Category World News

Politicians and military personnel sat down in a well-known event space in Nairobi’s central business district on a weekday to discuss forming a new government.

But instead of the red and black Kenyan flag, a Sudanese one adorned the hall. Everyone in the room was seated in opposition to Kenyan politicians and was associated with Sudan’s Rapid Support Forces (RSF), a paramilitary organization whose ongoing conflict with Sudan’s Armed Forces (SAF) has shattered that nation.

A massive outcry – from the Sudanese government and people as well as several foreign governments, including Turkiye and Saudi Arabia – has followed the RSF’s moves. The Kenyan government has also been criticized for its apparent support of the paramilitary, though outrage has also been expressed. The SAF-led government, currently based in Port Sudan, recalled its ambassador to Kenya in February. The SAF delivered no mince words when the RSF convened once more in Nairobi last week to sign a “transitional constitution.”

“These clear positions affirm the Kenyan Presidency’s irresponsible stance in embracing the genocidal RSF militia”, the SAF-led government said in a statement on Sunday, adding that Kenya was a “rogue state”.

The “Sudan Founding Charter,” which was signed by the RSF last month, effectively evoking a parallel government in RSF-held areas, including Khartoum and the western region of Darfur.

For analysts, the fact that such a divisive move was allowed in Nairobi means Kenya is not neutral.

This is a diplomatic own goal, according to Abdullahi Boru Halakhe, a policy expert from Kenya who also works for Refugees International, in football terms. The consequences of such a move on Kenya’s reputation are costly and the damage “will take a while to fix”, he added.

The President of the United States has only recently experienced the most recent diplomatic blight. Clashes with the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) over the hosting of rebel groups in Nairobi in late 2023 are still simmering. According to analysts, Ruto’s position in the two events represents a significant policy change for a nation that was once seen as a neutral regional leader during peace negotiations between conflicting Somalia and Sudan.

Sudan: A dividing line?

Fighting in Sudan first broke out in April 2023 after Mohamed Hamdan “Hemedti” Dagalo, the leader of the RSF, and General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, the SAF chief, fell out. Prior to the coup that put an inclusive transitional government to an end, the two leaders had engaged in a power struggle that ended their alliance.

More than 60, 000 people have been killed in the war, and 11 million have been displaced. The UN accuses both sides of engaging in war crimes during the conflict. However, there are more grievous allegations against the RSF, whose fighters are mainly from Darfur’s nomadic “Arab” tribes. The RSF’s “horrific” campaign against the sedentary “non-Arab” Masalit people in West Darfur, according to the UN, could lead to “genocide” and “horrific” attacks. In January, the United States declared the RSF was committing a “genocide” and it was targeting people “on an ethnic basis”.

Egypt and the coalition of northeast African states that includes Kenya and Sudan have attempted to reach agreement on peace talks, but they have largely failed.

After the first RSF meeting in Nairobi in February, Kenya’s government defended itself against the backlash from Sudan and opposition politicians at home. Nairobi was actually playing a peacemaking role, according to Foreign Secretary Musalia Mudavadi in a statement.

“The tabling of a roadmap and proposed leadership by the RSF and Sudanese civilian groups in Nairobi is consistent with Kenya’s role in peace negotiations, which requires it to provide non-partisan platforms for conflict parties to seek resolutions”, Mudavadi said.

Some Sudanese were against, though. Although there were civilian groups at the RSF meetings, including some from Darfur, Sudanese political analyst Shaza El Mahdi said that because the SAF was not present, any peace negotiations would be null.

El Mahdi, who was contacted about Mudavadi’s statement, told Al Jazeera, “I don’t buy it at all.” “For the RSF, this meeting with civilians is more of a branding thing to wash their image. Because the RSF is laying the first stone in a line that will divide Darfur from the rest of the nation, it raises serious concerns for Sudanese people. It’s a divisive move”.

Additionally, according to the analyst who works for the Center for International Private Enterprise, the RSF likely only used Nairobi as a launchpad to establish some legitimacy. That move, though, has affected how Sudanese perceive the Kenyan government, she said.

