Abdur Razzak, a 45-year-old banker in Bangladesh’s Faridpur district, believes the political party he supports has a real chance of taking over as the head of a ruling alliance for the first time in his life.
Campaigning for the Jamaat-e-Islami party’s “scales” symbol in his town, Razzak said people he was meeting with were “united in voting” for Jamaat, as the Islamist party is commonly referred to in the world’s eighth-most populous country, home to the fourth-largest Muslim population on the planet.
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Bangladesh is scheduled to hold a general election on February 12, the first vote since a student-led uprising toppled longtime former Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina’s government in August 2024.
She was replaced by Hasina’s interim government, which was led by Nobel Peace Prize laureate Muhammad Yunus. The upcoming election will feature a bipolar contest between the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) and an alliance formed by the Jamaat and the National Citizen Party (NCP), a group formed by student leaders of the 2024 uprising along with other Islamist parties.
Razzak’s confidence is fuelled by recent opinion polls that suggest the Jamaat is closing in on the BNP, its senior coalition partner for decades.
The BNP received 33 percent of the vote in a December survey conducted by the American-based International Republican Institute, with Jamaat coming in close at 29 percent. The BNP topped out at 34.7 percent and Jamaat at 33.6 percent, according to a new poll conducted by leading Bangladeshi organizations last week, including NarratiV, Projection BD, the International Institute of Law and Diplomacy (IILD), and the Jagoron Foundation.
If the Jamaat-led alliance is able to emerge victorious, it will be a dramatic turnaround for a party that was subjected to a brutal crackdown during Hasina’s 15-year government. In response to Hasina, Jamaat was banned, its top leaders were hanged or imprisoned, and thousands of members were forced to go missing or be taken into custody.
The International Crimes Tribunal, a contentious court that Hasina founded in 2010, was established to prosecute suspects for allegedly playing a role in crimes committed during Bangladesh’s declaration of independence from Pakistan in 1971.
Ironically, the same tribunal in November sentenced 78-year-old Hasina to death for ordering a crackdown on the 2024 protesters, killing more than 1, 400 of them. Hasina, her close ally, fled to India after the uprising, where she is now. New Delhi has so far turned down Hasina’s request to give her to the Yunus administration in spite of numerous appeals.
Resurgence after decades of repression
Jamaat backed Pakistan during the conflict in 1971, which is still controversial in Bangladesh today. The Islamist party has since become more assertive following Hasina’s escape from India during the uprising and the release of key Jamaat leaders.
“Our leaders and activists suffered throughout the Hasina years. Many of our leaders were put to death. Our political rights were violated, according to Razzak, who refers to Jamaat’s student wing, Islami Chhatra Shibir.
“Now, things have changed. People understand what we experienced, and they think we’re trustworthy. They will vote for us because of this, he said.
Founded by Islamist thinker Syed Abul Ala Maududi in 1941, during the British rule on the Indian subcontinent, the Jamaat evolved from a trans-regional Islamist movement into a distinct political force in Bangladesh.
The organization argued that a decision to secede from Pakistan would stifle Muslim political unity and alter South Asia’s power balance. Senior Jamaat figures sided with the Pakistani government in the conflict of 1971, and they even founded paramilitary organizations that demanded independence from Bangladesh.
Shortly after independence, the government of Sheikh Mujibur Rahman – Hasina’s father – banned Jamaat in 1972, until BNP founder Ziaur Rahman lifted the ban in 1979, when he was president. Jamaat gained a significant political standing over the following 20 years. In 1991, when Rahman’s wife Khaleda Zia became the first woman to serve as prime minister, it backed the BNP-led coalition.
It was during Khaleda’s government that the citizenship of prominent Jamaat leader Ghulam Azam, revoked after independence, was reinstated, giving the party a major boost. Jamaat formally joined the BNP-led coalition under Khaleda in 2001, and he also held two cabinet positions.
