As Russia scurried across Ukraine with a barrage of missiles, drones, and bombs, at least five people were killed, according to officials, and more than 20 were hurt.
Russian air defenses shot down and neutralized 87 drones and seven missiles, according to the Ukrainian air force, who said on Saturday that Russia had fired 215 missiles and drones overnight.
Mayor Ihor Terekhov referred to the attack as “the most powerful” assault on the northeastern city of Kharkiv since Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, claiming that at least three people had died and 17 others, including two children, had been injured.
He claimed that four guided bombs, two missiles, and four guided bombs were fired at the city of 1.4 million people just 50 kilometers (30 miles) from the Russian border as early as dawn.
At 4:40 am (01:40 GMT), Terekhov wrote on Telegram that “drones are still circling above” as air raid sirens scurried across the city. Residential structures and the infrastructure of the civilian world were severely damaged.
A missile strike on Thursday that injured 18 people, including four children, also left the northeastern city.
An increase in attacks
Russian shelling also impacted the city of Kherson in the south, according to regional governor Oleksandr Prokudin, who confirmed that a couple was killed and residential structures were damaged. Two women, 45 and 88, were hurt in separate attacks in Dnipro.
At least six people were killed and dozens hurt on Friday when Russia launched an aerial bombardment across Ukraine, according to officials. The number of victims from Friday’s attacks has increased to seven thanks to the additional bodies found by rescuers in the city of Lutsk on Saturday.
Moscow claimed Friday’s assault was carried out in response to “terrorist acts” committed by Ukraine against Russia, claiming that targets were placed on military installations.
Following a Ukrainian drone attack last weekend that damaged nuclear-capable military aircraft at Russian airbases deep behind the front lines, including in Siberia, the Russian attack surge comes as a result of that incident. Vladimir Putin, the president of Russia, has said that the attack will be retaliated for using smuggled drones, which Kyiv reportedly planned for 18 months.
During talks in Istanbul on Monday, Ukraine pushed for a 30-day ceasefire and presented its most recent proposal. Moscow has disputed calls for a truce, saying that the conflict must be fought for the sake of the country.
According to Dmitry Peskov, a spokesman for the Kremlin, “for us, it is an existential issue.” It is “related to our national security, our country’s future, and our national interests.”
Kyiv has criticized Putin’s demands on Ukraine to leave four partially occupied regions, abandon its NATO ambitions, and halt all Western military cooperation. Instead, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, President of the United States, and himself have called for a three-way summit.
In Los Angeles, riot police and demonstrators squared off in the middle of a protest against federal immigration raids, sparking tense exchanges.
During raids throughout Los Angeles city earlier on Friday, immigration and customs enforcement (ICE) agents detained dozens of people.
As part of the operation, vans of uniformed federal agents and unmarked military-style vans streamed through the city.
According to the Los Angeles City News Service, ICE agents dug up several locations, including a Home Depot in Westlake District, a clothing store in the city’s Fashion District, and a clothing warehouse in South Los Angeles.
Anti-ICE slogans were spray-painted on the walls of the Edward R. Roybal Federal Building in downtown Los Angeles in response to the raids as protesters gathered outside a jail where some of the detainees were allegedly detained and chanted in protest.
Los Angeles Police Department (LAPD) officers were called in to halt the unrest, who did not participate in the immigration raids. After the protesters were given a Friday night order to disperse, LAPD officers confronted them with batons and tear gas rifles.
According to the Reuters news agency, some protesters reportedly hurled concrete at LAPD officers. Police reacted by spraying pepper spray and tear gas in volleys.
According to Reuters, LAPD spokesman Drake Madison claimed police on the scene had declared the gathering an unlawful assembly, meaning that those who didn’t leave the area could face arrest.
How many arrests have been made is not immediately known.
preventing fear and tyranny
Mayor of Los Angeles Karen Bass criticized the federal immigration raids, calling them “terrorists and disruptive of fundamental safety standards in our city.”
Only three lawyers have been granted access to the detention facility where they are being held to provide legal advice, according to National Day Laborer Organizing Network’s Caleb Soto. Between 70 and 80 people have been detained, according to Al Jazeera.