I personally oppose the RSF and the SAF because both sides should be held accountable, according to El Mahdi. “But then many Sudanese people do prefer the SAF and see it as the better alternative, and now people believe that Kenya is supporting the RSF against Sudan”.

Some observers speculated that Nairobi’s apparent camaraderie with the RSF might be due to a “friendship” between Ruto and Hemedti.

In January 2024, Ruto hosted Hemedti, who was on a regional tour and had been welcomed also in Uganda and Ethiopia to the ire of the SAF government. After Ruto and Hemedti traveled to Juba, South Sudan, for a state visit in November, the conversation grew about a “bromance” between the two. On the presidential jet with Ruto was Hemedti’s brother and RSF Deputy Commander Abdulrahim Dagalo, who has been sanctioned by the US for his role in the war.

Others, however, pointed to a recent economic agreement between Kenya and the United Arab Emirates, whose government is said to support the RSF despite its denials. The deal, signed in January, will see the UAE double investments in Kenya. Nairobi is currently awaiting a $ 1.5 billion loan from the UAE to cover budget deficits brought on by borrowing during the previous administration.

“high-waist pants” for peacekeeping personnel

In December 2023 in a similar fashion to the Sudan debacle, Nairobi played host to rebel leaders from the DRC, causing a deep row between the two countries, even as the Kenyan government insisted it was trying to make peace.

Bertrand Bisimwa, the DRC’s former elections commission chief-turned-rebel, and Corneille Nangaa, the group’s leader, met with the UN’s alleged support for the M23, which the UN claimed is backed by Rwanda and has recently seized key eastern DRC cities. Their news came from the lobby of a Nairobi hotel.

That bothered political observers because of Bisimwa and because Kenyan soldiers led East African Community (EAC) peacekeeping forces at the time to impose a fragile ceasefire between the DRC army and a number of armed groups, including the M23.

Several problems had already arisen between Nairobi and Kinshasa over the M23. The Kenyan-led peacekeepers, who were first deployed in November 2022, were accused of “cohabiting” with the rebels for months by the DRC.

That’s because Kinshasa wanted EAC troops to face and stop the M23 – its biggest headache. The Kenya-led force, however, argued that it was only authorized to impose ceasefires and control the withdrawal of armed groups. Tensions grew. Protests and riots broke out in some parts of the DRC as enraged Congolese attacked UN and EAC peacekeepers for failing to put an end to the M23 violence. In December 2023, Congolese President Felix Tshisekedi sent the EAC forces packing.

The M23 head arrived in Nairobi in response to that circumstance. In angry statements after the meeting, Kinshasa ordered Ruto to arrest the two rebel leaders, but that request was bluntly refused.

In a release, Ruto said, “Kenya is a democracy.” “We cannot arrest anybody who has issued a statement. We arrest criminals, not people for making statements.

Now barely a year later, the M23 has gone on to seize the major eastern towns of Goma and Bukavu. According to the DRC government, at least 7, 000 people have died as a result of the conflict, which has caused hundreds of thousands of Congolese to flee.

“How can someone who is attempting to mediate peace also be accommodating people who have taken arms against the Congolese people”? According to Al Jazeera, Kabambale Musavuli, a US-based Center for Research on Congo-Kinshasa, an analyst and advocate for Congolese human rights.

“Regardless of what explanation Ruto may have given, I think he tried to enter the issues of the Congo. Would Kenya have responded the same way [that Ruto did] if a belligerent Kenyan citizen who has picked up guns had been permitted to hold a press conference there?”

Many Congolese, Musavuli continued, were already not fond of Ruto because of a “close friendship” with Rwandan President Paul Kagame and due to a perceived “condescending” attitude towards the country.

