Beirut, Lebanon – A new president. A new prime minister. And the sense that Hezbollah, arguably the most powerful group in the country, has been weakened.
It has been a potentially transformative few weeks in Lebanon, particularly when taken in the context of a political system that often appears frozen.
The developments have been a cause for celebration among many Lebanese, but they also could lead to questions for the entire political class, including Hezbollah.
Hezbollah, a Shia political group and militia, has dominated Lebanon for the better part of the past two decades. But in the past few months, it has suffered numerous setbacks, including the loss of most of its senior members, including its leader Hassan Nasrallah, in its war with Israel and subsequently the fall of its staunch ally, Bashar al-Assad’s regime in Syria.
“Hezbollah still has legitimacy,” Ziad Majed, a Lebanese political researcher, told Al Jazeera. “It will have to accept to be a strong – and it will be strong – Lebanese party like all the others but without the ownership of the decision of war and peace. ”
Hezbollah’s ‘hand cut off’
Hezbollah helped Joseph Aoun get the required number of votes to become president by backing him in the second round of voting on January 9. But the group, which had planned to support incumbent Najib Mikati in the vote for prime minister on January 13, abstained after it became clear Nawaf Salam, the former president of the International Court of Justice, would win.
Hezbollah MP Mohammad Raad said the group had extended a hand to the nation by voting for Aoun but Salam’s nomination saw that “hand cut off”.
The Iranian-backed group feels that many of its opponents in government are taking advantage of the losses it suffered in Israel’s war on Lebanon.
In his first speech as prime minister-designate, however, Salam promised to unite the Lebanese people and spoke to issues that impact the Shia community deeply after Israel’s war on the country. Israel’s attacks on Lebanon focused predominantly on areas with high Shia populations, even in areas where many locals said Hezbollah military infrastructure or fighters were not present, including southern Lebanon, much of the Bekaa Valley and Beirut’s suburbs widely referred to as Dahiyeh.
Much like Aoun’s speech a few days earlier, Salam said he would work to make sure Israel’s military withdraws “from the last occupied inch of [Lebanese] land” and the areas impacted by Israel’s devastating attacks would be rebuilt.
“Reconstruction is not just a promise but a commitment,” he said.
“He is smart enough to find the appropriate ways to try to be inclusive,” Karim Emile Bitar, an international relations professor at Saint Joseph University in Beirut, told Al Jazeera. “I do not think he will try to exclude the Shia constituency from participating in government and state building, but this is a decision the Shia parties have to make. ”
Hezbollah is, however, in a precarious position. For years, Hezbollah and its allies were politically and militarily influential enough to block decisions they opposed, such as government formations that didn’t satisfy their needs. In one of the most well-known examples of the group’s power, Hezbollah deployed fighters to the streets of Beirut in May 2008 after the Lebanese government ordered the dismantling of the group’s private telecommunications network, forcing the state authorities to backtrack.
But the fall of the al-Assad regime in Syria has made receiving weapons more difficult and removed a key regional ally for the group.
Monopoly on weapons
Under the terms of the ceasefire with Israel, Hezbollah is supposed to move north of the Litani River, which runs across southern Lebanon from north of Tyre in the west to just south of Marjayoun in the east, and the Lebanese army is to deploy in southern Lebanon after the Israelis withdraw from the territory.
Hezbollah has said its military infrastructure must only be removed from the south, but Israel has recently attacked targets north of the Litani that it said are associated with Hezbollah. However, some officials in Israel and the United States – and even Lebanon – have said Hezbollah’s military infrastructure should be targeted anywhere in Lebanon. This leaves questions over whether all parties have the same understanding of the ceasefire.
Aoun and Salam have both spoken about the state having a monopoly on weapons and deploying to southern Lebanon, a clear message to Hezbollah that its military supremacy may be over.
Whether Hezbollah will accept that is a different matter. On Saturday, Hezbollah Secretary-General Naim Qassem warned that Hezbollah must be included in any incoming government.
“[No one can] exclude us from effective and influential political participation in Lebanon as we are a fundamental component of the country’s makeup and its renaissance,” Qassem said before adding that no force was able to “take domestic advantage of the results of the [Israeli] aggression, for the political path is separate from the situation of the resistance [Hezbollah]”.
Lebanon’s new leaders have promised to ensure Israel withdraws from every centimetre of southern Lebanon and to rebuild its destroyed homes and villages in what analysts believe is an effort at extending a hand to the Shia community.
Hezbollah is under pressure from its constituencies in the south, the Bekaa Valley and Dahiyeh to rebuild their homes and lives. For that, analysts said, Lebanon will need international aid. This could lead Hezbollah to accept the new political direction for Lebanon for the time being.