According to Soto, “the chaotic manner of the raids that we witnessed today happening throughout Los Angeles and various day-work places and garment worker work sites was an illustration of the Trump administration’s stated goal, which is to create as much fear as possible,” according to Soto.
He claimed that the ICE agents conducting the raids did not obtain the judicial warrant that was required by US law and that was granted by a judge if there was probable cause to arrest due to alleged criminal activity.
Soto claimed that ICE agents were “showing up at work sites where they know there are many immigrant workers” and “people without documents” and that they had a “reasonable suspicion” that the person had an undocumented status if they started running.
They begin arresting people who live there and nearby, using that as a pretext. That strikes us as being fairly unconstitutional, he said.
As part of President Donald Trump’s immigration crackdown, the Los Angeles raids are the most recent sweeps to occur in a number of US cities.
After taking office in January, Trump promised to detain and deport undocumented immigrants in record numbers.
According to state-run media reports, security forces in Myanmar have taken a six-year-old girl into custody along with 15 other people suspected of being involved in the killing of a retired army officer last month.
13 males and three females were detained in four different areas of Myanmar late last month, according to a report released by the state-run organization Global New Light of Myanmar on Friday.
Lin Latt Shwe, the six-year-old daughter of the alleged assassin, Myo Ko Ko, is among those detained, according to reports that she also had three other aliases. According to the newspaper report, the child and her parents were detained in Bagan, which is central to the country.
The Golden Valley Warriors, a well-known armed group that calls itself the Golden Valley Warriors, claimed responsibility for the killing of retired Brigadier General Cho Tun Aung, 68, on May 22 while he was shot outside his home in Yangon, the country’s commercial capital.
The owner of a private hospital, who is alleged to have treated the assassin, who was shot during the attack, is one of the other detainees.
The Golden Valley Warriors have disputed that the 16 people detained were part of their operation, according to independent news outlet The Irrawaddy.
On suspicion of being involved in the killing of retired Brig-Gen Cho Tun Aung in Yangon on May 22, the junta has detained 16 people, including a 6-year-old girl. The 16 are not related to them, according to Golden Valley Warriors, who claimed responsibility. #WhatsHappeningInMyanmar image twitter.com/dtTCEJ1bF0
The killing of former Cambodian ambassador Cho Tun Aung is the most recent attack on figures connected to the ruling military, which took control of the nation in 2021 after removing Aung San Suu Kyi’s democratically elected government.
Targeted assassinations have been carried out against senior civil servants, local officials, business associates of the ruling generals, and suspected informers in Myanmar since the coup and the start of the civil war.
Amid the relentless clatter of machinery, Ravi Kumar Gupta feeds a roaring steel furnace with scrap, blown metal and molten iron. He carefully adds chemicals tailored to the type of steel being produced, adjusting fuel and airflow with precision to keep the furnace running smoothly.
As his shift ends about 4pm, he stops briefly at a roadside tea shop just outside the gates of the steel factory in Maharashtra state’s Tarapur Industrial Area. His safety helmet is still on, but his feet, instead of being shielded by boots, are in worn-out slippers – scant protection against the molten metal he works with. His eyes are bloodshot with exhaustion, and his green, full-sleeved shirt and faded, torn blue jeans are stained with grease and sweat.
Four years after migrating from Barabanki, a district in the northern Indian state of Uttar Pradesh, Ravi earns $175 per month – $25 less than India’s monthly per capita income. And the paycheques are often delayed, arriving only between the 10th and 12th of each month.
Middlemen, who are either locals or longterm migrants posing as locals, supply labour to factories in Maharashtra, India’s industrial heartland. In return, the middlemen skim between $11 and $17 from each worker’s wages. In addition, $7 is deducted monthly from their pay for canteen food, which consists of limited portions of rice, dal and vegetables for lunch, as well as evening tea.
Asked why he continues to work at the steel factory, Ravi responds with resignation in his voice: “What else can I do?”
