Charting the rise of Germany’s far-right AfD party

EXPLAINER

In a historic shift in Germany’s political landscape, the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) has surged to become the second largest party in the Bundestag, winning 20.8 percent of the vote in federal elections.

The Christian Democratic Union (CDU) was the biggest vote-getter on Sunday, winning 28.6 percent alongside its sister party, the Christian Social Union. Forming a coalition with the AfD, which poses a challenge for the CDU to form a stable government, is not a possibility.

Numerous German voters have voted in favor of the AfD’s key policies. They include:

Immigration controls, including the rejection of asylum applications and “remigration” initiatives that would deport foreign nationals
• changes to the economy, such as the return of the German mark and the abandonment of the euro
• Foreign policy changes, such as leaving the NATO alliance
• changing energy transitions, such as replacing old windmills with nuclear energy

Who is the AfD leader Alice Weidel?

Alice Weidel, a former finance professional with a doctorate in economics, joined the AfD in 2013 and quickly rose to leadership posts. The AfD became a nationalism and strict immigration policies, with Weidel as the front-runner.

Weidel capitalised on voter frustration, particularly in the former East Germany, by opposing immigration, green energy policies and globalisation. Using social media and high-profile interviews, including with tech billionaire Elon Musk, to expand her influence, Weidel’s “remigration” and nationalist policies have garnered her and the AfD attention.

What previous results has the AfD had?

The party’s electoral gains mirror rising dissatisfaction among voters on migration, the economy and mainstream parties.

The AfD, which was founded as a eurosceptic party, won 4.7% of the vote in its first federal election in 2013, falling short of the 5 percent threshold for a seat in the Bundestag.

In the 2017 federal elections, the party gained 12.6 percent of votes and entered the Bundestag with 94 seats. It was the third largest party in the German parliament, its popularity driven by then-Chancellor Angela Merkel’s 2015 refugee policy, which allowed more than a million asylum seekers into Germany.

While still performing strongly in eastern Germany, the AfD’s vote share dropped in the 2021 elections to 10.3 percent, making it the fifth largest party in the Bundestag. The party struggled to keep its anti-immigration rhetoric because concern at the time was more focused on how to handle the COVID-19 pandemic.

In Sunday’s elections, the AfD doubled its vote share from 2021 as the election campaign focused on immigration and the economy.

Where did the AfD excel most?

In Sunday’s elections, the AfD won votes in almost every single German constituency.

Due to post-reunification disparities that have resulted in eastern Germany’s economic development and employment opportunities, the AfD has historically performed well among voters.

The AfD has also succeeded because of its anti-establishment rhetoric, and its communist past has left the country with mainstream political parties that are less deeply rooted in eastern Germany.

The AfD won in a few western German constituencies, but it only managed to do so marginally better than the second-most popular parties there.

Despite losing support in recent years, the Left has also gained popularity in eastern Germany. The Socialist Unity Party, which presided over East Germany until 1990’s reunification, has stronger ties to the country’s older electorates.

Will the AfD be part of Germany’s coalition?

Due to the AfD’s nationalist and far-right tendencies, mainstream parties have decided against joining forces with it. As such, Germany’s coalition options are now limited essentially to one, given the voting results.

With CDU leader Friedrich Merz serving as chancellor, a grand coalition of the CDU, CSU, and SPD is most likely to be the best choice.