Ruto’s gaffe, which he made while campaigning in 2022, angered DRC diplomats and caused many Congolese to suffer. Speaking to a crowd of small-business owners, Ruto had promised more agricultural revenue because he planned to open avenues to sell livestock to the DRC, saying they “have a population of 90 million but don’t own any cows”. Ruto also referred to the Congolese as “wearing high-waist trousers,” a term used in music videos. He later apologised for the gaffe after Congolese politicians expressed anger.

We in the DRC were not supporting Ruto when the elections were taking place. We wanted an alternative because we already knew his attitude towards us”, Musavuli added.

From the guard to the side-taker?

Long before its present rifts with its neighbours, Kenya was once seen as a broker of peace in East Africa.

Conflicting factions in Somalia gathered in Nairobi in 2004 to reach a resolution that would create a federal parliament and end the bloody civil war that had been raging since the dictatorship’s overthrow in 1991, under the leadership of President Mwai Kibaki.

Just a year later, Kenya again led and played host to the Sudanese Comprehensive Peace Agreement, a peace framework that helped end the Sudanese civil conflict and eventually paved the way for the founding of the nation of South Sudan in 2011.

According to analysts, Kenya appears to be actively causing trouble while still under Ruto’s control as well as struggling to maintain that reputation. The seeming alliances with not one but two foreign armed factions since Ruto took office in 2022 have harmed Kenya’s former regional standing as a country with diplomatic might and weakened its reputation as an honest interlocutor, according to experts.

Kenya has experienced unprecedented tensions internally since its post-election crisis in 2007. Youth-led protests racked the country in June and July last year as thousands marched against Ruto’s plans for higher taxes. The Kenyan police shot at protesters as they marched in. At least 50 people were killed, hundreds injured and many others remain missing, according to the Kenya National Commission on Human Rights. Kenyans are still using the hashtag #RutoMustGo to urge Ruto to step down on social media.

“Sudan and the DRC both have exposed Kenya’s diplomatic Achilles heels”, Halakhe said. Kenya’s foreign policy, despite its internally conflicting politics, was not self-harming.

All that has changed, he added.

Multilateralism will have a significant impact in 2025. Rising inequality, climate change, and the funding gap for sustainable development are all urgent and interconnected issues that need to be resolved. They must be addressed boldly and effectively, not by retreating into isolation, taking unilateral actions, or disrupting them.

The 30th Conference of the Parties (COP30) to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) in Belém (Brazil), as well as the G20 Summit in Johannesburg (South Africa), are three significant international gatherings that provide a unique opportunity to chart a path towards a more just, inclusive, and sustainable world. These meetings must produce real progress rather than just business as usual.

We must not waste a multilateral opportunity.

The need for dialogue and global cooperation has never been greater, despite the low trust in multilateral institutions. We must reaffirm that multilateralism remains the most effective tool for addressing shared problems and advancing common interests when it is ambitious and action-oriented.

Building on multilateralism’s successes, particularly the Paris Agreement and the 2030 Agenda, is necessary. A renewed commitment to inclusiveness, sustainable development, and shared prosperity must be demonstrated by the FfD4, COP30, and G20. Strong political will, the full support of all relevant stakeholders, a creative mindset, and the ability to comprehend the constraints and priorities of all economies will be necessary for this.

addressing inequality through a fresh financial system

Income inequality is growing, both globally and globally. Many developing nations struggle due to barriers to fair access to capital, limited fiscal resources, and unsustainable debt burdens. With rising interest rates, basic services like healthcare and education must compete.

This is a cost-benefit for everyone, not just a moral flaw. To give countries in the Global South more voice and representation, and to make access to resources fairer and more predictable, the global financial architecture needs to be changed.

We must work on identifying and addressing the causes of the high capital costs that most developing nations experience, as well as encourage innovative financing mechanisms. These three areas are the G20’s top priorities, according to the South African presidency.

Seville’s FfD4 will mark a pivotal moment in the development of stronger international financial cooperation, including through improved domestic resource mobilization, improved global wealth taxation, and more effective and impactful rechanneling of Special Drawing Rights.

just transitions to development that is climate-resilient

Due to a lack of resources and development constraints, climate transitions are still out of reach for many developing nations. This needs to alter. We must make sure that our climate finance commitments are translated into concrete action at the COP30 summit in Belém, which is held in the heart of the Amazon.