Giving up his job isn’t an option. His family – two young daughters in school, his wife and mother who work on their small plot of farmland, and his ailing father who is unable to work – depend on the $100 a month that he is able to send home. Climate change, he says, has “ruined farming”, the family’s traditional occupation.
“The rains don’t come when they should. The land no longer feeds us. And where are the jobs in our village? There’s nothing left. So, like the others, I left,” he says, his thick, calloused hands wrapped around a cup of tea.
Ravi is a cog in the wheel of the soaring dreams of the world’s fifth-largest economy. Prime Minister Narendra Modi has boldly spoken of making India a $5 trillion economy, up from $3.5 trillion in 2023.
But as Modi’s government woos global investors and assures them that it is easy today to do business in India, Ravi is among millions of workers whose stories of withheld wages, endless toil and coercion – telltale signs of forced labour, according to the United Nations’ International Labour Organization (ILO) – provide a haunting snapshot of the ugly underbelly of the country’s economy.
Workers load steel bars into a truck at a factory in Mandi Gobindgarh, in the northern state of Punjab, India, October 19, 2024 [Priyanshu Singh/Reuters]
Farm to furnace
The Factories Act of 1948, which governs working conditions in steel mills like the one where Ravi works, mandates annual paid leave for workers who have been employed for 240 days or more in a year. However, workers like Ravi do not receive paid leave. Any day taken off is unpaid, regardless of the reason.
Like many others, Ravi is required to work all seven days a week, totalling 30 days a month, despite the fact that Sundays were officially declared a weekly holiday for all labourers in India as far back as 1890.
Workers in many Indian factories do not receive a salary slip detailing their earnings and deductions. This lack of transparency leaves them in the dark about how much money has been deducted – or why.
Worse still, if a worker is absent for three or four consecutive days, their entry card is deactivated. Upon returning, they are treated as a new employee. This reclassification affects their eligibility for important benefits such as the provident fund and end-of-service gratuity.
In many cases, workers are forced to rejoin under these unfair terms simply because their pending wages – either direct from the company or via the middlemen – have not been paid. Walking away would mean forfeiting their hard-earned money.
In addition to all this, Ravi confirms that neither he nor his colleagues, both in his company and in nearby factories within the industrial area, have received any written contracts outlining their job roles or employment benefits.
According to a 2025 study (PDF) published in the Indian Journal of Legal Review, many workers face exploitation through unfair contracts, wage theft and forced labour due to the absence of written agreements. These practices particularly affect more vulnerable groups like migrants, women and low-skilled workers, who often have limited access to legal recourse. Al Jazeera contacted the Maharashtra Labour Commissioner on May 20 seeking a response to concerns around forced labour in industries where workers like Ravi are employed, but has not received a reply.
There is also the absence of adequate safety gear: Ravi works near the furnace, where temperatures cross 50 degrees Celsius (122 degrees Fahrenheit). But workers aren’t provided with protective glass. “Neither the middlemen nor the employer gives us even the most basic safety gear,” he says.
Yet, helplessness wins.
“We know how dangerous it is. We know what we need to stay safe,” he says. “But what choice do we have?
“When you’re desperate, you have no choice but to adapt to these harsh, uncertain conditions,” he said.
Workers sort shrimp inside a processing unit at a shrimp factory situated on the outskirts of Visakhapatnam in the southern Indian state of Andhra Pradesh, on April 10, 2025 [Sahiba Chawdhary/Reuters]
‘If I get thrown out, what then?’
In the port town of Kakinada, along India’s Bay of Bengal coast – about 1,400km (870 miles) from where Ravi works – 47-year-old Sumitha Salomi earns even less than him.
A shrimp peeler, Sumitha has no formal job contract with the factory where she works. Like many others, she has been hired through a contractor – a woman from her own village. The factory, a heavily fortified facility that exports peeled vannamei shrimp to the United States, employs migrant workers from the neighbouring state of Odisha and other regions. The premises are tightly guarded, and access is strictly controlled.
But in the villages where the factory’s workers live, a common story emerges: None of them have written contracts. No one has social security or health benefits. The only work gear they have are gloves and caps – not for their safety, but to maintain hygiene standards for the exported shrimp.