Hasina’s reign of setbacks came as a result of her government’s decision to order war crimes trials against senior Jamaat leaders at the International Crimes Tribunal, which her government established. Despite rights groups saying the tribunal’s proceedings violated due process, several Jamaat leaders, including former party chief Motiur Rahman Nizami and former Secretary-General Ali Ahsan Mohammad Mojaheed, were hanged.
The Jamaat leadership was destroyed by the crackdown, leaving the organization politically isolated for 15 years.
Since the uprising in 2024 and the lifting of the ban on it, Jamaat, which is currently led by chief Shafiqur Rahman, deputy chief Syed Abdullah Mohammed Taher, and secretary-general Mia Golam Porwar, has reorganized into a strong contender for the upcoming election.
Party leaders say the revival reflects not only public sympathy after years of repression, but a broader disillusionment with the country’s established political order.
Bangladesh has primarily been ruled by the Awami League and the BNP over the past 55 years, according to Jamaat deputy chief Taher. Many people are frustrated, and people have long experience with both. They want a new political force to govern”.
Jamaat quickly established itself as the BNP’s main challenger in the political vacuum created by the ban on Hasina’s Awami League. The recent student union elections, in which Jamaat’s student wing, Islami Chhatra Shibir, won important campus victories, have rekindled that momentum.
Taher told Al Jazeera that Jamaat has an estimated 20 million supporters, roughly 250, 000 of whom are registered members, known as “rukon”, including women. A young political party like the NCP wants to capitalize on the organizational strength of the party in the upcoming election.
Taher cited Jamaat’s appeal throughout Bangladesh as evidence of its resilience despite decades of political marginalization. The “public interest in the Jamaat” is “growing”, he added.
We think we can win a majority if this trend persists.
Concerns about the Islamist Party’s rise
Jamaat’s resurgence has also prompted debate over whether Bangladesh is prepared to be led by an Islamist force, which some fear could seek to enforce Sharia law or try to restrict women’s rights and freedoms.
However, Jamaat leaders refute these fears and promise to implement a reform agenda under the country’s secular constitution.
“We will accept and carry out agreed reforms when we come to power.” Where new laws are needed – for example, to ensure good governance and eliminate corruption – we will examine them at that time”, Taher said.
He also criticized Jamaat for imposing a “conservative” label, describing his party as a “moderate Islamist force” that seeks to rule through constitutional changes rather than ideological enforcement.
He claimed that the party’s alliance with the NCP, which was founded by 2024 uprising leaders, and with the Liberal Democratic Party, which was led by war hero Oli Ahmad, was a “unification of the spirit of 1971” with the movement’s 2024 roots, and was a result of a generational shift rather than ideological hard lines.
Jamaat is also seeking to broaden its appeal beyond its Muslim base. Krishna Nandi, a Hindu candidate from the city of Khulna, is a candidate for the party for the first time in its history because it has highlighted minority rights in an effort to draw in non-Muslim voters, who make up about 10% of Bangladesh’s majority-Hindu population.
While many Bangladeshis may be more religious than they were in the past, according to Asif Bin Ali, a geopolitical analyst and doctoral fellow at Georgia State University in the US, they are also “politically pragmatic, despite personal piety,” and prefer politicians to clerics.
“A sizeable part of the Bangladeshi society is moving in a more Islamist direction, but that is not the same as being ready to hand the state to a conservative Islamist leadership”, Ali told Al Jazeera.
The state would not be attempted along strictly Islamist lines because the center-left and center-right space are still significant.
The best chance for voters to land in Jamaat would be in using its Islamist identity, according to Thomas Kean, senior consultant for Bangladesh and Myanmar at the International Crisis Group. This would help voters dissatisfy voters who are dissatisfied with the BNP and Awami League.
At the same time, Kean cautioned that Jamaat’s past and some of its policy positions – particularly those related to its Islamist ideology – continue to deter many voters.
