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United States President Donald Trump said on Tuesday he was considering imposing a 10 percent tariff on imports from China, which could come into force as soon as February 1.

It was Trump’s latest trade threat against China, the world’s second-largest economy after the US, and Washington’s biggest geopolitical rival. During the campaign that ultimately led to his re-election, Trump threatened to impose up to 60 percent tariffs on Chinese goods, intensifying an ongoing trade war.

Yet, if the intent of the proposed tariffs was to hurt Chinese exports, in a bid to push for US interests in their trade relationship, Trump’s threats — so far at least — appear to have had the opposite effect.

China’s overall exports, including to the US, have grown in recent months.

So why is Trump threatening China with tariffs, how are Chinese exports still increasing, and what is next in their trade tussle?

Why is Trump threatening China with increased tariffs?

On Tuesday, Trump argued that China was behind the supply of fentanyl to US neighbours, which he said was in turn responsible for a deadly addiction crisis in the country.

A day earlier, he said he was considering imposing 25 percent tariffs on Mexico and Canada, alleging the countries were allowing “vast numbers of people” and fentanyl into the US. He also announced the creation of an “external revenue service” that would “collect our tariffs, duties, and all revenue that come from foreign sources”.

As 2024 came to a close, Chinese exports to US companies rose, growing by 4 percent between November 2023 and November 2024.

But more broadly, Trump has also accused China of unfair trade practices. China, the world’s largest exporter, has a massive balance of trade advantage with the US. In the first 11 months of 2024, Chinese exports to the US totalled about $401bn, while China imported approximately $131bn in goods from the US.

Have Trump’s tariff threats made a difference?

It appears so — just not the way the US might have wanted. As Trump’s inauguration approached, and the threat of tariffs on Chinese imports grew, US companies ramped up their purchase of Chinese goods to stock up before the import costs shot up.

In November 2024, Chinese exports to the US stood at $47. 3bn, up from $43. 8bn in November 2023, according to the Observatory of Economic Complexity (OEC). That is an 8 percent increase.

Meanwhile, Chinese imports from the US dropped by 11. 2 percent from $14bn to $12. 4bn in November 2024 compared with November 2023. Simply put, amid Trump’s threats, the US trade deficit with China widened.

While US government data differs somewhat from OEC data, it points to the same trend. Between July and November 2024, US imports from China reached about $203bn, up 6. 8 percent from $190bn over the same five months in 2023.

China’s overall exports have boomed too. Last month, Chinese total exports hit record highs, up 10. 7 percent in December compared with a year earlier, beating analyst estimates. Total exports for 2024 reached $3. 58 trillion, a 5. 9 percent increase from 2023.

China’s trade surplus soared to a record-breaking $992bn in 2024, representing a 21 percent increase from the previous year, as reported by the customs on Monday.

And there could be more bad news for the US.

“While this influx temporarily fuelled China’s trade surplus, the broader trade relationship has been undermined by US policies,” Carlos Lopes, a Chatham House associate fellow for the Africa Programme, told Al Jazeera.

“Escalation of tariffs and a continuation of unilateral measures could deepen the erosion of trust in the global trade system, further pushing China to diversify its partners and reduce reliance on the US market,” Lopes, whose areas of expertise include international trade and China, said.

“The current surge may offer short-term gains for both economies, but it highlights the fragility of a system increasingly dominated by trade wars and unpredictability. ”

What is Trump’s tariff war?

Trump has announced plans for tariffs on China, Canada and Mexico since taking office, but many other countries worldwide are also bracing for similar measures.

He had initially launched a tariff war on China during his first term and by 2018, the US and China were imposing tariffs on one another.

While a truce to the tariff war between the US and China  was announced in January 2020, Joe Biden eventually continued with Trump’s policies after he won the presidential election in 2020 — despite criticising them during his electoral campaign.

In May 2024, the Biden administration reviewed Section 301 of the Trade Act and imposed higher tariff rates of 25 to 100 percent on some Chinese imports. Electric vehicles and solar cells were among the affected products.

“The Biden administration levy has tabled restrictions on trade and tech with China, which will be difficult for Trump to walk back on,” Manoj Kewalramani, chairperson of the Indo-Pacific Research Programme and a China studies fellow at Indian public policy centre Takshashila Institution, told Al Jazeera.

