We’re witnessing a coordinated war against the entire nation, it seems. Tohid Asadi of Al Jazeera reports that Israel has been attacking Iran’s nuclear facilities and civilian areas from Tehran.
Donald Trump, the head of the United States, said to reporters that he thought Iran was “very close” to developing nuclear weapons as he left the Group of Seven summit in Canada on Tuesday.
This contradicted US intelligence reports. Tulsi Gabbard, Trump’s director of national intelligence, unmistakably told US lawmakers that Iran was not pursuing nuclear weapons on March 25.
According to her, “The intelligence community continues to determine that Iran is not developing nuclear weapons, and that Supreme Leader [Ali] Khamenei has not authorized the nuclear weapons program he suspended in 2003,” she said, referring to a group of US spy agencies that collaborate to conduct these assessments.
Trump’s latest remarks also mark a shift from his position on Iran last month when he said the US and Iran were close to securing a deal on Iran’s nuclear programme.
Trump’s views on Iran’s nuclear capabilities and whether the US is ready to engage in its conflict with Israel have changed even through the course of the Iran-Israel conflict, which was in its seventh day on Thursday.
Iranian military and nuclear installations were attacked by Israel on Friday, but Trump administration officials later confirmed that the US was not involved.
Since then, however, Trump has indicated that the US might become involved in Israel’s conflict with Iran, leaving allies and adversaries guessing what the next action will be. Israel wants US assistance in particular in supplying “bunker buster” bombs that would allow its forces to elude the mountainous Fordow nuclear facility in northwest Iran.
Trump declined to specify whether the US would support the conflict on Wednesday.
“I may do it. I’m not sure if I do it. He told reporters outside the White House, “Nobody knows what I’m going to do”.
Later, Trump said Iranian officials wanted to visit Washington for talks. He claimed that although such discussions are “a little late,” “we may do that.”
Many in Trump’s MAGA base, which is named after his campaign slogan, “Make America Great Again,” are concerned about his dovish stance toward Iran. Those concerned supporters believe US involvement in a fresh war goes against Trump’s campaign promise of putting America First and of staying out of conflicts involing others.
Since resuming his presidency in January, how has Trump’s position changed:
Trump’s presidential memorandum on national security, which “requires absolute pressure” on Tehran, was released on February 4th, with the intention of “denying Iran all paths to a nuclear weapon” and “containing Iran’s malign influence abroad.
Trump made it clear that he was reluctant to use force, preferring to seek a diplomatic solution through negotiations.
While the memorandum lacked details on what “maximum pressure” would entail and hinted that measures could be tough, Trump also said he was “torn” and “unhappy” about signing it and added that he hoped “it’s not going to have to be used in any great measure at all”.
Trump’s diplomatic stance appeared to be holding during his Gulf tour last month. Trump said the US had engaged in “very serious negotiations with Iran for long-term peace”. He added that Tehran and Washington “kind of” agreed on the nuclear deal’s terms.
“We’re on the verge of making a deal.” … There]are] two steps to doing this: There is a very, very nice step, and there is the violent step, but I don’t want to do it the second way”, he said.
Trump launched the attack on social media two days after making claims that he was close to reaching a nuclear deal with Iran. The hundreds of attacks being made by Houthi, the sinister mobsters and thugs based in Yemen, who are hated by the Yemeni people, all emanate from, and are created by, IRAN”, Trump wrote.
The Iran-backed Houthis in Yemen launched attacks on Israeli-linked shipping in the Red Sea and Israel itself over Israel’s ongoing conflict with Gaza in recent months.
On May 28, Trump seemed to have reversed this stance again, however, when he said he had told Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to hold off on any strike on Iran because it “would be inappropriate to do right now because we’re very close to a]diplomatic] solution]on Iran’s nuclear status]”.
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said in a statement that “Israel unilaterally attacked Iran tonight. We are not involved in strikes against Iran and our top priority is protecting American forces in the region”.
Rubio continued, “Let me be clear: Iran shouldn’t harm US personnel or interests.”
On Tuesday, Trump’s anti-Iran rhetoric switched gears again. Unconventional SURRENDER is a phrase he made on his Truth Social platform about Iran!
