the Liberation of Rwanda (FDLR), a Hutu rebel outfit. Kinshasa insists that the organization is not involved.
Why did the conflict resurface?
M23, which was initially defeated by a UN force, reappeared in 2022 with a string of sporadic, violent attacks. It launched a lightning offensive in January 2025, seizing towns quickly and promising to march on Kinshasa, using heavy artillery.
An alliance of the Congolese Defence Forces, the FLDR, and a force from the Southern African Development Community (SADC) attempted to push the group back. The SADC forces withdrew in May.
Because each side is held accountable for violating ceasefires, African Union-led mediation efforts like the Luanda Peace Process (2022) and the Nairobi Peace Process (2023) have failed to put an end to the conflict. In March, President Joao Lourenco of Angola, who attempted to strike a deal for months, stepped down as official mediator.
In addition, important Rwandan army officials have been subject to sanctions by the United States and the European Union for their involvement in the conflict.
Therese Kayikwamba Wagner, the DRC’s foreign minister, and Olivier Nduhungirehe, her Rwandan counterpart, were in talks with US Secretary of Defense Marco Rubio in April.
Qatar is also involved in the mediation. In one of the rarest face-to-face encounters in March, Shisekedi and Kagame had a meeting with Qatar’s emir in Doha.
What exactly is contained in the peace deal?
A full draft of the agreement to be signed on Wednesday has not been made available.
Standard phrases like: “In earlier drafts during the negotiation process, including:
- Both parties’ commitment to territorial security and a stop to hostilities.
- Disengagement, disarmament and conditional integration of non-state armed groups.
- refugees and the displacement of people who have returned.
Conditions that would govern the negotiations were released by the US Department of State earlier in April, though it is unknown whether they were included in the final agreement. They were categorised as such:
- Respect for one another’s territorial boundaries: Both sides agreed to do so.
- Security: Both pledged to establish a joint security operation to combat militias and to end all armed groups.
- Economic issues: Both countries agreed to use existing regional framework structures, such as the East African Community, to expand transparent trade and investment opportunities, including those to be facilitated by “the US government or US investors” in mineral supply chains, hydropower development and national park management.
Does the mineral trade agreement serve as a bargaining chip for the DRC?
Some critics have expressed concern that the US might leverage the agreement to gain more access to the minerals in the DRC. Such a scenario, they warn, could cause a replay of the violence of past decades, when the DRC’s minerals were a major draw for interfering foreign governments.
These worries stem from the Tshikekedi government’s US-made pitch from February. In exchange for minerals, the DRC agreed to a a minerals-for-security deal with Washington, which basically demanded that the US government control eastern DRC.
US envoy to Africa Massad Boulos confirmed on a trip to DRC in April that Washington was interested in a mineral deal. Despite no specifics, talks have been going on in parallel with the Rwanda-DRC peace agreement.
Under President Donald Trump, Washington is working to ensure that high-tech equipment and weapons have access to minerals.
“The intertwining of peace and mineral interests is deeply alarming, echoing a tragic and persistent pattern in the DRC’s history”, analyst Lindani Zungu wrote in an opinion piece for Al Jazeera, recalling how colonial rulers exploited the DRC’s resources, and how its neighbours did the same during the Congo wars.
Zungu warned that “this peace deal” could turn out to be another neo-colonial instrument. Foreign investment is used in this context to “deepen the gap between resource-rich African countries and wealthy consumer economies,” not to build but to extract.
Will this fix the DRC crisis?
How will this deal resolve the numerous tensions in the DRC remains a mystery. The proposed resolution or remediation procedures are not mentioned in the draft agreements.
Chief among the issues, analysts say, is the overall weak governance and justice system in the country that historically sees corrupt officials and perpetrators of injustice go scot-free. Some Congo wars politicians, who were not subject to trials, are the focus of the analysis.
The Congolese people want a fair and credible judicial system that doesn’t just punish one person, but also exposes the wider domestic and international power structures that have profited from the suffering of the people, according to Center for Congo Research analyst Kambale Musavuli.
“True justice means going beyond the courtroom. It also involves restoring Congo’s people’s access to its resources, eradicating predatory practices that were instituted under (previous President) Kabila, and continuing the Tshisekedi regime. Additionally, he said, “it also means holding all actors accountable for their roles in the plunder and violence, including multinational corporations and foreign governments.”
Both the M23 and the Congolese armed forces have been accused of atrocities, including extrajudicial killings and sexual assault. Before he and President Tshisekedi, Corneille Nangaa, a M23 rebel leader, allegedly brokered ‘backroom deals’ involving contested 2018 general elections. He was the head of the nation’s elections commission. He announced that his Congo River Alliance would join M23 in December 2023.
Source: Aljazeera
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