China lost its position as the top trade partner of the US to Mexico in 2019, three years after Trump was voted in as president in 2016. As of November 2024, the top trading partners of the US were Mexico, with $69. 1bn worth of total trade that month; Canada, with $61. 8bn worth of total trade; and China, with $50. 5bn worth of total trade.

“Trump sees tariffs as important, not just from an economic point of view, but also from a negotiating point of view,” Kewalramani said, adding, there might be tariff negotiations akin to those around January 2020. But they may not take place immediately, he said.

“The timing of tariffs is often subject to political manoeuvres and administrative processes, and the lack of transparency in these decisions undermines the predictability of the trade system,” said Lopes.

“Unilateral US actions, without consultation with trading partners or adherence to multilateral norms, create uncertainty for businesses and investors. This unpredictability not only disrupts supply chains but also weakens confidence in the rules-based global trading order, which is already under strain. ”

The tariffs aim to help the US climb out of its $1. 9 trillion deficit. However, Lopes said, “Climbing out of the deficit requires more than tariffs or protectionist measures; it demands strategic investments in technology, infrastructure, and workforce development. ”

What will US-China relations look like during Trump 2. 0?

The US and China are the largest economies in the world. The US gross domestic product (GDP) as of 2023 was $27. 36 trillion, according to World Bank data, against China’s $17. 79 trillion.

What will happen in terms of tariffs during Trump 2. 0 is unpredictable. “We’ll have to wait and see whether anything close to the 60 percent number is reached,” Kewalramani said.

Out of the 26 executive orders Trump signed on his inauguration day, one delays the enforcement of a ban on the popular short-video app TikTok, which is owned by Chinese company ByteDance, by 75 days. However, he has threatened to impose tariffs on China if it does not approve a potential US deal with TikTok, according to the Reuters news agency.

Trump invited Chinese President Xi Jinping to his inauguration, which was attended by his deputy, Han Zheng. Kewalramani postulated that Trump and Xi will continue to engage, much like Biden and Xi, despite there being restrictions across the board on China from the Biden administration.

“China has already demonstrated resilience by diversifying trade partnerships and doubling down on domestic innovation. It will likely expand its Belt and Road Initiative [BRI] and invest heavily in advanced sectors like green energy and technology to sustain its export competitiveness,” Lopes said.

The BRI is a network of highways, ports and railroads that China is constructing. This global infrastructure is set to connect Asia better to Africa, Europe and Latin America.

“Importantly, China will benefit from the US’s unilateral approach, as it positions itself as a defender of multilateralism, creating new opportunities to fill the vacuum left by the US in global trade leadership. Instead of isolating China, US actions risk driving its further integration into alternative economic networks, weakening the very leverage the US seeks to maintain. ”

How will consumers be affected?

“I do anticipate an increase in tariffs, but maybe not as big as 60 percent,” Kewalramani said, adding that high tariffs would amount to a “significant cost explosion for American consumers”.

According to the Congressional Budget Office (CBO), a nonpartisan federal agency, Trump’s tariff policy would boost inflation and shrink the economy, but there are caveats.

Several people have been killed as the Israeli military raided  the Jenin refugee camp in the occupied West Bank.

Palestinian health services said at least 10 Palestinians were killed and 35 wounded in the raid, which was launched in the early hours of Tuesday, continued well into the night and is expected to last for days.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said that the operation, dubbed “Iron Wall,” was intended to “eradicate terrorism” in the area.

The Palestinian Red Crescent said its first responders treated seven people injured by live ammunition, adding that Israeli forces were hindering access to the area.

United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres called for “maximum restraint” from security forces and said that he “remains deeply concerned”.

Israeli NGO B’Tselem accused the Israeli government of using the Gaza ceasefire as “an excuse and opportunity to ratchet up the oppression of West Bank Palestinians”.

“This is not what a ceasefire looks like,” it said.

Jenin governor Kamal Abu al-Rub told AFP the operation was “an invasion of the (refugee) camp”.

“It came quickly, Apache helicopters in the sky and Israeli military vehicles everywhere,” he added.

A spokesman for the Palestinian security forces said in a statement that Israeli forces had “opened fire on civilians and security forces, resulting in injuries to several civilians and a number of security personnel, one of whom is in critical condition”.

