The main obstacle to peace is Russia’s view of Ukraine’s refusal to accept its terms for a ceasefire.
Vladimir Putin, the president of Russia, is reportedly blocking a truce, as claimed by Kyiv and many of its European allies.
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A delegation from the United States flew to Russia on Tuesday for five hours of behind closed doors discussions with Putin. Steve Witkoff, the son-in-law of US President Donald Trump, and Jared Kushner, the group’s leader.
Yuri Ushakov, a Putin aide, acknowledged that “a lot of work lies ahead.” He described the meeting as “very useful and constructive.”
He said there was “no compromise” had been reached on territorial issues, calling Ukraine’s desire to join NATO a “key question.”
Since Moscow launched a full-scale assault on Ukraine in 2022, Ukrainian officials find Russia’s position absurd. Given the ongoing bombing of Ukrainian cities, they think Putin has no real interest in achieving peace.
Ilya Budraitskis, a Russian political scientist and visiting scholar at the University of California, Berkeley, reported to Al Jazeera, “These negotiations did not end in success, as was expected. They are based on fundamentally different ideas about what is happening between the Americans and the Kremlin.”
Putin doesn’t really care about the American effort to sell the idea of peace resting on the exchange of territories. He wants to alter Eastern Europe’s entire security system.
Russia’s “unreliable counterpart”: an analyst
However, some Russians support the Kremlin’s point of view and use similar expressions.
The Kyiv regime’s “progress toward a peaceful settlement,” “factual distortions, and attempts to delay the inevitable,” said Spartak Baranovsky, a political scientist and member of the Moscow-based Digoria Expert Club, a think tank whose positions largely align with those of the Russian government.
The Ukrainian side rejected the initial conditions of the Istanbul peace agreement after refusing to implement the Minsk agreements. He told Al Jazeera, “It is really difficult to strike up a productive conversation with such a lacked trustworthiness.”
In order to end the conflict in Donbas, where separatists supported by Russia were fighting the Kyiv government, the Minsk agreements were a number of treaties that were signed in 2014 and 2015. Numerous meetings between Russian and Ukrainian delegations in Belarus and Turkiye, all of which failed to bring about peace, took place after the full-scale invasion of 2022.
Russia’s general optimism that the war will end is palpable despite the lack of detailed information from this week’s meeting.
Tatyana, a 60s businesswoman from Saint Petersburg who declined to provide her full name, believes that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s European allies have pushed him to prolong the conflict.
What has the world come to when Trump, the only person who appears to be acting rationally in this situation, is by nature utterly insane? she inquired.
“Everyone is now in for a much worse situation. The advantage is obviously on Russia’s side, which the crude American generals and everyone else understand, despite the fact that a decision needs to be made.
Dmitry Peskov, a spokesman for the Kremlin, announced on Tuesday that Russian troops had finally taken control of the strategically important city of Pokrovsk in eastern Ukraine, putting an end to a two-year siege. In recent months, Ukraine’s forces have struggled to stop Russia’s advance in a number of regions despite the country’s claim that the city has fallen.
The proposed terms of an agreement that are being discussed include that Ukraine should withdraw its troops from the areas of the Donbass region, which will become a neutral demilitarized zone but be recognized as Russian territory internationally. The Crimean Peninsula and the Donetsk and Luhansk People’s Republics, which have been under Russian or pro-Russian rule since 2014, will also be recognized as Russia. Ukraine’s military capacity is set at 600,000, and it must abandon any plans to join NATO, but its application for EU membership will be taken into account.
Russia must also make a pledge not to invade any more European nations, which must be stipulated in its constitution. Additionally, a proposed war crime amnesty is proposed.
Putin stated last week that if Ukrainian troops leave the areas they occupy, the plan could serve as the basis for future agreements. We will accomplish our objectives militarily if they don’t.
According to sources, Ukrainian negotiators told their US counterparts over the weekend that giving up any territory was not a possibility.
Can Russia sustain itself for a long time?
Putin fully comprehends that Ukraine is in the dead of a long stretch, according to Washington, DC-based Russian economist Vladislav Inozemtsev.
Putin is therefore very confident in everything. He has some time. He has a year or two to fight. The West’s motivations and willingness to fight are more at fault. Yes, he is willing to wait until his conditions are met, but not until Ukraine is exhausted and given up.
Putin raised the stakes by threatening Europe before Tuesday’s meeting.
He warned that if Europe wants to and begins, we are prepared right now, even if Russia is not.
Putin will be preparing for this, just like he did before 2022, according to Budraitskis of the University of California, Berkeley, who said that the opposite was true when he said that Russia was not going to attack Ukraine.
Inozemtsev and Baranovsky both agree that Russia can continue to pursue a war effort indefinitely despite their divergent viewpoints.
“It’s not a problem at all to fight for years at such an intensity,” said Inozemtsev.
“We saw more problems than there are now because they needed to be mobilized, they now receive a fairly high salary from them, and [new volunteers] are constantly enlisting,” says one veteran. Additionally, they experienced issues with weapons, and some, particularly active commentators, predicted that shells would run out in three months. In fact, there is a greater level of munitions production now than there was before the war.
According to Inozemtsev, “the Americans are very determined to end this war or completely withdraw from any support for Ukraine.”
He added, “I believe that Kyiv has now been clearly informed of this.” The Ukrainians will therefore be persuaded that they are incapable of saving them, according to the statement. In the sense that, if the Americans are now completely eliminated, Europe will, of course, have no money or the willpower to continue to support this cause for years.
According to Inozemtsev, a deal might still be in Ukraine’s interests.
“In fact, this is the solution to the problem,” he said, “if they are able to guarantee themselves 600,000 for the army and a break for at least a few years.”
Putin will always be a threat, according to Putin, and the West’s main task will always be to surpass Putin’s 73-year-old. If the fighting lasts three to five years, he is already on the verge of passing away, which naturally lowers his moral standards.
Russian economic benefit will be benefited by any potential peace agreements and the lifting of sanctions, but Inozemtsev and Budraitskis doubt that things will turn around in the country in 2022. According to their forecasts, society will continue to be heavily militarized and tightly controlled.
Because we no longer have a direct threat from abroad, Budraitskis said, “There can be no peace, no return to a normal situation in which all these measures that correspond to a full-fledged repressive totalitarian dictatorship will be abolished.”
Putin’s regime in Russia was designed in this way, including how his power was organized, how his government operated, and how there was an endless war where Russian elites were consolidated under the flag and how any dissidents were subjected to repression inside the country.
He continued, citing the “normality” that Putin “established” in Russia after 2022 as an integral component of “war in any form” against Ukraine, Europe, the Baltic states, or “anyone.”
He predicted that the war would continue on various fronts to allow this regime to remain.
Some Russians have already made a long-term commitment.
