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According to experts, Europe is unprepared to stop a new chapter of Russian intelligence and military activity in the Baltic and North Seas.

They claimed that the continent is being unsupported by a growing rift between European and American intelligence services.

The European Union summit last week served as an example. Russia’s attempt to finance Ukraine’s defense was foiled by Belgium’s attempt to boost Europe’s defense sector. In the summit’s conclusions, Russia’s “shadow fleet,” which is suspected of espionage and sabotage operations, was not mentioned.

One of the few US universities that teaches intelligence and national security, Joseph Fitsanakis, assistant director at the Center for Applied Intelligence at Coastal Carolina University, said, “Europe is no more ready to face Russia’s military advances than it was in 1939 as Nazi troops were at the door.”

He told Al Jazeera, “Front-line states like Finland, Poland, and the Baltics have no doubts about what is coming.” However, I worry that Western European populations are not even mildly aware of the dangers putting their security at risk because of internal divisions and Russian disinformation operations.

Russian intelligence has been accused of sabotage and propaganda campaigns aimed at dividing people since 2022.

According to Anna Wieslander, Northern Europe director for the Atlantic Council, a US think tank, “the hybrid warfare is about making us stressed, making us feel vulnerable in peacetime, and… exhausting us in a way toward the final goal that Russia has for Europe, which is a division again into spheres of interest,”

“Emergency of time”

On September 10, two dozen Russian Geran-2 drones entered NATO airspace to test Polish air defenses, giving rise to more overt alleged Russian activities.

Only three drones had crossed into Poland during the three and a half years of Ukrainian war.

Three Russian MiG-31 fighter jets flew over the Gulf of Finland for 12 minutes, and the alarm was raised in Europe. Estonian F-35s flew in search of them in a rush of Italian air.

Then, on September 21, Germany scrambled two Eurofighters to intercept a Russian Ilyushin 20-M reconnaissance aircraft in its Baltic Sea airspace without a flight plan or radio contact.

Two Hungarian Gripen fighters flew from Siaulai in Lithuania four days later to intercept a Su-30, Su-35, and MiG-31 “flying close to Latvian airspace.”

Russia has historically begun “special activities” during what Russian planners refer to as the “special period,” also known as the “period of emergency.” This phrase refers to a period of rising tensions just before the start of a full-fledged war, according to Fitsanakis.

Russian military is “actively preparing for war with NATO”

Since January 2024, Western intelligence services have warned that a NATO-Russian conflict might break out within five to eight years.

This could occur sooner, according to Martin Jager, head of Germany’s Federal Intelligence Service.

He told lawmakers, stating that Europe was facing “a new quality of confrontation” and that “we must not sit back and assume that a potential Russian attack will not occur until 2029 at the earliest.”

Demetries Andrew Grimes, a decorated veteran US special forces commander, described the “period of emergency” as “testing responses, gathering intel, and blurring civilian-military lines,” adding that Europeans refer to it as “phase zero.”

The Russian military is actively preparing for war with NATO, according to Fitsanakis, along with the Russian intelligence community.

The Kremlin has refuted claims that Russia is to blame for drone attacks in recent weeks and claims that Europe is to blame for igniting hysteria.

A Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs official on Saturday, Rodion Miroshnik.
A senior official in affairs told the Tass news agency that Europe has “unfortunately assumed a hawkish position.”

He claimed that European politicians were attempting to “prevent direct bilateral contact between Russia and Ukraine, between Moscow and Washington, just to settle the conflict’s issues.”

fragmented responses

Everything is being allegedly used as weapons in Russia’s alleged war preparation, according to analysts.

Russians’ “shadow fleet,” which is a group of oil tankers that are pursuing sanctions, is suspected of operating drones in the Baltic Sea and carrying information to intercept NATO communications.

After the Russian tanker was alleged to have launched drones, French commandos seize the Boracay on October 2. A drone swarm that occurred 80 kilometers (50 miles) south of Copenhagen in late September caused the city’s airport to close, and it then traveled off the coast of Denmark when several regional airports reported drone swarms.

According to observers, nations that rely on Chinese surveillance to track drones could also face collusion with Moscow and Beijing. On September 22 when Oslo Airport was impacted by a drone swarm, Norwegian’s Chinese-built drone detection system was taken offline by its manufacturer, DJI Aeroscope.

According to experts, drones continue to threaten infrastructure, including airports and oil and gas terminals.

Polish F-16s, Dutch F-35s, and Italian airborne early warning and control (AWAC) planes immediately intercepted Russian drones in Poland, but they only used high-cost combat aircraft. Ukraine has experimented with mobile fire trucks, pickup trucks, antidrone unmanned aerial vehicles, and man-portable air defense systems. It is currently getting ready to use helicopters.

