According to experts, Europe is unprepared to stop a new chapter of Russian intelligence and military activity in the Baltic and North Seas.
They claimed that the continent is being unsupported by a growing rift between European and American intelligence services.
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The European Union summit last week served as an example. Russia’s attempt to finance Ukraine’s defense was foiled by Belgium’s attempt to boost Europe’s defense sector. In the summit’s conclusions, Russia’s “shadow fleet,” which is suspected of espionage and sabotage operations, was not mentioned.
One of the few US universities that teaches intelligence and national security, Joseph Fitsanakis, assistant director at the Center for Applied Intelligence at Coastal Carolina University, said, “Europe is no more ready to face Russia’s military advances than it was in 1939 as Nazi troops were at the door.”
He told Al Jazeera, “Front-line states like Finland, Poland, and the Baltics have no doubts about what is coming.” However, I worry that Western European populations are not even mildly aware of the dangers putting their security at risk because of internal divisions and Russian disinformation operations.
Russian intelligence has been accused of sabotage and propaganda campaigns aimed at dividing people since 2022.
According to Anna Wieslander, Northern Europe director for the Atlantic Council, a US think tank, “the hybrid warfare is about making us stressed, making us feel vulnerable in peacetime, and… exhausting us in a way toward the final goal that Russia has for Europe, which is a division again into spheres of interest,”
“Emergency of time”
On September 10, two dozen Russian Geran-2 drones entered NATO airspace to test Polish air defenses, giving rise to more overt alleged Russian activities.
Only three drones had crossed into Poland during the three and a half years of Ukrainian war.
Three Russian MiG-31 fighter jets flew over the Gulf of Finland for 12 minutes, and the alarm was raised in Europe. Estonian F-35s flew in search of them in a rush of Italian air.
Then, on September 21, Germany scrambled two Eurofighters to intercept a Russian Ilyushin 20-M reconnaissance aircraft in its Baltic Sea airspace without a flight plan or radio contact.
Two Hungarian Gripen fighters flew from Siaulai in Lithuania four days later to intercept a Su-30, Su-35, and MiG-31 “flying close to Latvian airspace.”
Russia has historically begun “special activities” during what Russian planners refer to as the “special period,” also known as the “period of emergency.” This phrase refers to a period of rising tensions just before the start of a full-fledged war, according to Fitsanakis.
Russian military is “actively preparing for war with NATO”
Since January 2024, Western intelligence services have warned that a NATO-Russian conflict might break out within five to eight years.
This could occur sooner, according to Martin Jager, head of Germany’s Federal Intelligence Service.
He told lawmakers, stating that Europe was facing “a new quality of confrontation” and that “we must not sit back and assume that a potential Russian attack will not occur until 2029 at the earliest.”
Demetries Andrew Grimes, a decorated veteran US special forces commander, described the “period of emergency” as “testing responses, gathering intel, and blurring civilian-military lines,” adding that Europeans refer to it as “phase zero.”
The Russian military is actively preparing for war with NATO, according to Fitsanakis, along with the Russian intelligence community.
The Kremlin has refuted claims that Russia is to blame for drone attacks in recent weeks and claims that Europe is to blame for igniting hysteria.
A Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs official on Saturday, Rodion Miroshnik.
A senior official in affairs told the Tass news agency that Europe has “unfortunately assumed a hawkish position.”
He claimed that European politicians were attempting to “prevent direct bilateral contact between Russia and Ukraine, between Moscow and Washington, just to settle the conflict’s issues.”
fragmented responses
Everything is being allegedly used as weapons in Russia’s alleged war preparation, according to analysts.
Russians’ “shadow fleet,” which is a group of oil tankers that are pursuing sanctions, is suspected of operating drones in the Baltic Sea and carrying information to intercept NATO communications.
After the Russian tanker was alleged to have launched drones, French commandos seize the Boracay on October 2. A drone swarm that occurred 80 kilometers (50 miles) south of Copenhagen in late September caused the city’s airport to close, and it then traveled off the coast of Denmark when several regional airports reported drone swarms.
According to observers, nations that rely on Chinese surveillance to track drones could also face collusion with Moscow and Beijing. On September 22 when Oslo Airport was impacted by a drone swarm, Norwegian’s Chinese-built drone detection system was taken offline by its manufacturer, DJI Aeroscope.
According to experts, drones continue to threaten infrastructure, including airports and oil and gas terminals.
Polish F-16s, Dutch F-35s, and Italian airborne early warning and control (AWAC) planes immediately intercepted Russian drones in Poland, but they only used high-cost combat aircraft. Ukraine has experimented with mobile fire trucks, pickup trucks, antidrone unmanned aerial vehicles, and man-portable air defense systems. It is currently getting ready to use helicopters.
Poland is transferring lessons from Ukraine. It contracted Ukrainian combat veterans to train Polish drone pilots days after the incursion, and it has forewarned Russia that it will shoot any unrecognised object over the land. Poland, however, belongs to a group of eastern NATO nations that are more vocal and active about Russia’s alleged threats.
Danish authorities have yet to confiscate one of the older tankers, despite promising to do so in terms of environmental and insurance compliance.
Wieslander, a Stockholm-based journalist, claimed that the Nordic and Baltic nations could act “on a much larger scale” to combat the “shadow fleet” and that “it would actually hit Russia where it is vulnerable and where it feels it.” He laments, however, that there hasn’t been a coordinated strategy for this.
“We urgently need unified sanctions, massive counterdrone investments matching innovations, EU-wide merchant fleet inspections or bans, and boosts to Baltic surveillance,” Grimes said.
On which side does the US stand?
For satellite surveillance and eavesdropping of large-scale signals, European intelligence has relied on the US.
Recently, it was revealed that US intelligence played a key role in Ukraine’s successful attack on Russian refineries. To evade Russian air defenses, US information was used to choose targets, timing, and route planning.
Fitsanakis claimed that the quality of that collaboration is deteriorating.
An utterly dysfunctional political elite is using American intelligence services as political pawns while denying that the Russian threat is a priority.
Dutch intelligence recently stated that it is restricting the communication with US services, and that it is not the only European agency doing this.
According to Fitsanakis, “European intelligence agencies have long stopped sharing important information with Washington,” which would indicate concern about the potential exposure of their networks.
He claimed that politics are the root of the issue.
The United States’ approach to the war is so inconsistent at this point that its proclamations, which appear vacillating depending on the day, have essentially no strategic significance.
In other words, it’s unclear which side the US is running.
The trust of Europeans in Washington’s commitment to its allies and the rule of law has been undermined by US threats against Greenland, a sovereign Danish territory, and Canada.