India exported shrimp worth $2.7bn to the US in the 2023-24 fiscal year, according to official figures.
Sumitha explains that her pay depends on the weight of the shrimp she peels. “The only break we get is about 30 minutes for lunch. For women, even when we’re in severe menstrual pain, there’s no rest, no relief. We just keep working,” she says.
She earns about $4.50 a day. She knows the precarity of her job. Her wages are handed to her in cash, without any payslip, leaving her with no way to contest what she receives.
As a divorced mother, Sumitha carries the burden of multiple responsibilities. She’s still repaying loans she took for her elder daughter’s marriage, while also trying to keep her younger daughter in school. On top of that, she cares for her elderly widowed mother who needs cancer medication that costs about $10 a month.
But she does not question the factory bosses about her working conditions or the absence of a written contract. “I have a job – contract or no contract. That’s what matters,” she says, her voice stoic.
“There are no other jobs here in this village. If I start asking questions and get thrown out, what then?”
Unlike seasoned veteran Sumitha, 23-year-old Minnu Samay is still grappling with the harsh realities of her job in the seafood industry.
Minnu, a migrant worker from the eastern state of Odisha, is employed at a shrimp processing factory located within the high-security Krishnapatnam Port area in Nellore, about 500km (310 mile) south of Kakinada.
Migrant workers like Minnu are allowed to leave the factory just once a week for about three hours, mainly to buy essentials in Muthukur, a village 10km (6 miles) from the factory. As she hurries through the narrow market lanes, picking up sanitary pads and snacks during this brief window of freedom, she tells her story.
“I was 19 when I left home. Poverty forced me. My parents were deep in debt after marrying off my two sisters. It was hard to survive,” Minnu says. “So when we met an agent in our town, he arranged this job here.”
Slowly, she has learned while on the job, cutting and peeling shrimp. Minnu earns approximately $110 per month.
“We know we’re being exploited, our freedom is restricted, we have no health insurance or proper rights, and we’re constantly under surveillance,” she says. “But like many of my coworkers, we don’t have other options. We just adjust and keep going.”
Most overtime work is not paid, she said. “We’re watched by cameras every moment, trapped in what feels like an open prison,” she says.
On May 20, Al Jazeera sent queries to the Andhra Pradesh Labour Department, and on May 22, to the Indian Ministry of Labour, seeking responses to concerns over widespread forced labour in industries where workers like Sumitha and Minnu are employed. Kakinada and Nellore are in Andhra Pradesh state. Neither the Andhra Pradesh Labour Department nor the federal Indian Ministry of Labour has responded.
Labour rights experts say that these stories lay bare the urgent need for enforceable contracts, the abolition of exploitative hiring practices and initiatives to educate workers about their rights – vital measures to combat forced labour in India’s unorganised and semi-organised sectors.
On March 24, India’s federal Labour Minister Shobha Karandlaje told parliament that approximately 307 million unorganised workers (PDF), including migrant workers, were registered under an Indian government scheme.
But researchers say that the true scale of India’s unorganised workforce is likely even larger.
A worker pours shrimp into baskets for quality check inside a processing unit at a shrimp factory situated on the outskirts of Visakhapatnam, in the southern Indian state of Andhra Pradesh, April 10, 2025 [Sahiba Chawdhary/Reuters]
‘Concealed’ forced labour
Benoy Peter, executive director of the Centre for Migration and Inclusive Development (CMID), a civil society organisation based in the southern Indian state of Kerala, cited a document (PDF) from India’s National Sample Survey Organization, which said that the country’s total workforce is approximately 470 million in strength. Of this, about 80 million workers are in the organised sector, while the remaining 390 million – more than the entire population of the United States – are in the unorganised sector.
The UN International Labour Organization’s India Employment Report 2024 (PDF) supports Benoy’s observation, stating that low-quality jobs in the informal sector and informal employment are the dominant forms of work in India. The ILO report said that 90 percent of India’s workforce is “informally employed”.
