SADC must act now to save Mozambique from becoming a failed state

On January 9, Mozambique’s main opposition leader, Venancio Mondlane, made his return home after two months in self-imposed exile.

He kneelted down in front of the Maputo International Airport gates, prayed for his country, and declared himself the “president-elect of the Mozambican people,… elected by the genuine will of the people,” and said “the president-elect of the people.”

He addressed reporters, claiming that the government was carrying out an “silent genocide” by kidnapping and killing opposition members to conceal grave irregularities in the October 9 elections. Then, in a wry encounter between state security forces and thousands of protesters who had demonstrated their support for the 50-year-old Pentecostal preacher, occurred.

The dreary postelection reality of Mozambique, which was characterized by widespread anti-government protests and senseless state violence, was exemplified by the chaotic scenes that day at the airport.

After the elections, the Mozambique Electoral Commission (CNE) was quick to declare the Frelimo Party, which has been at the helm of the country for 50 years, and its presidential candidate, Daniel Chapo, as the rightful winners. It claimed Chapo won more than 70 percent of the votes and Mondlane, backed by the Podemos party, came second with just 20 percent.

However, several independent electoral missions, including the European Union Electoral Observer Mission&nbsp and the Episcopal Conference of Mozambique, had already come to the conclusion that Chapo’s victory was neither free nor fair by the time the CNE announced the official results. They made reports of irregularities during the counting and results alteration both at the local and district levels.

Mondlane and other opposition figures demanded a repeat of the results, immediately, and encouraged supporters to challenge Frelimo.

The Frelimo government reacted by imposing a severe crackdown on all public dissenting viewpoints.

More than 300 people, including several children, have died in the violence in the past three months. Among the tragic losses are Elvino Dias, a legal representative of Mondlane, and Paulo Guambe, an official from Podemos, who were both shot dead by unknown assailants in the capital, Maputo, in October. Mondlane made the decision to temporarily relocate abroad for his safety shortly after these killings.

In Mozambique and the surrounding area, the election controversy has caused economic chaos.

Frequent large-scale protests began to disrupt commerce&nbsp, while vandalism and looting became commonplace, thrusting the Southern African nation into a perpetual state of severe uncertainty, trepidation and unrest.

Due to the Lebombo border post’s ongoing closures, South Africa’s mining sector experienced daily losses of 10 million rand ($562, 822) and potential shutdowns. Moreover, a prison riot in Maputo on Christmas Day led to the escape of 1, 500 prisoners, highlighting a critical failure in law and order.

On December 23, Mozambique’s Constitutional Council confirmed Chapo’s electoral victory, officially extending Frelimo’s 50-year tenure in office. This judgement, however, served only to escalate the fury of the protesters.

Mozambicans began looking for solutions to the country’s current crisis as they began to lose faith in the capacity of their nation’s internal mechanisms to ensure democratic governance.

A group of Mozambican civil society organizations wrote an extraordinary plea to South African President Cyril Ramaphosa on January 6 asking him to intervene to end the conflict between Frelimo and the opposition.

In order to resolve the crisis, they urged Ramaphosa to encourage the participation of the African Court of Justice, the International Criminal Court, and the Peace and Security Council of the African Union.

Without a doubt, this request was unusual.

The Mozambican activists opted to start a bilateral engagement with South Africa, the region’s dominant democracy, rather than the Southern African Development Community (SADC), the regional body that should be in charge of any outside efforts to end the hostility. Although it was not surprising that the SADC showed signs of distrust, it also underscored how urgently important it is for the regional body to improve its performance.

The SADC Troika, which is currently made up of Tanzania, Malawi, and Zambia, had convened a virtual summit to discuss the situation in Mozambique the day before the petition was filed in Pretoria. The troika directed the SADC Panel of Elders and a ministerial committee to speak with opposition leaders and the Mozambican government at the meeting.

Although this was a step in the right direction, it is important to remember that many people saw it as a last-ditch effort to save faces.