Poland is transferring lessons from Ukraine. It contracted Ukrainian combat veterans to train Polish drone pilots days after the incursion, and it has forewarned Russia that it will shoot any unrecognised object over the land. Poland, however, belongs to a group of eastern NATO nations that are more vocal and active about Russia’s alleged threats.

Danish authorities have yet to confiscate one of the older tankers, despite promising to do so in terms of environmental and insurance compliance.

Wieslander, a Stockholm-based journalist, claimed that the Nordic and Baltic nations could act “on a much larger scale” to combat the “shadow fleet” and that “it would actually hit Russia where it is vulnerable and where it feels it.” He laments, however, that there hasn’t been a coordinated strategy for this.

“We urgently need unified sanctions, massive counterdrone investments matching innovations, EU-wide merchant fleet inspections or bans, and boosts to Baltic surveillance,” Grimes said.

On which side does the US stand?

For satellite surveillance and eavesdropping of large-scale signals, European intelligence has relied on the US.

Recently, it was revealed that US intelligence played a key role in Ukraine’s successful attack on Russian refineries. To evade Russian air defenses, US information was used to choose targets, timing, and route planning.

Fitsanakis claimed that the quality of that collaboration is deteriorating.

An utterly dysfunctional political elite is using American intelligence services as political pawns while denying that the Russian threat is a priority.

Dutch intelligence recently stated that it is restricting the communication with US services, and that it is not the only European agency doing this.

According to Fitsanakis, “European intelligence agencies have long stopped sharing important information with Washington,” which would indicate concern about the potential exposure of their networks.

He claimed that politics are the root of the issue.

The United States’ approach to the war is so inconsistent at this point that its proclamations, which appear vacillating depending on the day, have essentially no strategic significance.

In other words, it’s unclear which side the US is running.

The trust of Europeans in Washington’s commitment to its allies and the rule of law has been undermined by US threats against Greenland, a sovereign Danish territory, and Canada.

President Donald Trump presided over the signing of a peace declaration between Thailand and Cambodia, beginning his weeklong, high-stakes diplomatic tour of Asia in the Malaysian capital, Kuala Lumpur.

Trump had flown to Malaysia to attend the summit of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), where he also signed separate trade deals on Sunday with Cambodia, Thailand and Malaysia as well as agreements on critical minerals with Bangkok and Kuala Lumpur.

A peace declaration between Cambodia and Thailand, which expanded on a ceasefire agreement reached in July, which brought deadly border clashes to an end, was the highlight of his appearance.

The agreement was overseen by Malaysia’s Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim, who currently chairs ASEAN, and the prime ministers of the ASEAN neighbors, Thai Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul and Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Manet.

While the regional leaders hailed the ceasefire as “historic”, the differences between them run deep with decades-long disputes over their border and temples claimed by both sides.

What’s the deal, then, and is there a guarantee of a ceasefire?

What do we know about the peace agreement?

The neighbors’ “unwavering commitment to peace and security” and “unwavering commitment to an immediate halt to hostilities” were reiterated in a joint statement released on Sunday by the leaders of Thailand and Cambodia, confirming their earlier commitment to refrain from using force and respect each other’s sovereignty and territorial integrity.

The most thorough attempt to put an end to the conflict between Thailand and Cambodia along their disputed border has been made by Trump, as Trump has called it.

At the core of the deal is a plan for military de-escalation under ASEAN members ‘ supervision. With the approval of a new ASEAN Observer Team (AOT), the two parties agreed to remove large weapons from border areas and return them to their regular bases.

The agreement addressed a “information war” that has recently erupted and heightened tensions in both nations, in addition to military measures. Bangkok and Phnom Penh pledged to refrain from spreading false or inflammatory claims through official or unofficial channels.

Both countries have agreed to resume normal diplomatic relations and coordinate local-level discussions through established bodies like the Joint Boundary Commission and the General Border Committee.

One of the key factors leading to the recent round of fighting was the commitment to coordinate and implement humanitarian de-mining in the border regions.

Upon fulfilment, Thailand has undertaken to release 18 Cambodian soldiers captured during this year’s fighting.

Which response has the other side given?

Anutin said Bangkok stands for peace and “this declaration, if fully implemented, will create the building blocks for a lasting peace”.

Hun Manet referred to the joint declaration’s signing as a “historic day.”

According to Anutin, “it will kick off the restoration of our ties,” adding that “innocent civilians have suffered significant losses.”

Anwar said the agreement “reminds us that reconciliation is not concession but an act of courage”.

Trump has the longest speaking career.

Trump said, “Everyone was sort of surprised that we got the [the ceasefire] done so quickly,” while seated with the regional leaders in front of a backdrop covered in the words “Delivering Peace.”

“My administration immediately began working to prevent the conflict from escalating”, he added, recalling how he had learned of the fighting while visiting his Turnberry golf course in Scotland in July.