And many of these workers are victims of forced or bonded labour. India ratified the ILO’s Forced Labour Convention 29 in 1954 and abolished bonded labour in 1975. Yet, according to the Walk Free Foundation, India has the highest estimated number of people living in modern slavery worldwide, with 11.05 million individuals (eight in every 1,000) affected.
The real numbers, again, are likely worse.
In 2016, the then Indian Labour Minister Bandaru Dattatreya informed Parliament that the country had an estimated 18.4 million bonded labourers, and that the government was working to release and rehabilitate them by 2030.
But in December 2021, when Indian parliamentarian Mohammad Jawed inquired (PDF) about this target in parliament, the government stated that only approximately 12,000 bonded labourers had been rescued and rehabilitated between 2016 and 2021.
The textile sector is among the worst offenders.
According to a parliamentary document from March this year, the southern Tamil Nadu state led textile and apparel exports, including handicrafts, with a value of $7.1bn. Gujarat, Modi’s home state, followed in second place, exporting $5.7bn worth of these goods.
Thivya Rakini, president of the Tamil Nadu Textile and Common Labour Union (TTCU), says that in a decade of visiting factories to work with garment workers, she has, in almost all instances, seen at least one – and often multiple – indicators of forced labour as defined by the ILO. Those indicators include intimidation, excessive overtime, withheld wages, sexual harassment, and physical violence, such as slapping or beating workers for failing to meet production targets.
India’s textiles industry has around 45 million workers, including 3.5 million handloom workers across the country.
“Forced labour in the textile industry is widespread and often concealed,” Thivya says. “It’s not a random occurrence. It stems directly from the business model of fashion brands. When brands pay suppliers low prices, demand large volumes on tight deadlines, and fail to ensure freedom of association or basic grievance mechanisms for workers, they create an environment ripe for forced labour.”
Women make up 60-80 percent of the garment workforce, she says. “Many lack formal contracts, earn less than men for the same work, and face frequent violence and harassment,” she said. Many are from marginalised groups – Dalits, migrants or single mothers – making them even more vulnerable in a patriarchal society.
Other sectors are plagued by forced labour too. Transparentem, an independent, nonprofit organisation focused on uncovering and addressing human rights and environmental abuses in global supply chains, investigated 90 cotton farms in the central state of Madhya Pradesh from June 2022 to March 2023 and released its final report (PDF) in January 2025, uncovering child labour, forced labour and unsafe conditions: Children were handling pesticides without protection.
A woman works at a garment factory in Tiruppur in the southern Indian state of Tamil Nadu, on April 21, 2025. Experts say forced labour is particularly rampant in India’s textile industry [Francis Mascarenhas/Reuters]
‘No choice but to tolerate exploitation’
Between 2019 and 2020, the Indian government consolidated 29 federal labour laws into four comprehensive codes. The stated aim of these reforms was to improve the ease of doing business while ensuring worker welfare. As part of this effort, the total number of compliance provisions was significantly reduced – from more than 1,200 to 479.
However, while many states have drafted rules needed to implement these codes, there has still not been a nationwide rollout of these laws.
Supporters of the new labour codes argue that they modernise outdated laws and provide greater legal clarity. Critics, however, particularly trade unions, warn that the reforms favour employers and dilute worker protections. One of the codes, for instance, makes it harder to register a workers union.
A union must now have a minimum of 10 percent of the workers or 100 workers, whichever is less, in an establishment to be members of a union, a significant rise from the earlier requirement of just seven workers under the Trade Unions Act, 1926.
Santosh Poonia from India Labour Line – a helpline initiative that supports workers, especially in the unorganised sector, by offering legal aid, mediation and counselling services – tells Al Jazeera that if workers are barred from forming unions, that would weaken their collective bargaining rights.
“Without these rights, they will have no choice but to tolerate exploitative working conditions,” he says.
To Sanjay Ghose, a senior labour law lawyer practising at the Indian Supreme Court, the problem runs deeper than the new consolidated codes.
“The real issue is the failure to implement these laws effectively, which leaves workers vulnerable,” he says.
Ghose warns that India’s stagnating job creation could compound the exploitation and forced labour among workers.