He cited Khamenei as saying in a separate post that “we know where the so-called ” Supreme Leader ” is hiding.” He is an easy target, but is safe there – We are not going to take him out (kill! for the time being, at least not yet. However, we oppose firing missiles at American soldiers or civilians. Our patience is wearing thin. I appreciate you paying attention to this issue.
Trump stated to reporters that he preferred a ceasefire between Israel and Iran over a real solution to the Iran-related nuclear debate, which Tehran denies.
The White House released a statement saying Trump has “never wavered in his stance that Iran cannot be allowed to have a nuclear weapon”. Trump said Iran should not possess nuclear weapons from 2011 to Tuesday, according to the statement.
Trump said, “I may do it,” when questioned on Wednesday about potential US involvement in the Iran-Israel conflict. I’m not sure if I do it. I mean, nobody knows what I’m going to do”.
Iran has argued that its nuclear program is entirely peaceful and is only intended for civilian purposes, citing a Khamenei religious edict that forbids the production of weapons because it is against Islamic law.
On Wednesday, Khamenei rejected Trump’s calls for surrender in his first televised message since Israel began its attacks on Iran. According to Khamenei, “any US military intervention will undoubtedly result in irreparable harm.”
Iran’s nuclear facilities have a 60% uranium enrichment rate, which is close to the 90 percent required to produce nuclear weapons.
However, like US intelligence reports, the United Nations nuclear watchdog also said it has found no evidence of Iranian nuclear weapons production. The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) director general, Rafael Grossi, stated that “we did not have any proof of a systematic effort to move into nuclear weapons.”
Tensions were generally high between Iran and Trump during the US president’s first term:
Trump made the announcement in 2018 that the US had withdrawn from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, a 2015 nuclear agreement between Iran and a group of nations led by the US, in 2015. The group also consisted of the European Union, China, France, Germany, Russia and the United Kingdom.
In exchange for the complete lifting of sanctions, the agreement prohibited uranium enrichment at Fordow and limited nuclear technology’s peaceful development in Iran for energy production. For fifteen years, Iran agreed to abstain from any uranium enrichment or research at Fordow. It also agreed not to keep any nuclear material there but instead to “convert the Fordow facility into a nuclear, physics and technology centre”.
But since then, tensions between Iran and the US have grown.
A US contractor was killed and several US service members were hurt in a rocket attack on an Iraqi military base in December 2019, along with Iraqi military personnel. US officials blamed the Iran-backed Iraqi armed group Kataib Hezbollah for the attack.
The US military attacked locations in Iraq and Syria in response to Kataib Hezbollah’s attacks the same month.
In a drone strike in Baghdad on January 3, 2020, the US killed Qassem Soleimani, the leader of Iran’s elite Quds Force. The White House claimed that this action was taken to prevent Iranian attack plans in the future because Soleimani was accused of “actively developing plans to attack American diplomats and service members in Iraq and throughout the region.”
On January 9, 2020, Trump said Soleimani had been killed “because they were looking to blow up our embassy” in Baghdad.
If Iran attacked the US or its assets, the US also threatened to severely attack Iranian websites. 40, 000 to 50, 000 soldiers are stationed at 19 military installations in the Middle East, according to the US.
In March 2020, three soldiers belonging to a US-led coalition were killed in a rocket attack at the Taji military base housing US and coalition troops near Baghdad. Iran is now the subject of a new round of sanctions from the US.
“This man absolutely ought not to be around forever.” Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the supreme leader of Iran, was threatened by Israel’s defense minister after Iranian missiles struck Israel. Numerous injuries were caused by the missiles, which also damaged a hospital, a high-rise, and several residential structures.
Iranian TV host’s live broadcast was interrupted by an Israeli bombing, and Israeli social media users made up videos that imitated her clothes and reaction to the attack that went viral. Some people criticized the videos as “despicable” displays of war crimes.
According to a joint statement from the two nations and the US Department of State, Rwanda and the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) have signed a provisional agreement aimed at bringing an end to the conflict in eastern DRC.
Following “three days of constructive dialogue regarding political, security, and economic interests,” the statement said, the development occurred late on Wednesday in Washington, DC.
Disarmament, non-state armed group integration, and the return of refugees and internally displaced people are among the issues that the draft agreement addresses.