“Either [Hezbollah] allows the rebuilding to happen in a way that is state-led and has sufficient legitimacy from [Arab] Gulf donors who are willing to put their money in, or it’s not going to happen,” Nadim Houry, executive director of the Arab Reform Initiative, said.
And there are indications that, despite the rhetoric from some, Hezbollah may be open to a more conciliatory path, at least in the short term.
“The important thing is to rebuild state institutions, achieve political, financial and economic reform, implement the ceasefire agreement and follow up on the implementation of the Taif Agreement,” Qassem Kassir, a political analyst close to Hezbollah, told Al Jazeera, referring to the 1989 pact designed to end the 15-year Lebanese Civil War. “The issue of confronting the Israeli enemy is one of the priorities. ”
New hope in Salam
The partnership of Aoun and Salam signals a shift away from the traditional blocs of political power in Lebanon as well as the billionaire prime minister profile of some of Salam’s predecessors, including Saad Hariri and current caretaker Premier Mikati.
Many Lebanese said Salam’s designation as prime minister in particular is a boon for the country and its hopes at reforms.
“I am very hopeful,” said Dalal Mawad, a Lebanese journalist and author who counts Salam as a mentor. “He embodies the justice and accountability and the rule of law that we want to see in Lebanon. ”
“What we can say is that Nawaf Salam’s nomination definitely augurs well for the future of Lebanon,” Bitar said. “Most Lebanese are optimistic for the first time in a couple of decades or at least for the first time since 2019. ”
Salam’s name first began to be circulated for the premiership shortly after the mass protests that broke out on October 17, 2019. He is widely seen as someone who, despite being from a prominent political family – his relatives include former Prime Ministers Saeb Salam and Tammam Salam – is outside the traditional political oligarchy.
In his first speech as prime minister-designate, Salam spoke about building “a modern, civil and just state”.
He also spoke about achieving “justice, security, progress and opportunities”.
He spoke specifically of justice for the victims of the August 4, 2020, Beirut port blast and the 2019 bank crisis when depositors were suddenly stripped of access to their money and no officials or banks were held accountable.
Lebanese media reported on Tuesday that the investigation into the blast, which had been derailed by Lebanese political groups including Hezbollah, would resume shortly.
Struggles ahead
Despite the focus of many on Hezbollah, all of Lebanon’s most powerful parties have taken advantage of the system to avoid accountability or block political agendas they oppose.
The next challenge for Aoun and Salam will be to deliver on their statements as they confront a political system built on sectarianism.
Lebanon’s sectarian system “necessitates new approaches”, Majed said, adding that Lebanon was in need of a monopoly on violence by state institutions and weapons and “a strategy to defend Lebanon from real Israeli hostilities”.
Under the current sectarian system, Lebanon is managed by a handful of political parties and leaders with deeply rooted support and control over the state’s institutions. These leaders, who span Lebanon’s religious sects, are accused of using these resources and their political power to build their patronage networks, holding people accountable to them rather than the state.
These powers have become entrenched in their positions and resistant to change.
“We need to make fundamental, structural reforms in Lebanon to the political system, and I do not know if that is doable,” Hilal Khashan, a political scientist at the American University of Beirut and former colleague of Salam’s, told Al Jazeera.
Appointing strong or new leaders in positions of power is not all that is needed to root out the deeply entrenched corruption and clientelism. Salam, for example, is not the first technocrat to take a prominent role in Lebanon.
“The difference is that, in the past, technocrats came to power when the political class wanted to procrastinate,” Houry said. “They were never brought in with any legitimacy, which depended on the political class, so they didn’t have the capacity or support to put in place most of their reforms. ”
But today, the myriad crises in Lebanon mean the political class understands it has to let some reforms happen – even if it will likely continue to oppose systemic changes.
Salam and Aoun will have to tackle questions of economic stability, security and national dialogue without isolating any community and while managing foreign relations, including Israeli aggression. The series of issues to address is long and arduous.
Analysts, however, said Salam and Aoun have a unique opportunity. The collapse of the al-Assad regime, a constant meddler in Lebanese affairs, the weakening of Iran and the willingness of the international community to provide foreign aid and backing to Lebanon’s new leaders mean there is support for a reform agenda that wasn’t previously there.
Even with positive conditions, confronting the deeply entrenched and resilient Lebanese political class will still be a back-breaking endeavour. Many analysts said that despite their positivity over Salam’s appointment, they held doubts about whether anyone could uproot the Lebanese political system.
