Duterte legacy in the balance as he seeks return to Davao stronghold
In a potential last-ditch bid to save his family’s faltering political dynasty, former president Rodrigo Duterte has registered to run for the former mayor of the southern Philippine city of Davao.
After his family’s alliance with President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. began to deteriorate, the former president’s influence has decreased. His brutal “war on drugs” led to thousands of extrajudicial killings.
Duterte’s son, current Davao Mayor Sebastian Duterte, will be his father’s running mate.
Marcos Jr.’s successful presidential campaign was supported by the powerful political family in 2022, but the relationship between the two families has since broken down.
Sara Duterte, vice president, resigned from her position as education secretary in June and lost influence within the Marcos administration. She was once seen as a potential replacement for her father.
Her 79-year-old father is running for mayor as part of a global investigation into extrajudicial killings committed during the drug war. The ICC may issue a warrant of arrest later this year, according to lawyer Kristina Conti last month.
Duterte remains popular in Davao, long the family stronghold, but even there, his influence may be waning.
Apollo Quiboloy, a long-time Duterte ally and religious leader, was detained last month by Philippine authorities after being hid in a city compound. He is accused of child trafficking in both the Philippines and the United States. Marcos Jr.’s arrest was seen as a coup against the Dutertes.
Quiboloy, who calls himself the “Appointed Son of God”, announced on Tuesday that he would run for Senate in next year’s election.
“After Quiboloy’s arrest, the possibility of arresting]Duterte] through Interpol and local police that is outside the control of the Dutertes seems more likely”, said Tyrone Velez, a columnist for the local publication MindaNews.
Failed drug war
Sebastian Duterte announced in March that he would continue the drug war that his father had started. He had been mayor of Davao for about 20 years before taking the presidency and was known as “The Punisher” for his brutal policies. In the ensuing days, at least seven drug suspects were killed in police encounters.
Not long after Marcos Jr. responded, the Dutertes perceived the resumption of the drug war as a defiance act.
Hundreds of other police officers were fired in May from Davao police chief Richard Bad-ang, a close Duterte ally who had just been appointed to the position just before the killings. A probe into the seven deaths has also been announced by the regional police office in Davao.
After being replaced three times in a single day in a process deemed politically motivated by Sebastian Duterte, a new police chief was finally appointed in July.
Drug killings have decreased – but have not stopped – in the Philippines since Marcos Jr took power, and in recent months, he has called for a “bloodless” drug war.
According to the Dahas Project, an initiative of the University of the Philippines that tracks extrajudicial drug killings, 63 people were killed in the central region of Cebu in 2024 during anti-drug operations.
The Davao Police fatally shot a suspected drug dealer on September 17, marking the city’s first drug-related fatality since March, according to the Dahas Project.
Following criticism for his “lackadaisical leadership” and frequent absences from City Hall, Velez claimed that Sebastian Duterte probably wanted to restart the drug war to bolster his support there.
Velez, who uses a well-known nickname for Rodrigo Duterte, said, “His camp must have thought restarting the drug war might make him a Digong 2.0 and make him relevant.” However, it was postponed a week later.
As the world became aware of a potential ICC arrest warrant, the killings also occurred.
In 2019, Duterte withdrew the Philippines from the ICC. However, the court has since stated that it still has jurisdiction over alleged crimes, which means Duterte could still face charges for committing thousands of murders.
Closing in
According to Velez, removing pro-Duterte police officers has given Marcos Jr more control over drug operations and given them more authority, even within Davao.
“The Marcoses want police officers who are not influenced by the Dutertes in both the city and the Davao region.”
According to Aries Arugay, chairperson of the University of the Philippines’ Department of Political Science, Marcos’ national influence has “waned” in recent months due to the administration’s push to expel Quiboloy-like members of the government.
Quiboloy, who was Duterte’s spiritual adviser during his presidency, is himself a longtime player in Philippine politics. He supported Duterte’s 2016 campaign, lending the candidate his private jet, and supported Marcos Jr in 2022.
But as the Duterte-Marcos alliance frayed, Quiboloy used his television network, Sonshine Media Network International (SMNI), to broadcast misinformation and attack the Dutertes’s critics.
In 2023, SMNI’s YouTube channel was taken down by Google and its broadcast licence suspended by the Philippines’s telecommunications commission. SMNI’s Facebook page was also no longer available. Quiboloy asserted earlier this year that Marcos Jr. and his wife, Liza, were planning an assassination against Washington without any proof. Marcos rejected the allegations.
After organizing hundreds of his supporters’ human barricades to thwart searches inside the compound of his church, the Kingdom of Jesus Christ, Quiboloy, 74, was finally detained after a week-long operation.
After the domestic criminal case is over, Marcos Jr. has indicated that he is prepared to extradite Quiboloy to the United States.
According to Arugay, the Marcos administration wants to “transmit that they are serious about working with the US in a more thorough and comprehensive manner.” “He]Marcos] doesn’t want to be seen as weak”.
Quiboloy’s arrest and Duterte’s decision to run for mayor , have put Duterte and Marcos Jr on a collision course ahead of the country’s May 2025 congressional elections.
However, polls suggest Filipinos may be getting sick of the political feuds, and voters lack alternatives. According to a survey conducted by Pulse Asia last week, Marcos Jr.’s approval rating dropped three points to 50%, while Sara Duterte’s approval rating dropped by nine points to 60%.
“Filipinos do not like what they’re seeing, that they’re fighting and not working together”, said Cleve Arguelles, chief executive of the polling firm WR Numero Research.