India’s top engineering schools, the Indian Institutes of Technology (IITs), have long prided themselves on how the world’s biggest banks, tech giants and other multinationals queue up at their gates each year to lure their graduates with massive pay packages.
Yet, the percentage of graduates from the IITs who secure jobs as they leave school has dropped sharply, by 10 percentage points, since 2021, when the Indian economy took a major hit from COVID-19 – a hit it hasn’t fully recovered from.
“Even graduates with high ranks from premier institutions like the IITs are struggling to secure job placements,” Ghose says. “With limited options available, job seekers are forced to accept whatever work they can find. This leads to exploitation, unfair working conditions, and, in some cases, forced labour.”
Pramod Kumar, a former United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) senior adviser, adds that weakened private investment and foreign direct investment (FDI) have made national growth largely dependent on government spending. Consequently, job opportunities are primarily limited to the informal sector, where unfair working conditions are prevalent, leading to exploitation and forced labour.
Private sector investment in India dropped to a three-year low of 11.2 percent of gross domestic product (GDP) in fiscal year 2024, down from the pre-COVID average of 11.8 percent (fiscal years 2016-2020), according to ratings firm India Ratings & Research. Additionally, FDI in India declined by 5.6 percent year-on-year to $10.9bn in the October-December quarter of the last fiscal year, driven by global economic uncertainties.
Against that economic backdrop, Poonia, from the India Labour Line, says he can’t see how the government plans to meet its ambitious target of rescuing 18 million bonded labourers in India. He said he expects the opposite.
A monitor from the United Kingdom believes that North Korea’s internet access has experienced a significant downtime, but the exact culprit may be internal rather than a cyberattack.
Junade Ali, a researcher who monitors the North Korean internet, reported on Saturday that systems that monitor global internet activity do not register the secretive nation’s entire internet infrastructure.
All routes, whether they enter through China or Russia, are currently experiencing a significant outage on North Korea’s internet, according to Ali.
Although it’s difficult to determine whether this was intentional or unintentional, he said it seems like it’s internal rather than an attack.
Pyongyang maintains a number of government websites with access to the outside, including those for the Foreign Ministry and official news organizations like the Korea Central News Agency (KCNA). When Al Jazeera attempted to access these sites on Saturday morning, both of them were down.
It is believed that Chinese servers provide the majority of the country’s internet traffic and links.
North Koreans only have about 25 million people who have direct access to the global internet, according to estimates.
Kwangmyong, a highly regulated and carefully curated intranet, is available to citizens of North Korea when access to the authoritarian nation is strictly restricted.
In the past, the nation has been the target of cyberattacks, including one in January 2022 when American-based hacker Alejandro Caceres used distributed denial-of-service (DDoS) attacks to shut down every publicly accessible North Korean website.
Officials from the US and the UN have accused North Korean leader Kim Jong Un of running armies of hackers domestically as part of an expanding global cyber theft campaign.
Staying cool just got a little more expensive this summer. The price of coconut oil, a key ingredient in ice cream, has soared in 2025. Looking ahead, further price gains are likely as demand continues to outpace supply.
At the end of May, the wholesale price for Philippine coconut oil delivered in Rotterdam, an industry benchmark, reached $2,800 a tonne, roughly twice as much as the year before.
Adverse weather in Indonesia and the Philippines, which together account for three-quarters of global coconut oil supplies, has negatively affected production. Ice cream prices, in turn, have risen.
According to an analysis by RIFT, a British business consultancy, United Kingdom supermarket ice lollies and cones shot up by 7.6 percent in May.
Due to its high melting point, coconut oil keeps industrially made ice cream solid for longer at room temperature. Crucially for food companies, it does so without affecting ice cream’s flavour and texture.
The global ice cream industry, worth $81bn in 2024, is now paying close attention to the market dynamics affecting coconut prices.
What role has the weather played?
Coconuts are found in the tropics, where they benefit from lots of rain and sunshine. But the El Nino weather pattern, which produces warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures across the Pacific, led to drier weather across Southeast Asia, particularly from June last year to October.
