Does Andrew Cuomo have path to victory in NYC race against Zohran Mamdani?

Chris Berwick, a New Yorker, is running for mayor of the largest city in the country, saying things he never imagined he would.

As the November 4 election day approaches, the self-described moderate conservative has been weighing the three-way contest between Democratic candidate Zohran Mamdani, former Democratic Governor Andrew Cuomo and Republican candidate Curtis Sliwa.

“I have to do what’s best for New York”, the 58-year-old told Al Jazeera outside his apartment complex in Bay Ridge, Brooklyn. Andrew Cuomo is best for New York, according to my gut instincts.

Naturally, Berwick, a regular Republican voter, chose Sliwa, a veteran of New York City who rose to prominence by leading a contentious volunteer crime-fighting organization, the Guardian Angels, in the 1980s.

But in the Democrat-dominated metropolis, he feels it would be a waste.

The retired contractor claimed that “it’s the lesser of two evils.” Cuomo is not a fan of socialism, but I don’t believe this country was built on it.

Cuomo’s campaign hopes that there are many voters in the city like Berwick, willing to hold their nose and vote for a Democrat to stop Mamdani, an avowed democratic socialist who surged to surprise success in the June Democratic primary on a broad and ambitious platform of affordability and progressive reform.

Cuomo’s best chance of winning may be rallying independents and Democrats who are skeptical of Mamdani.

Even the most charitable polls show the 67-year-old political scion trailing the 34-year-old frontrunner, Mamdani, by at least eight percentage points. Mamdani leads between 13 and 24 percentage points, according to the majority of polls that are deemed to be the best. Between 9 and 23 percent of Sliwa’s polls are conducted.

Cuomo, who left his post as governor amid sexual misconduct allegations in 2021, has leaned into the conservative outreach, touring right-wing media megaphones and the city’s Republican strongholds in the final weeks of the race.

In a speech made in mid-October, Cuomo told firebrand conservative host Sid Rosenberg, “I need your listeners to vote for me.”

He assured me that “I don’t have horns.” &nbsp,

Not interested in experimental plans

Many of Cuomo’s supporters are hopeful that the city’s pollsters are not accurately measuring the city’s temperature, hoping that both Republicans and independents, who were unable to cast a closed Democratic primary, will determine the outcome.

About 20 percent of the 4.7 million registered voters in New York City were unaffiliated with a party in 2024. Only 1% of Republicans were present.

Cuomo supporters believe that the calculus may be altered by Mamdani’s inexperience and concerns about the enormous obstacles to his affordability plans as the election day approaches.

Mamdani has run a campaign on pledges of rent freezes, universal childcare and free buses, paid for, in part, by increasing taxes on corporations and the wealthiest city residents. State lawmakers would have to give the city’s tax code extensive, hard-won support. Mamdani has been endorsed by New York State Governor Kathy Hochul, who asserted that a tax increase would be ineffective.

“I like to wish that Zohran supporters will take a little bit of a more critical lens to what he’s proposing”, said Yiatin Chu, 58, from White Stone Queens, who leads the Asian Wave alliance, a political group that supports Cuomo.

Under Mamdani, who has pledged a number of police reforms, Chu expressed her concern for public safety in particular. She supports Cuomo’s plan to increase the NYPD’s force by 5,000 officers, according to her supporters.

“A city this size is not up for experimental plans”, Chu told Al Jazeera. You can say all these wonderful things, but I’m sorry you can’t just step into and wing it in a city with a $116 billion budget and 300,000 city employees.

Cuomo has argued that Mamdani’s policies will force the wealthiest residents of the city to flee, and he did well in the primary in wealthy neighborhoods of Manhattan. He did well with Black voters and in the farthest reaches of the outer boroughs of many middle-class and upper-class neighbourhoods.

Cuomo has released his own affordability plans since the primary, aiming to penetrate Mamdani’s base and portraying them as more realistic than his rival. That included unveiling a policy in August to make buses free to the poorest New Yorkers. He claimed that the proposed reforms are more equitable than Mamdani’s signature pledge, which would provide them for everyone.

Michael LaRosa, a 30-year-old man from Middle Village, Queens, predicted a swell from all political parties, particularly those who work in industries like his.

“My father’s a carpenter. LaRosa, whose union has supported the former governor, said, “I’m an electrician and we rely on people who have our backs.” Cuomo has our back, according to what we can tell.