Trump continued, “I said this is much more important than a round of golf,” noting that “I could have had much fun doing this, saving people and saving countries.”

Trump bragged that there has never been another war like the eight that my administration has ended in eight months. “It’s like, I shouldn’t say it’s a hobby, because it’s so much more serious, but something I’m good at and something I love to do”.

What was the fighting about?

Thailand and Cambodia have had the worst relations in decades.

The conflict between the Southeast Asian neighbors has long been a source of tension due to its 800 km (nearly 500 km) border. Both sides dispute demarcations drawn in 1907 during French colonial rule in Cambodia.

The border regions are home to numerous ancient temples, some of which both sides claim. Communities on both sides of the border that share ancestry and heritage also reside in the conflicted areas.

In February, a dispute over Prasat Ta Moan Thon, a Khmer temple, flared up after Thai police reportedly stopped Cambodian tourists from singing their national anthem at the contested site.

After a Cambodian soldier was killed in a border dispute in May, there were more escalations and a full-fledged diplomatic crisis.

The fighting then grew even more severe in late July, with numerous fatalities reported on both sides over the course of five days. At least 300, 000 people were displaced on both sides.

Trump contacted both leaders, saying he would not negotiate trade deals with them if the fighting continued. Both nations’ export markets are dominated by the US.

However, tensions came to the fore again in August when Thai soldiers were injured by landmines while patrolling a buffer zone between the countries. Cambodia allegedly laid new mines in violation of the ceasefire, a claim that Phnom Penh vehemently refuted.

De-mining along the border and the elimination of heavy weapons are now included in the expanded peace agreement.

What is the current situation on the ground?

The current truce is still fragile because of local disagreements and conflicting political views in both nations.

Both of their prime ministers thanked Trump for his actions at the ceremony on Sunday. Hun Manet also reminded Trump that his government had nominated the US president for the Nobel Peace Prize, an international recognition that Trump campaigned for&nbsp, but did not get when this year’s prizes were handed out this month.

The countries’ land border crossings were closed as a result of the tensions, which still impede bilateral trade, which reached $ 10.45 billion last year.

Hun Sen, Cambodia’s former longtime leader, and Hun Manet’s father, filed a complaint with the UN earlier this month about “intense, high-pitched noises” being broadcast across the border.

The still powerful Hun Sen said Thailand was broadcasting ghost-like sounds from its Sisaket province, and the Cambodian Human Rights Committee accused Thailand of “engaging in psychological warfare”.

Since October 10, the committee has blasted high-decibel sounds from “ghosts,” wailing children, howling dogs, and roaring helicopters through loudspeakers at night.

According to The Nation newspaper, Thai social media activist Kannawat Pongpaibulwech, also known as Kan Chompalang, is responsible for the nightly sound explosions at Ban Nong Chan and Ban Nong Ya Kaew in Sisaket province.

Kannawat, who had received permission from the Thai army regiment overseeing security in the border province to carry out the campaign, said he aimed to drive out Cambodian settlers encroaching on Thai territory.

Anutin claimed that the tactic violated no fundamental human rights. He claimed that we had to defend our sovereignty.

The ceasefire will it continue?

The joint declaration, according to Chheang Vannarith, a political analyst and the head of Cambodia’s National Assembly Advisory Council, is “a positive, significant step toward the restoration of peace and normalcy” in the area.

“The ceasefire will hold, but the international community must keep closely monitoring the implementation”, Vannarith said, adding that Trump’s role has been “decisive” in brokering the deal. He continued, “He has a lot of weight.”

However, he claimed that Bangkok’s tensions could be changed by domestic political manipulation.

Thitinan Pongsudhirak, a professor and senior fellow at the Institute of Security and International Studies at Bangkok’s Chulalongkorn University, said that post-summit, the ASEAN bloc would have to contend with the lasting effects of the Thai-Cambodian conflict over the coming years, “spilling into the Philippines’s turn to chair next year and possibly Singapore’s in 2027 when ASEAN turns 60”.

The respective governments of Thailand and Cambodia “appear intent and incentivized to stoke the flames of nationalism for domestic political gains,” he said despite progress being made in negotiations to lower the tensions and restart border talks.

Anutin, according to Thitinan, “will likely try to use domestic anti-Cambodian feelings and reactions to gain electoral advantage ahead of a new poll by the second quarter of next year.”

In Cambodia, Hun Manet could rally anti-Thai grievances and resentments to maintain political control and divert attention from allegations involving scam centres and transnational crime based in Cambodia, Thitinan said.

According to Thitinan, “the Thai-Cambodian conflict has become ASEAN’s albatross, and bilateral, ASEAN mechanisms urgently need to be focused on mitigation and resolution.”