Al Jazeera’s senior political analyst Marwan Bishara said that attacking Palestinians in the West Bank was always likely after hostilities in Gaza halted.

The raid also served to deflect public attention after the resignations of Israeli military commanders for their admitted failure to protect Israel from the Hamas attack in October 2023, he suggested.

“I think the Netanyahu government is deflecting. Where does it deflect? In the West Bank. In Jenin. By various closures and by a huge attack on Jenin that probably will go on for days, weeks – perhaps more. ”

Washington, DC –  After Elon Musk made an apparent Nazi salute at an inauguration rally for United States President Donald Trump, the Anti-Defamation League (ADL) rushed to defend the SpaceX founder.

The self-described anti-Semitism watchdog and “leading anti-hate organization in the world” dismissed Musk’s raised arm as “an awkward gesture in a moment of enthusiasm” in a social media post on Monday.

Months earlier, however, Jonathan Greenblatt, the head of the staunchly pro-Israel ADL, compared the Palestinian keffiyeh to the Nazi swastika.

Activists say the contrast between the ADL’s hurried defence of Musk and its efforts to demonise Palestinians and their supporters shows that the group is more focused on silencing voices critical of Israel than it is on fighting anti-Semitism.

“The ADL is being crystal clear about where it stands,” said Beth Miller, political director at Jewish Voice for Peace (JVP).

“They have made it as clear as possible that they are not a reputable source of information when it comes to anti-Semitism. They are not actually prioritising the protection of Jewish communities at all. ”

Miller called the ADL a “hateful group” dedicated to smearing Palestinian rights advocates.

For years, the ADL has been a go-to NGO for government agencies and the corporate world when it comes to anti-Semitism, hate crimes and broader civil rights issues.

The group has hosted top Israeli and US politicians, FBI directors, celebrities and businesspeople.

The group’s annual “audit” of anti-Semitic incidents in the US — which last year included “certain expressions of opposition to Zionism, as well as support for resistance against Israel” — often gets cited by government agencies and legislation.

Still, Palestinian rights supporters and US-based Muslim groups have long sounded the alarm about the ADL and its stalwart support for Israel.

In recent years, the group has come under increased criticism for the perception that it has gone soft on right-wing figures accused of bigotry, as long as they support Israel.

Those accusations escalated after Musk’s gesture on Monday.

“Just to be clear, you are defending a Heil Hitler salute that was performed and repeated for emphasis and clarity,” progressive Congresswoman Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez wrote on social media in response to the ADL’s defence of Musk.

“People can officially stop listening to you as any sort of reputable source of information now. ”

Just to be clear, you are defending a Heil Hitler salute that was performed and repeated for emphasis and clarity.

People can officially stop listening to you as any sort of reputable source of information now. You work for them. Thank you for making that crystal clear to all. https://t. co/0gLdMCU3UV

Musk’s gesture

While speaking at the Capital One Arena following Trump’s inauguration, Musk put his hand to his chest, then swiftly raised his arm as he thanked the crowd for electing the Republican president.

The 53-year-old billionaire then turned around and did it again.

His motion resembled the Nazi gesture — known as the “Sieg Heil”, German for “hail victory” — which has roots in an ancient Roman salute.

“My heart goes out to you. It is thanks to you that the future of civilisation is assured,” Musk said.

While it is not uncommon for politicians to extend their arms to greet an audience, the combination of Musk’s rhetoric about “civilisation” and the repeated gesture raised many eyebrows.

Ruth Ben-Ghiat, a history professor at New York University who writes about fascism and authoritarianism, said in a social media post that Musk’s gesture was “a Nazi salute — and a very belligerent one too”.

Musk has not provided a detailed explanation of what happened, but he did brush off the accusations, saying that his critics “need better dirty tricks”.

“The ‘everyone is Hitler’ attack is sooo tired,” Musk wrote on X. He later shared a post showing Democratic politicians with their arms raised and dismissed legacy media as “pure propaganda”.

But Matan Arad-Neeman, a spokesperson for IfNotNow, a Jewish progressive group, rejected Musk’s apparent denial.

“I’m descended from Holocaust survivors, and I know a Nazi salute when I see one, and that was absolutely what Elon Musk was doing,” Arad-Neeman told Al Jazeera.

He added that the ADL’s defence of Musk was “obscene”. He juxtaposed the group’s response with its reaction to antiwar protesters pushing for a ceasefire in Gaza, where Israel has pursued a devastating military campaign since 2023.

