Cummins’ Ashes fitness fears grow – how big a loss would he be?

Australia are yet to make a decision on Pat Cummins’ participation in the Ashes, amid reports their captain could miss the series.

Local media reported on Wednesday the 32-year-old will miss the first Test in Perth on 21 November and is doubtful for the whole series as fresh scans showed his back stress problem had not yet healed.

However, the Australia camp has indicated Cummins remains in rehabilitation and no call has been made on his status for the first Test.

Cummins was ruled out of Australia’s white-ball series against New Zealand and India last month after scans revealed a lumbar bone stress in his back.

The Australian said he would be “aggressive” and “take risks” in his rehabilitation in order to make the series.

Cummins has a history of back injuries, with flare-ups in 2012-13, 2013-14 and 2015-16 causing him to miss three Australian summers in four years.

In 2018, he suffered a recurrence that ruled him out of the Indian Premier League in April and an October tour of Pakistan, although he has stayed relatively free of injury since then.

Should Cummins miss out, he will be replaced by pace bowler Scott Boland in Australia’s attack, while Steve Smith would likely skipper the side.

Australia have held the urn since 2018, while England are without a win Down Under since 2011.

England have their own doubts over captain Ben Stokes, who has been troubled with a shoulder injury since the Test series against India.

It’s hard to overplay what a huge blow it would be to Australia if Pat Cummins misses some or all of the Ashes, similar to England being without Ben Stokes.

Cummins leads from the front in every sense. It was the skipper who got Australia over the line in the thrilling first Test at Edgbaston in 2023, when England seemed on course for victory.

From a captaincy point of view, Steve Smith stepping up to lead would not be a problem – he is arguably a better tactician than Cummins. Scott Boland waits as the reserve seamer and has a prolific record in Australia, but Cummins is one of the premier fast bowlers in the world.

Indeed, the topic of fast bowling will dominate the build-up to the series. England have named their most hostile group of pace bowlers to tour Australia since 1970 and will keep everything crossed that the bowlers can arrive fit and firing. Australia are now sweating over Cummins.

If Cummins is out, Australia’s resources are suddenly looking thin. Josh Hazlewood has his own recent fitness problems and the rapid Lance Morris is out for a year. The uncapped Brendan Doggett would possibly be in line for a call-up, while the likes of Michael Neser, Jhye Richardson and Sean Abbott could come into contention.

It is worth remembering England have their own doubts over Stokes, who has not completed any of their past four series.

Cummins’ injury concerns heading into this winter’s Ashes could be a case of a career about to come full circle – but not in the way Australia’s captain will have wanted.

He made his debut as an 18-year-old in 2011 against South Africa, becoming the second-youngest player in the world to take a five-wicket haul in an innings at that time, despite sustaining a heel injury during the match.

But his explosive debut proved to be something of a false dawn. Cummins had to wait another six years to make his second Test appearance as a young body failed to withstand the load of fast bowling, suffering repeated stress fractures to his lower back.

Fast-forward 14 years to the upcoming winter of 2025 and back problems have once again resurfaced, albeit this time as “lumbar bone stress” rather than a fracture. He has not bowled a ball since July.

If back injuries have plagued Cummins’ Test career, periods of fitness have been filled with ebullient excellence as a thoroughbred quick.

The 32-year-old, who was made Test captain in the wake of Tim Paine’s resignation shortly before the 2021-22 Ashes, has taken 309 Test wickets at an average of 22.10.

He is even more formidable in Australia, taking 177 wickets at 19.92, while he’s also taken 91 wickets against England in just 19 matches.

In the most recent Ashes series in 2023, Cummins played in all five Tests, one of only two bowlers to do so along with Stuart Broad, taking 18 wickets.

A talismanic leader, Cummins enjoyed a glorious 2023 as captain, taking six wickets in the triumphant World Test Championship final and starring in the 50-over World Cup final victory in Ahmedabad – both against India.

He is the only captain in Test history to win the World Test Championship, World Cup and an Ashes series.