Armed groups fighting for access to natural resources have been rife in Eastern DRC for decades. The largest city of Goma, the mineral-rich area’s largest city, was taken over by the Rwanda-backed M23 rebel group in January. The group seized Bukavu, a strategic town, a few weeks later. Rwanda denies supporting the rebels.
Since the conflict started to escalate earlier this year, thousands of people have been killed in the area and hundreds of thousands have fled.
A number of conflict-related parties have been accused of violating human rights.
Amnesty International accused M23 of torturing and killing civilians in a report that was released in May.
According to Amnesty, “These acts may amount to war crimes because they violate international humanitarian law.”
The UN High Commissioner for Human Rights Volker Turk claimed on Monday that rebels, DRC troops, and allies have all committed human rights violations.
Turk urged all parties to “commit to a ceasefire, resume negotiations, and respect international humanitarian and human rights law.”
The US hopes to put an end to the conflict and allow Western investors to invest billions of dollars in eastern DRC, which has large cobalt, copper, gold, and lithium reserves.
The “win-win” scenario, according to US Secretary of State Marco Rubio, includes the two objectives of peace and investment.
US envoy to Africa, Massad Boulos, traveled to Rwanda and the DRC in April as part of the diplomatic mission. He urged Kigali to stop supporting the M23 rebels during his visit.
Since 2021, the African nations have reached at least six truces, but none have been lasting.
In March, Angola resigned from its mediatorship, and the US and Qatar are currently leading efforts to bring about peace in the eastern DRC.
As Israel and Iran carry out strikes against each other for a seventh straight day, the region is anxiously bracing for a potentially wider conflict. But question marks remain over the two sides’ ability to finance a sustained war effort.
On Friday, Israel killed several of Iran’s top military commanders and nuclear scientists and damaged some of its nuclear sites. It has since damaged parts of Iran’s fossil fuel sector. In response, Iran has launched missile attacks at government buildings and metropolitan areas in Israel.
As of Thursday, the Israeli attacks have killed 240 people while Iranian strikes have killed at least 24 people.
But the conflict is also costing both nations billions of dollars and could choke their economic growth and trigger concerns over long-term fiscal planning.
Israel’s prolonged military operations in Gaza since October 2023 and the recent escalation with Iran have plunged the country into the most expensive period of conflict in its history.
According to a January report by the Israeli business newspaper Calcalist, the cumulative cost of the Gaza war alone had reached 250 billion shekels ($67.5bn) by the end of 2024.
A June 15 report by the Israeli news outlet Ynet News, quoting a former financial adviser to the Israeli military’s chief of staff, estimated that the first two days of fighting with Iran alone cost Israel 5.5 billion shekels (roughly $1.45bn). At that rate, a prolonged conflict with Iran could see Israel surpass the end-2024 Gaza war expenses within seven weeks.
Even before the current escalation with Iran, Israel had dramatically increased its defence budget amid its multiple regional conflicts and the war on Gaza. From 60 billion shekels ($17bn) in 2023, it grew to 99 billion ($28bn) in 2024. Projections for 2025 suggest it could reach 118 billion shekels ($34bn).
The Ministry of Finance set a deficit ceiling of 4.9 percent of Israel’s gross domestic product (GDP) for this fiscal year, equating to 105 billion shekels ($27.6bn). Higher military spending would put that to the test.
Despite a recent increase in projected tax revenues – from 517 billion to 539 billion shekels ($148bn to $154bn) – Israel’s 2025 growth forecast has been revised down from 4.3 to 3.6 percent.
According to the business survey company CofaceBDI, roughly 60,000 Israeli companies closed in 2024 due to manpower shortages, logistics disruptions and subdued business sentiment. In addition, tourist arrivals continue to fall short of pre-October 2023 levels.
Those trends could be aggravated in the event of a full-fledged war with Iran.
S&P Global Ratings issued a stark warning about the vulnerability of the Israeli economy on Tuesday.
The agency stated that a continued Israeli war campaign, particularly if met with a sustained and strategic Iranian response, could lead to a downgrade of Israel’s credit rating from A to A-. Were that to happen, it would likely raise borrowing costs and soften investor confidence in the Israeli economy.
