One of the most dramatic campaign changes in recent memory will take place on Monday in Canada.
The Conservatives had predicted a certain victory in January polls, but since then, the competition has gotten tighter under the microscope thanks to the Liberals’ recent upheaval. With more than 7.3 million ballots cast, early voting has broken records.
The Liberals are presumably going to win this, according to Frank Graves, president and founder of Canadian polling company EKOS Research. At the beginning of this year, that would have been utterly unthinkable.
Under the leadership of long-term prime minister Justin Trudeau, conservative leader Pierre Poilievre, who was perceived as a Trump-like figure, tapped into rising populism to combat the country’s economic crisis and inflation.
However, when Trudeau abruptly stepped down earlier this year, on January 6, opening the door for new Liberal leadership, and President Donald Trump’s second term, which threatened to endanger Canada’s economy with a trade war, things turned. Canadians suddenly unified around their opposition to Trump and their national identity.
The UK referendum and Donald Trump’s victory in the US were the result of populism, which argued that the corrupt elite needed to relinquish control of the people. A populist outlook is found in a study that Graham and others co-authored. According to Graves, Canadians watched Trump re-elect and questioned themselves, “Do we want to go down this populist path”?
If the Liberals win, he claimed, that Trump will win Canadian voters. It will undoubtedly be a rebuke to Trump and to populist practices like those seen in his administration.
How the race evolved
The US’s neighbor in the north has been significantly impacted by a leadership change.
Poilievre enjoyed unwavering popularity at the beginning of the year. He appeared to be facing off against Trudeau, who had been in power for nine years and had become incredibly unpopular, at some point in 2025.
Post-pandemic, incumbent Western democracies faced difficult elections due to pandemic restrictions, rising inflation, unaffordable housing, and political polarization. Trudeau did not differ from him.
In Canada, Poilievre was perceived as a “northern populism” player with a “northern populism” that was “a smaller share of the electorate than in the US,” Graves said. Pierre-Levi criticized Trudeau’s unpopular policies, including Canada’s carbon tax, with his punching bag.
Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland abruptly resigned, raising the question of Trudeau’s leadership. She claimed in a letter that Trudeau’s handling of the Trump administration’s “America First” economic nationalism and high tariffs was unacceptable. Trudeau had no choice but to step down, causing a Liberals’ leadership contest.
Trudeau’s resignation in Canada’s political system required the party to choose a new leader for the election this year. This meant that the Liberals remained in power.
Trump quickly imposed a 25% tariff on imports from Canada and Mexico while the party was in a leadership race. Trump repeatedly suggested that Canada should become the state number 51 at the same time.
Within the first few weeks of Trump taking office, the Liberals’ leadership race shifted, according to Lisa Young, a professor of political science at the University of Calgary, going beyond the unpopularity of the Trudeau government.
Mark Carney, who had previously served as governor of the Bank of Canada during the 2008 financial crisis and as governor of the Bank of England during Brexit and the pandemic, was elected by the Liberals on March 9. He was regarded as being wise on the economy.
Carney, who won a landslide, channeled his popularity by scheduling an election on April 28 — the shortest possible deadline for the election process.
Trump’s trade war is a possibility for Canada.
Trump’s sudden tariff increases have caused uncertainty in Canada’s economy. Automotive components, lumber, agricultural products, and steel are among the country’s exports that account for more than 70% of US exports.
Sylvanus Kwaku Afesorgbor, an associate professor at the University of Guelph in Ontario, said, “We are very dependent on the US.” Because our economy is largely dependent on the US economy, Canada’s economy may experience a significant economic recession.
As a result of Trump’s tariffs, Algoma Steel, Canada’s second-largest steel producer, announced layoffs in March. The close-knit city of Sault Ste Marie, Ontario, has the largest steel plant, and the community was deeply affected by the layoffs. Since 2015, the Liberals have been in the Sault Ste. Marie-Algoma district, but last year a steelworker debuted Trudeau in a campaign stop. Since then, both Poilievre and Carney have made city campaign stops.
According to Afesorgbor, voters who are affected by tariffs, like those who work in steel, will likely choose the party with the best economic cushion in the event of job loss. Who will be able to solve that problem if there is an economic crisis brought on by the Trump tariffs? He added that how voters think about how Trump’s party leaders’ negotiation skills translate to their own.
Afesorgbor claimed that Canadian voters are “very particular” about the economy and will pick a candidate who can withstand a recession and Trump’s trade war. He claimed that Mark Carney’s track record in the banking industry might make him a better candidate. That has significantly changed the Liberals’ support.
Liberals are in charge.
Trump’s policies toward Canada went beyond just having an economic impact. It posed a threat to many Canadians’ sense of national identity.
When you add President Trump’s comments about making Canada the 51st state, you realize that the tariffs were seen as an ally abandoning Canada. So that sparked a wave of nationalism unlike anything I’ve ever witnessed in my lifetime,” Young told Al Jazeera.
Poilievre’s outlook wasn’t particularly bright. Because a sizable portion of the electorate believes that Powell is too similar to Trump, she said, “that has essentially changed the political landscape.”
Graves noted a “profound transformation” in the results. Conservatives and Liberals were essentially tied in February, but in early March, as Canadians demanded, “How do we deal with this existential threat coming from Donald Trump?” . . said Graces.
Citizens are now more likely to vote for Carney because of the rising national pride, which could help Canada navigate the upheaval brought on by Trump. According to Graves, “The Liberals were the place where we planted our flag and declared, “We are going to remain a sovereign nation.”
Trump will be rebuked by Canadian voters.
As expected, the Liberals’ victory will indicate that Canada is charting its own course in relation to Trump, as opposed to Poilievre, who is seen as more accepting of the latter, according to Young.
Graves advised Americans to pay attention to the election in Canada, which has sparked similar concerns about identity and populist sentiment. Graves claimed that Canadians are enquiring about the party they want to elect rather than the party.
Do we want to follow this populist path, asks the question “underside that question are some of the issues about.” I believe that Canadians are pausing and examining and saying, “No, maybe that’s not where we want to take our country,” Graves said.