Whether we can bridge the gap between promises and actuality will determine COP30’s success. The Baku to Belém Roadmap and the new and ambitious Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) submitted by all parties in accordance with the UNFCCC will serve as important foundations for COP30, raising funding for climate action from all public and private sources to at least $1.3 trillion by 2025.

We need to leverage private sector investment to increase climate adaptation financing, and make sure multilateral development banks are more active in the process. In addition to these efforts, the FfD4 in Seville will make sure that development is not compromised by climate financing.

An all-inclusive strategy for addressing global threats

We must redouble our efforts to find common ground because the world is becoming more and more fragmented. Johannesburg, Belém, and Seville must be exemplars of multilateral cooperation, demonstrating how diverse nations can coexist and share goals.

We will work in Seville to mobilize both public and private funds for sustainable development, acknowledging the interdependence of climate change and financial stability. We will unite in Belem to defend the planet. The G20 will also reiterate the importance of inclusive economic growth in Johannesburg.

We urge everyone to rise up in the face of the unknown as we prepare for 2025. Because the stakes are too high for failure, multilateralism can and must deliver.

Six days prior to Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, former United States President Joe Biden declared he was “convinced” that Moscow had made the decision to invade Ukraine on February 18, 2022. Biden responded, “We have a significant intelligence capability,” when asked how he knew this.

Volodymyr Zelenskyy, the country’s government at the time, was unsure of Biden’s future plans and argued that a full-scale invasion was unlikely.

Ukraine was wrong, Biden was right.

The US has collaborated with Ukraine since the war started by using its extensive spying capabilities, helping Kyiv both preventively and strategically by plotting attacks against Russian forces, in addition to billions of dollars in sophisticated weaponry.

When US officials confirmed on Wednesday that President Donald Trump had mandated the suspension of intelligence sharing with Kyiv, that came to an end. Two days after the US stopped providing military aid to Ukraine, Trump and Zelenskyy’s relations deteriorated.

How much has the US provided intelligence to Ukraine during the conflict? How much will Ukraine suffer if there isn’t enough US intelligence? And will Europe intervene to support Ukraine?

What we currently know is as follows.

What transpired?

Washington has halted sharing intelligence with Ukraine, according to US officials. Unnamed US officials were quoted by multiple US media outlets who claimed Trump had stopped military aid to Kyiv.

In an interview with Fox Business on Wednesday, John Ratcliffe, the CIA director, confirmed the intelligence pause.

On Wednesday, the same day, US National Security Advisor Mike Waltz confirmed the pause to reporters. Waltz remarked, “We have taken a step back and are paused and reviewing every aspect of this relationship.” He continued, “good talks” have been having with Ukraine regarding the negotiations.

If Trump and Zelenskyy reach a compromise, according to US officials, the pause on sharing intelligence and military aid may be lifted.

Waltz predicted that the movement would start very soon.

Why did the US cut back on its ties to Ukraine?

Alan Fisher, a reporter from the White House, reported on Al Jazeera that the slashing of intelligence sharing was “just a tool to try to get Ukraine back on the table.”

Fisher explained that the US and the US discussed stopping military aid to Ukraine, which the Ukrainians contend would hurt their war efforts.

“It is obvious that the threat of those things has already worked. Therefore, it seems that any impact on Ukraine would be limiting in the least when the national security adviser says that peace talks may start soon.

What brought us here?

Following rising tensions between Trump and Zelenskyy over the past few weeks, Trump’s military pause and most recently the halt in intelligence sharing.

Trump’s change in US policy toward Ukraine has sparked direct discussions with Moscow regarding a solution. Ukraine and its allies in Europe were left out of the conversation after American and Russian officials met for talks hosted by Saudi Arabia in February.