Indeed, the SADC election observer mission, unlike all the others, had eagerly endorsed the October 9 polls, declaring that they were “professionally organised” and took place in an “orderly, peaceful and free atmosphere”. This stance had already demonstrated that the SADC cannot function as an objective and impartial arbitrator in this crisis, in the opinion of the majority of protesters.

The Democratic Republic of the Congo and Zimbabwe’s, eSwatini, and Angola’s regions had long been aware of the SADC’s tendency to ignore widespread electoral malpractice and state oppression.

In fact, those in Mozambique already knew how to expect a lot from the SADC when it comes to protecting democracy long before these most recent elections.

Five years ago, Mozambique’s previous Frelimo-backed president, Filipe Nyusi, had secured a second term in office after declaring victory in the 2019 elections.

The opposition and several independent electoral missions similarly maintained this poll was marred by widespread irregularities, intimidation, violence and political assassinations. The bullet-ridden body of Babula Jeque, the Renamo Women’s League leader in Zumbo, was found next to her husband’s in the western province of Tete a day before votes were cast.

The SADC maintained cordial relations with the Frelimo government despite not doing much to address the issue as it does now.

The SADC cannot continue to cooperate with the Frelimo government as if it wants to maintain its credibility and bring about positive change in the region.

More importantly, Mozambique could become the site of a much deeper, more violent crisis that would be disastrous for both its more than 30 million citizens and the entire region if the SADC or even the African Union did not immediately intervene.

For 16 years from May 1977 to October 1992, Mozambique experienced a devastating civil war. More recently, since 2017, the gas-rich northern province of Cabo Delgado has been a target of a violent insurrection that has resulted in the displacement of 946, 000 people.

Meanwhile, the country is ranked 183 out of 189 countries on the 2023-2024 United Nations Human Development Index. Despite having a wealth of natural resources, it is one of the poorest and least developed nations in the world, with a national poverty rate of 74.7 percent.

Moreover, Mozambique is overwhelmed by systematic lawlessness.

In December 2022, Elisa Samuel Boerekamp, the general secretary of the Mozambican Judges Association, said her country had encountered “a crisis of the democratic rule of law”. Following the passage of the Single Salary Table, a law that weakened the authority of the lower court judges, Frelimo implemented this.

In addition to making blatant attempts to undermine the rule of law, corruption is prevalent in the nation. Nearly two million people are now living in poverty as a result of the infamous $ 2 billion hidden debt scandal involving Frelimo officials, which reportedly cost Mozambique at least $ 11 billion. It also reportedly caused a significant drop in the cost of public healthcare in Cabo Delgado.

In this troubling setting, the wounds caused by electoral irregularities could easily lead to a devastating internal conflict if left untreated.

Thankfully, for now, Mondlane and his supporters persist in their belief that elections, rather than insurgency, serve as the most viable avenue for enacting change, even in the face of the many difficulties arising from Frelimo’s unscrupulous and inept administration. However, it’s impossible to predict that another group will choose to use the same strategy in the future. The population’s frustrations and desperation for change are persistently growing because of the apparent lack of interest in supporting Mozambican democracy supporters.

The SADC must get its act together right away to stop appeasing the ruling party and take concrete steps to put Mozambique on the verge of true democracy.

The SADC protocols’ leaders must ensure that Mozambique begins to fulfill its statutory obligations.

On January 15, Chapo was sworn in as Mozambique’s new president. In his first major performance as mayor, he fired Bernadino Rafael, the police chief who had been accused by opposition figures of working with criminal organizations to kidnap and kill civilian protesters following the election. The new president appears to be trying to win the support of the populace by allowing the angry electorate to forgive and forget the state-sanctioned violence that accompanied his ascension to office.

The people, however, will not forget. The SADC should not forget either of these.

The regional body must now take action to ensure that the following election cycle doesn’t result in a repeat of the previous three months.

If it doesn’t, Mozambique could end up being reduced to a failed state in the near future, which runs the risk of becoming completely irrelevant.

Businesses close in protest against Trump’s immigration policies

In a day of protest against President Donald Trump’s immigration policies, several businesses, including nurseries, grocery stores, and salons, across the country.