During that period, coconut farms suffered from extreme heat and droughts. Because coconuts take a year to grow, last year’s weather pattern has meant that palm trees have yielded less fruit than normal in 2025, reducing supply.
The United States Department of Agriculture expects that unfavourable weather conditions will see global coconut oil production fall to 3.6 million tonnes in 2024-2025, down 5 to 10 percent from the previous season.
Output is also likely to stay low in the 2025-2026 season, according to analysts.
Are biofuels to blame too?
In October, the Philippine government mandated blending larger amounts of coco methyl ester, a fatty derivative of coconut oil, with diesel to produce biodiesel.
Until recently, the impact of the coconut-for-diesel policy was limited. A blending target of 1 percent was introduced in 2007 and then 2 percent from 2009. But that changed last year, when Manila hiked the target to 3 percent.
The government announced a further jump to 4 percent by late 2025 and 5 percent by the end of 2026. A 1-percentage-point increase requires an extra 900 million coconuts for the biofuels market, raising demand and prices.
Last year, Philippine Energy Secretary Raphael Lotilla said: “Implementing the higher biofuels blend is a win-win solution as we promote economic growth, uphold environmental stewardship and strive for cleaner energy utilisation.”
If the Philippine government carries out its plan, it will use 4.5 billion coconuts to generate the 500 million litres of coco methyl ester necessary to meet the biodiesel target by 2026. That would amount to nearly one-third of the country’s annual crop of 15 billion coconuts.
For context, the US diverts about 40 percent of its annual corn crop into its bioethanol, a fuel made primarily from fermented cornstarch designed to lower greenhouse gas emissions.
Are chocolates eating into coconut too?
In an effort to maintain profit margins and contain costs, increasing numbers of chocolate makers have started reformulating products with cocoa substitutes. One of those is coconut oil.
In December, the US ICE cocoa futures contract surged to a record $12,931 per tonne, up a staggering 177 percent from the same period the year before. Since then, prices have come down but continue to remain elevated.
The high price of cocoa – currently trending about $10,000 per tonne – continues to be supported by crop shortages and resilient consumer demand for cocoa-based products, especially chocolate.
Coconut oil is an established alternative for cocoa butter, particularly in vegan or dairy-free chocolate recipes. And even at its elevated price, coconut oil is still cheaper than cocoa.
“I expect many confectionery and chocolate makers to substitute cocoa for coconut oil in the near term,” Felipe Pohlmann Gonzaga, a Switzerland-based commodity trader, told Al Jazeera.
Platforms like TikTok and Instagram have become another source of demand. In recent years, coconuts have been extolled by celebrities like Gwyneth Paltrow and Kourtney Kardashian for their nutritional benefits.
Wellness Mama, a popular healthcare website, lists 101 uses for coconuts, including as a treatment for insomnia, heartburn, cuts, acne, haemorrhoids, mosquito bites and sunburn.
In the makeup and beauty market, coconut oil is seen as a natural and environmentally friendly alternative to palm oil. Here too, industrial consumption is rising.
While the health benefits of coconut oil continue to be questioned, this niche source of demand is rising. And although they wouldn’t have a big impact on their own, health-conscious buyers are entering an already tight market, lifting prices.
Can coconut production rise to meet the demand?
Despite coconut oil’s growing popularity, expanding production is a difficult task.
“Unlike with other crops, coconut farmers can’t simply add acres in response to higher prices,” Pohlmann Gonzaga says.
“It takes at least a year for the trees to reach maturity and production. Deforestation concerns and environmental laws also make expansion difficult,” he added.
Like palm fruit, coconuts grow on trees in tropical areas where forests would have to be removed to plant more trees.
“The European Union deforestation regulation, for instance, inhibits the destruction of biodiverse forests in order to import monoculture crops,” Pohlmann Gonzaga said.
He also pointed out that “we’re moving from El Nino to La Nina, which tends to bring more flooding in Southeast Asia. So planting, harvests and logistics will be impacted.”
With demand for coconuts likely to remain firm and supplies constrained, he added that he does not expect the prices to come down anytime soon.
“We can expect ice cream prices to be high this summer and stay high next year,” he said.