In the days that followed, Zelenskyy and Trump engaged in verbal altercation, which cast doubt on his approval ratings. Trump responded by claiming that he was residing in a “disinformation space.”

At the White House’s Oval Office on February 28, Zelenskyy met Trump, US Vice President JD Vance, and Marco Rubio, US Secretary of State. Zelenskyy was accused by Trump and Vance of not being appreciative enough of the military support that Washington offers Kyiv. Trump had ended military assistance a day later, on Monday.

Zelenskyy said Ukraine was prepared to return to the table of negotiations on Tuesday, but his tone changed. In his X-post, he wrote, “We really value how much America has helped Ukraine maintain its sovereignty and independence.”

How far has the US provided intelligence to Ukraine?

The US provided significant intelligence to Ukraine even before the Russia-Ukraine conflict started in February 2022.

Although no specific details or precise information about how significant US intelligence sharing has been to Ukraine have been publicly disclosed, numerous reports, officials, and leaks highlight two crucial areas.

Ukrainian forces are able to prepare for incoming Russian strikes thanks to the intelligence, which is primarily a combination of satellite imagery and signals. It also aids in tracing Russian troop movements and bases’ positions, allowing Ukrainian forces to fire missiles, including long-range projectiles, at them. This includes conducting long-range strikes on Russian soil using Ukrainian allies’ HIMARS and ATACMS.

According to Marina Miron, a postdoctoral researcher at King’s College London’s defense studies department, “The United States can provide Ukraine with the coordinates or satellite imagery of where the Russian logistical centers are located,” the United States can use that information to destroy them.

To target hostile objectives like ammunition depots and logistical hubs, you need that information from the Ukrainian perspective.

There is more, though.

An underground bunker was constructed in its place in February 2024 following a New York Times investigation that revealed that a command center for the Ukrainian military had been destroyed following Russia’s full-scale invasion. Ukrainian soldiers monitor conversations between Russian forces and monitor Russian spy satellites in this bunker. According to the Times, the CIA provides some equipment and almost entirely funding for the base.

Additionally, the report noted that Ukraine has a number of CIA-supported spy bases, including 12 hideouts along the Russian border.

Further investigation revealed that the elite Ukrainian commando force, known as Unit 2245, was being trained by the CIA in 2016 and seized Russian drones and communications equipment. The CIA would then reverse-engineer these devices in order to decode Moscow’s encryption. Kyrylo Budanov, the country’s current head of military intelligence, was one of the 2245-trained officers.

Will Ukraine’s combative abilities be impacted by the intelligence pause?

It already has.

Charles Stratford, a reporter for Al Jazeera, claimed to have spoken with a Ukrainian commander who was stationed close to the front line while reporting from Ukraine.

According to Stratford, “he claimed that about 90% of the intelligence work that is done on that 1, 300km [808 miles] front line in the east and south of Ukraine was done by his unit and many others right the way along that 1, 300km]808 miles] front line,” He claimed that they had no assistance today and that the American system had indeed been disabled.

According to Stratford, Ukraine uses US intelligence for a variety of purposes, including its Patriot missile system, which is crucial to Kyiv’s ability to deflect incoming Russian ballistic missiles.

Can Europe assist in bridging Ukraine’s intelligence gimmick?

Partly.

Even though spy satellites from other European countries can provide some imagery, it’s unclear whether they are capable of providing the intelligence Ukraine needs.

Additionally, Finnish company ICEYE has two commercially successful spy satellites. The government of Germany and German weapons manufacturer Rheinmetall purchased one, while the other was provided by a nonprofit.

According to experts, it is unlikely that Ukraine or Europe will be able to bridge the gulf created by the US intelligence sharing pause despite these.

According to Miron, “Europe does not possess the intelligence that the US provides to Ukraine,” this cut will have an immediate impact on the battlefield. She continued, “the US has a monopoly on intelligence and military satellites.”

Elon Musk’s SpaceX-owned Starlink was activated in Ukraine in February 2022 after the invasion hampered internet access. According to Miron, Starlink is also used by the Ukrainian military for “communications, tactical reconnaissance, and the use of FPV [first-person view] drones.”

