Does Ireland’s loss to South Africa confirm they are in decline?

Whatever the consequences of Ireland’s Saturday contest against the Springboks were, Mack Hansen wouldn’t have been on kick-off duty in the second half.

There is a strong chance of blaming it all on a bizarre day at work given the chaotic nature of the 24-13 reverse against the world champions, which saw Andy Farrell’s side receive a 20-minute red card and four yellows, three of which overlapped.

However, doing so would gloss over Ireland’s role in their own demise.

Whatever the public thinks about Matthew Carley and his officiating team’s failure to send Sacha Feinberg-Mngomezulu to the sin bin for a tackle on Tommy O’Brien in the first half, Ireland’s own cards were all deserved, the result of their own lack of discipline and South Africa’s set-piece dominance.

After being bulk-supplied for the British and Irish Lions’ series victory over the summer, the season started with a sluggish start for many of Ireland’s front-liners.

As a result, there were concerns that they would be undercooked when they returned to Soldier Field to face the All Blacks in the first game of the month.

There was no repeat of New Zealand’s famous 2016 victory in Chicago, which Scott Robertson’s side won 26-13 with a faltering set-piece and lack of impact from the bench.

Before Ireland eventually won six-tries against the Brave Blossoms, the team had a disjointed start after rotating for Japan’s visit.

Hansen made his first appearance as a Test full-back for the first time, scoring a hat-trick in a 46-19 victory for the visitors.

In the run-up to Saturday, Ireland kept in mind that many viewers would pick the Springboks as their main focus for the series.

Ireland’s November result would “hinge,” according to Captain Caelan Doris, while Farrell referred to it as a “litmus test.”

With less than two years until the World Cup, and the result of double-digit defeats by New Zealand and South Africa, the tournament’s focus will only become clearer with next month’s draw for Australia 2027.

The squad’s age-profile is still up for debate, but as Saturday’s opponents once more demonstrate, such concerns only arise when results are disappointing.

However, what exactly does Ireland currently reasonably expect from its rugby team is beyond that. Although their response to the admittedly self-inflicted suffering was admirable, three home defeats in 13 months is yet another unforgiving measure.

At the conclusion of the autumn series, former Ireland Rugby Social podcast host Peter O’Mahony offered an intriguing perspective.

O’Mahony, who retired at the end of last season, said, “I think there should be a little perspective from Irish rugby fans in general, and I should just relax a little.”

While it was certainly eye-catching to hear a former inner sanctum player discuss the expectations surrounding the side in such a way, the comments sparked debates about Ireland’s position in the world game now that they have consistently pushed above their weight in recent years.

More competitive performances against those around them in the rankings are now viewed as a base, not an ambition, as Ireland finished third in the world in the month, having since fallen to fourth place behind England.

Since losing to Wales in the 2021 Six Nations, Ireland have won just three of their previous nine games against England, New Zealand, South Africa, and France, a run that dates back to the 2023 World Cup and the retirement of talismanic skipper Johnny Sexton.

When compared to a 14-man France, an England side that is not at their current level, and a South African team that scored a last-kick drop-goal, all of this contributes to a worrying trend.

Without diminishing the losses in a similar context, it also seems instructive that the reverses were made up of 9.5 points of average.

Ireland currently feels in a tier of its own, far from flat-track bullies but undoubtedly struggling when expected to make the step up, rather than the worst of the best or the best of the rest.