Angie Tobie, 63, who lives in public housing in the Mott Haven neighbourhood in the Bronx, said that many voters see the same youth that has energised Mamdani’s as a liability in a leader.

She expressed particular concern about Mamdani’s previous statements, including one that called for the police to be defunded in 2020. In response, Maddani has since apologized to police officers in full.

“He’s so young, he’s got no experience”, she told Al Jazeera. He’ll come into office and realize that he made unfulfilled promises.

Islamophobia, hate speech, and “fear-mongering”

To be sure, the most expedient path to victory for Cuomo would be Sliwa’s last-minute exit from the race.

A vote for Sliwa is a “vote for Mamdani,” according to Cuomo. Sliwa has continued to be defiant, arguing that Cuomo should leave the race to “hang out with your billionaires in the Hamptons.”

Some conservatives, including prominent businessman John Catsimatidis, who funds Sliwa’s radio show, have also called on the Republican to drop out of the race.

Joe Borelli, a former top Republican on the New York City Council, stated on Fox News that he would support Cuomo if he didn’t “light my vote on fire.”

In the run-up to the rallying effort, Cuomo has re-used his increasingly vicious tactics, including a months-long attack that pitted Mamdani against his pro-Palestine beliefs and baselessly accusing him of anti-Semitism. Prior to his run, Cuomo had joined a legal team representing Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu against an International Criminal Court arrest warrant for war crimes committed in Gaza.

Cuomo appeared to agree with Rosenberg’s assertion that Mamdani would be “cheering” if attacks like those on September 11, 2001, occurred again in the US.

In response to what many perceived as blatant Islamophobia and racism, Cuomo said, “That’s another problem.” Mamdani would be the first Muslim, first person born in Africa and first person of South Asian descent to lead the city.

In response to the exchange, Governor Hochul, Cuomo’s former deputy, said, “Fear-mongering, hate speech, and Islamophobia are beneath New York … and everything we stand for as a state.”

Cuomo has also bolstered his criticism of Mamdani’s affiliation with the Democratic Socialists of America (DSA), attempting to capitalize on the deep distrust of US conservatives toward the term “socialist” The DSA does not define Democratic Socialism, but it is usually interpreted as a collection of broad progressive policies aimed at creating a more equitable society, achieved through democratic means.

Cuomo warned of a “socialist city” under Mamdani in a recent Fox News interview, referring to what he called the “death of New York as we know it, whether you’re a Democrat or a Republican.”

Experience versus experimentation

On a gusty day in October, Sidcornia Winston, a 48-year-old from East New York, was one of two volunteers attending a canvassing event for Cuomo in front of the Barclays Center arena, a hulking mass of oxidised steel in the Prospect Heights neighbourhood of Brooklyn.

The race’s final weeks have served as a campaigning contrast. Despite utilizing the DSA’s sprawling infrastructure, Maddani has leaned into an army of volunteers who are omnipresent in his personalized social media videos.

Cuomo’s ground game has been far less pronounced, with his run buoyed instead by advertisement buys in traditional media.

Between June 25 and October 20, pro-Cuomo and anti-Mamdani political action committees (PACs) collectively raised more than $ 14.5 million, according to a Bloomberg News analysis. In that time, pro-Mamdani PACs had raised more than $1.7 million.

Mamdani’s base has been particularly critical of Cuomo’s top supporters, including business and real estate industry leaders and renowned pro-Israel billionaires Miriam Adelson and Bill Ackman.

However, Winston, a volunteer for the Cuomo, sees an advantage in the perceived proximity to Trump, who has promised to use the National Guard to attack city funding and if Mamdani wins.

“Trump has promised to bankrupt the city if Mamdani is elected”, said Winston, a certified chef. We don’t need to pick a fight right now with the federal government because I don’t care who you are.

Anne, a second volunteer in her late 60s, hoped to persuade skeptical voters that Cuomo had the skills necessary to lead the city in the era of Trump.

“It’s experience versus experiments”, she said. “That’s why we’re here,” the statement read.

I still have potential to change.

As election day approaches, Cuomo has received a boost from the endorsement of current Mayor Eric Adams after he abandoned the race.

However, shifting electoral allegiances can be disastrous.

Junior Shall, 67, was drawn to a well-known face in Cuomo during the primary in Crown Heights, Brooklyn.

Shall, a worker in child care, described him as a “understanding the older people in the city.”

However, Mamdani’s excitement has prompted a second look.

Source: Aljazeera