According to an anonymous source who was informed on the discussions, US negotiators told Kyiv on February 20 that they would shut down Starlink if Ukraine failed to reach a deal on crucial minerals. The US would be able to invest in Ukraine’s resources thanks to the deal on rare earth minerals.

Musk and Trump have a close relationship.

Ranil Wickremesinghe, his presidency, Easter bombings, and the civil war are the topics of Mehdi Hasan’s discussion.

Due to a lack of funds, Bangladesh will have to temporarily reduce the supply of food for about one million Rohingya refugees starting next month.

In a letter released on Wednesday, the World Food Programme (WFP) claimed that “significant funding shortfalls” are causing a decrease in the number of monthly food vouchers from $12.50 to $6 per person.

The letter stated that “unfortunately, we have not yet received sufficient funding, and cost-saving measures alone are insufficient.”

The aid was reduced, according to Mohammed Mizanur Rahman, Bangladesh’s top official in charge of the Rohingya refugee camps.

The Bangladesh refugee relief and repatriation commissioner wrote, “I received the letter confirming a $6.50 cut that will start effective on April 1.”

He called the Reuters news agency to say that what they are already receiving is insufficient and that the effects of this new cut are difficult to imagine.

UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres is scheduled to meet with Rohingya refugees to mark the Muslim fasting month of Ramadan, but the WFP made the announcement days before.

More than one million Rohingya, members of a persecuted Muslim minority who fled violent purges in neighboring Myanmar, were sheltered by Bangladesh in 2016 and 2017. They have limited access to employment opportunities and education in overcrowded camps in Cox’s Bazar’s southern district.

The Rohingya refugees, who rely on aid and suffer from widespread malnutrition, have already experienced severe hardship as a result of successive aid cuts.

Bangladesh has struggled to provide for the refugees because there are slim chances of relocating to another country or finding work.

The Rohingya refugees, who are already living in extremely dire conditions, are “too bad for them,” according to Nay San Lwin, co-founder of the Free Rohingya Coalition.

He told Al Jazeera, “WFP should focus on lowering administrative costs and other expenses while increasing quotas for refugees to receive lifesaving support.”

Instead of putting money into other things, “international donors should prioritize life-saving efforts.”

Health and disease risk

The WFP reported that the funding gap is due to a significant lack of donations, rather than a United States administration decision to reduce its global aid, adding that US support for food aid for the Rohingya has continued.

However, the Trump administration’s decision to stop the majority of its foreign aid will have an impact on the camps’ medical facilities.

Rahman claimed that five US-funded hospitals have had to reduce services and that the hospital budget has been “squeeze on operations” in the Rohingya camps and in waste management. He claimed that reducing food would lead to a “grievous problem.”

According to Rahman, “These people are stateless, miserable, and shouldn’t be suffering as a result of the funding crisis.”

According to Rahman last month, the US contributed about $300 million to the Rohingya humanitarian response in 2024.

Filippo Grandi, the UN High Commissioner for Refugees, expressed his concern that a drop in donor funding would endanger the lives of tens of thousands of refugees.

The enormous work done by the Bangladesh government will suffer if donor support drops significantly, which could happen, putting thousands of people at risk of hunger, disease, and insecurity, according to Grandi in a post on X.

According to the UN, a previous round of ration cuts to Rohingya in 2023, which reduced the amount of food rations to $8 per month, resulted in a sharp rise in hunger and malnutrition.

The camp population “struggled to get an adequate diet” for 90 percent of the population in less than a month, according to them, and more than 15 percent of the children developed malnutrition, the highest rate ever observed. Later, the cut was reversed.

The European Commission announced on Monday that 76 million euros ($79.4 million) of humanitarian aid will be distributed to Rohingya refugees and other Myanmar residents.

According to EU Crisis Commissioner Hadja Lahbib, “the EU firmly supports Rohingya refugees in Bangladesh, just as we have for the past seven years.”