In recent days, Iran’s oil exports appear to have fallen dramatically. Total Iranian crude and condensate oil exports are forecast to reach 102,000 barrels per day (bpd) in the week ending on Sunday. That’s less than half the 242,000 bpd it was averaging in exports this year, according to data from the analytics firm Kpler.
Critically, exports from Kharg Island, from which Iran exports more than 90 percent of its oil, appear to have completely halted since Friday. No tankers were anchored at Kharg Island on Monday, according to LSEG satellite ship tracking data.
In 2025, Iran has produced an average of 3.4 million bpd of crude, according to the United States Energy Information Administration (EIA), with China appearing to be the main foreign buyer. Most of the oil Iran produces is for domestic consumption.
On Saturday, Iran partially suspended gas production at the South Pars gasfield in the Gulf after it was hit by Israeli missiles. South Pars, which Iran shares with Qatar, is the world’s biggest gasfield. It produces about 80 percent of Iran’s total gas output.
For now, the extent of the damage to the South Pars field is unknown. In addition, Israel has targeted the Shahr Rey refinery outside Tehran as well as fuel depots around the capital. The full impact of these strikes on production is unknown.
Iran has faced economic sanctions from the US after the Islamic Revolution and the US embassy hostage crisis in 1979 and then over its nuclear programme.
In a bid to pressure Tehran to agree to a deal on its nuclear programme, the administration of then-US President Barack Obama coaxed multiple major economies around the world to cut down or stop their oil purchases from Iran, using a wave of additional sanctions.
Those sanctions were relaxed after Iran struck the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) deal in 2015 with the US, Russia, China, France, Germany, the United Kingdom and the European Union.
The following year, Iran exported 2.8 million bpd of petroleum products.
But US President Donald Trump reimposed the sanctions in 2018 during his first term as president and added more, again pressuring most other nations to stop buying Iranian crude. The result, according to the EIA, was that Tehran generated only $50bn in oil export revenue in 2022 and 2023, which amounts to roughly 200,000 bpd of crude exports, less than 10 percent of 2016 levels.
The upshot is that sanctions have gutted Iran’s foreign exchange earnings.
Iran has staved off economic collapse in part thanks to China, the main buyer of its oil and one of the few nations still trading with Tehran.
Still, the loss of revenue because of the sanctions has deprived the country of long-term economic development and has hit Tehran’s ability to fix dilapidated infrastructure.
President Masoud Pezeshkian has repeatedly highlighted the severity of the economic situation facing the country, stating that Tehran’s situation is more challenging than during the Iran-Iraq War in the 1980s.
In March, he openly criticised the latest round of US sanctions targeting tankers carrying Iranian oil.
Iran also faces a string of other constraints – energy and water shortages, a collapsing currency and military setbacks among its regional allies – all amplified by the sanctions.
A lack of investment, declining natural gas production and inefficient irrigation are all leading to power blackouts and water shortages.
Meanwhile, the rial, Iran’s currency, has shed more than 90 percent of its value against the dollar since the sanctions were reimposed in 2018, according to foreign exchange websites.
And while the official inflation rate hovers around 40 percent, some Iranian experts said it is actually running at more than 50 percent. “Precise numbers are hard to come by,” said Hamzeh Al Gaaod, an economic analyst at TS Lombard, a political research firm.
“But what we can say is that years of sanctions have triggered inflationary pressure, including through devaluations of the rial. In turn, that makes goods imports from abroad more expensive,” Al Gaaod told Al Jazeera.
In January, the Tasnim news agency quoted the head of Iran’s Institute of Labor and Social Welfare, Ebrahim Sadeghifar, as saying 22 to 27 percent of Iranians were now below the poverty line.
Unemployment is running at 9.2 percent. However, Iran’s Supreme Assembly of Workers’ Representatives, which represents labour interests, estimated the true figure of people without access to subsistence-level work is far higher.
According to Al Gaaod, Tehran has a “relatively small budget for military purposes”. He estimated that anywhere from 3 to 5 percent of Iran’s GDP is spent on defence, which amounts to roughly $12bn.
Tehran does have $33bn in foreign exchange reserves it could theoretically draw on. But Al Gaaod said: “This is where Iran is on the backfoot. To use reserves for short-term military conflict would cripple them over the longer term.”