“It’s not surprising — although it is shameful — that the ADL has spent recent years focusing their attention on egging on a crackdown on protesters for Palestinian human rights and antiwar protesters,” Arad-Neeman said.

ADL-Musk feud

The ADL’s backing of Musk would have been unthinkable less than a year and a half ago, when the billionaire entrepreneur threatened to sue the pro-Israel group over allegations that it was preventing companies from advertising on X after he acquired the platform.

Musk’s attacks, which the ADL described as “dangerous and deeply irresponsible”, were also perceived by critics as anti-Semitic. Some criticised Musk for blaming a Jewish group for his new company’s shortcomings.

But weeks after accusing X of “elevating” anti-Semites, the ADL welcomed what it called the platform’s “intent” to address anti-Semitism.

In October 2023, Greenblatt described Musk as an “amazing entrepreneur and extraordinary innovator”, positively comparing him with the pioneering industrialist Henry Ford, who is widely believed to have espoused anti-Semitic views.

Even after Musk and the ADL appeared to bury the hatchet, the X owner responded to a post accusing Jewish communities of promoting “dialectical hatred” against white people by writing: “You have said the actual truth”.

Musk visited Israel in November of that year, weeks into its war on Gaza, and met with the country’s leaders.

Arad-Neeman said bigots should not be able to “wave away their anti-Semitism” by saying that they support Israel.

“It’s unacceptable,” he told Al Jazeera. “It is offensive to the vast majority of American Jews who are terrified by people like the Proud Boys, by people like Elon Musk, by people like Donald Trump who cosy up to white supremacists and fascists. ”

Besides his comments on the Jewish people, Musk has voiced support for far-right groups across the world.

Last month, he sparked outrage when he said only Germany’s far-right party, the AfD, could save the country.

Musk has also taken up the cause of the British anti-Muslim campaigner Tommy Robinson, who is in jail for contempt of court as part of a libel case. A court found that Robinson had falsely accused a Syrian refugee schoolboy of attacking “young English girls”.

The ADL recently denounced Robinson, whose legal name is Stephen Yaxley-Lennon, as an “anti-Muslim bigot”.

‘Censoring our speech’

Abed Ayoub, the executive director at the American-Arab Anti-Discrimination Committee (ADC), said he wished the ADL would extend the same careful approach and benefit of the doubt it offered Musk to members of Arab and Muslim communities.

“This organisation has a history of censoring our speech and going after our speech and our freedom of expression, and it has made life difficult for many Arabs, Palestinians, Muslims and our supporters in this country,” Ayoub told Al Jazeera.

The ADL opposed a proposed mosque in New York in 2010 because it was close to the site of the 9/11 attacks at the World Trade Center, siding with far-right and Islamophobic groups.

The group has admitted more than a decade later that its position on the mosque was “wrong”.

More recently, the ADL has accused protesters supporting Palestinian rights — including left-wing Jewish groups — of promoting anti-Semitism.

Earlier this month, the ADL featured on its website a Jewish insider story slamming CBS News for interviewing Josh Paul and Hala Rharrit, two former US officials who quit their government jobs as a protest against Washington’s support for Israel’s war on Gaza.

The article emphasised a vague connection that Paul and Rharrit have with the Council on American-Islamic Relations (CAIR), a civil rights group.

Last year, Greenblatt slammed members of then-President Joe Biden’s administration for meeting with Osama Siblani, the publisher of the Michigan-based Arab American News, over what he called “sympathy” for Hezbollah and Hamas.

The ADL has also been an uncompromising supporter of Israel’s war on Gaza, which rights groups and United Nations advocates have described as a genocide.

Ayoub said it is easy to get behind the ADL’s “mission on paper”: to fight hatred and bigotry. But more people are becoming aware of the group’s actual positions, he added.

“We’re starting to see a crack in their support, and we’re starting to see people call them out, especially on things like defending Elon Musk at the speed at which they did,” Ayoub told Al Jazeera.

The ADL did not respond to Al Jazeera’s request for comment by the time of publication.

On Tuesday, Bend the Arc, a progressive Jewish group, started circulating a petition calling for the ADL to retract its defence of Musk.

“The ADL claims to be an expert on antisemitism,” the petition reads.