He predicted that Jamaat is on track to deliver its best-ever results in the upcoming election. I have a doubt about Jamaat’s chances of winning, though. We are talking about a party that has never won even 20 seats previously, or much more than 12 percent of the popular vote”.
Will the NCP-alliant alliance succeed?
Jamaat’s resurgence has also prompted debate over whether Bangladesh is prepared to be led by an Islamist force, which some fear could seek to enforce Sharia law or try to restrict women’s rights and freedoms.
However, Jamaat leaders refute these fears and promise to implement a reform agenda under the country’s secular constitution.
“We will accept and carry out agreed reforms when we come to power.” Where new laws are needed – for example, to ensure good governance and eliminate corruption – we will examine them at that time”, Taher said.
He also criticized Jamaat for imposing a “conservative” label, describing his party as a “moderate Islamist force” that seeks to rule through constitutional changes rather than ideological enforcement.
He claimed that the party’s alliance with the NCP, which was founded by 2024 uprising leaders, and with the Liberal Democratic Party, which was led by war hero Oli Ahmad, was a “unification of the spirit of 1971” with the movement’s 2024 roots, and was a result of a generational shift rather than ideological hard lines.
Jamaat is also seeking to broaden its appeal beyond its Muslim base. Krishna Nandi, a Hindu candidate from the city of Khulna, is a candidate for the party for the first time in its history because it has highlighted minority rights in an effort to draw in non-Muslim voters, who make up about 10% of Bangladesh’s majority-Hindu population.
While many Bangladeshis may be more religious than they were in the past, according to Asif Bin Ali, a geopolitical analyst and doctoral fellow at Georgia State University in the US, they are also “politically pragmatic, despite personal piety,” and prefer politicians to clerics.
“A sizeable part of the Bangladeshi society is moving in a more Islamist direction, but that is not the same as being ready to hand the state to a conservative Islamist leadership”, Ali told Al Jazeera.
The state would not be attempted along strictly Islamist lines because the center-left and center-right space are still significant.
The best chance for voters to land in Jamaat would be in using its Islamist identity, according to Thomas Kean, senior consultant for Bangladesh and Myanmar at the International Crisis Group. This would help voters dissatisfy voters who are dissatisfied with the BNP and Awami League.
At the same time, Kean cautioned that Jamaat’s past and some of its policy positions – particularly those related to its Islamist ideology – continue to deter many voters.
He predicted that Jamaat is on track to deliver its best-ever results in the upcoming election. I have a doubt about Jamaat’s chances of winning, though. We are talking about a party that has never won even 20 seats previously, or much more than 12 percent of the popular vote”.
Litmus test for ties to other countries
It is for these reasons that the forthcoming election – and how the Jamaat performs – could also prove to be a litmus test for Bangladesh’s relations with neighbouring countries, mainly India and Pakistan.
Following Hasina’s demise, which hasstrained Dhaka–New Delhi ties, a Jamaat-led government would have more trouble setting up relations with India, according to Kean of the International Crisis Group.
With Jamaat in power as opposed to the BNP, India is seeking a reset following the election. Domestic politics in both countries would make it very difficult for Jamaat and the BJP to work together”, Kean said, referring to Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s Hindu majoritarian Bharatiya Janata Party.
Regardless of which party is in power in Dhaka, Kean predicted that there will still be tensions with India over a number of “perennial issues,” including those relating to immigration, border security, and the sharing of water.
Bangladesh has also made steps to rekindle ties with Pakistan since Hasina’s fall in August 2024, including resuming diplomatic contact, pursuing new trade and transportation links, and making high-level official visits after years of tense contact.
Jamaat supporters say the February 12 vote is more than an electoral test. A party’s ability to convert organizational resilience into national legitimacy as a governing force is the subject of a referendum on whether it can do so after a long period of controversy and exclusion.
According to Khan, a professor at SOAS University, the outcome of the contest will depend more on promises of governance than ideology.