On Monday, people gathered in Los Angeles for the second day in a row. Waving Mexican and El Salvadoran flags, they carried banners that said “Immigration Built This Nation”, “No I. C. E”., “Abolish I. C. E”. and “I did not serve this country for you to denigrate my people.”

Trump signed executive orders beginning on January 20 that included measures to end birthright citizenship and directed to expelling large numbers of immigrants.

In the weeks that followed, US Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) intensified its daily raids.

However, employees and business owners who claimed they needed the income were constrained by their participation in the “day without immigrants”; this was especially true given that many migrant communities are afraid to leave, with consequences for some even affecting some schools.

Following Sunday’s protests on Sunday in California and other locations, the event on Monday also came to mind.

The North Atlantic States Regional Council of Carpenters’ Noel Xavier, the organization’s organizing director, noted that many workers couldn’t afford to take a day off, despite the importance of showing the country how important migrant workers are to the communities they serve.

“If I don’t go to work today, that’s one day less that I have, you know, to be able to pay for my next rent”, Xavier said of the prevailing sentiment among the workers he organises. “I didn’t notice the significant support for doing that or having the luxury of doing that.”

Andrea Toro decided to close her hair salon in Chicago’s Pilsen neighbourhood. She added that many of her clients are teachers and have witnessed children who have left school since Trump took office last month because they fear traveling may not be safe.

Why did Trump pause Canada, Mexico tariffs? Inside 24 hours of chaos

United States President Donald Trump announced that he would “immediately pause” tariffs on Mexico and Canada for 30 days after speaking with their leaders on Monday.

However, a 10 percent tariff on all China exports comes into effect on Tuesday.

So what led to this decision, and why was the pause announced?

What happened between the US, Canada, Mexico and China?

On February 1, Trump signed executive orders imposing 25 percent tariffs on Mexico and Canada, with a partial exemption for Canadian energy and oil exports, and a 10 percent tariff on China.

Trump has also spoken against the high trade deficit in goods with the three countries that together stands at more than $480bn. China, Mexico, and Canada collectively made up more than 40 percent of US imports of goods last year at $1.2 trillion.

He said these tariffs would remain in place until the countries took steps to curb the flow of migrants and drugs, particularly fentanyl, into the US. The tariffs risked increasing the cost of online goods and prompted global market uncertainty over the risk of a sharp slowdown in global growth.

However, on Monday, the leaders of Mexico and Canada struck last-minute deals, pausing the impending tariffs.

Mexico’s President Claudia Sheinbaum announced the deployment of 10,000 National Guard officers to the border to curb drug trafficking and migrants into the US after speaking with Trump.

Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau also had two calls with Trump after which he announced a 30-day pause in the US tariffs. In return, Canada has agreed to send forces to the border to fight drug trafficking and undocumented migration as demanded by the new US administration.

Meanwhile, the 10 percent tariff Trump imposed on China took effect at 12:01am EST (05:01 GMT) on Tuesday.

China imposed retaliatory tariffs on a range of US goods and products, including a 15 percent levy on imports of coal and liquefied natural gas (LNG). Beijing also slapped 10 percent tariffs on crude oil imports and farm equipment.

Amid the tariff war, Trump said he intends to speak with Chinese President Xi Jinping in the coming days.

Why did Trump decide to pause the tariffs?

According to experts, the primary objective of the tariffs was “to strategically meet the goals of Trump’s foreign policy and domestic policy, and that was to stop the flow of the illegal drug fentanyl into the United States”, Al Jazeera’s Kymberly Halkett reported from the White House.

“You have to remember fentanyl is responsible for approximately 70,000 overdose deaths in the US each year. While much attention has been focused on Mexico and the southern border, US officials have also identified Canada and the northern border as key entry points for the drug,” Halkett added.

According to a report by The New York Times, in 2024, US Customs and Border Protection agents seized approximately 19kg (42 pounds) of fentanyl at the northern border, a stark contrast to the nearly 9,600kg (21,164 pounds) intercepted at the US-Mexico border, where cartels mass-produce the drug.

Canada’s McGill University professor of economics Julian Karaguesian suggests that this dispute may not be over.

“It’s possible that President Trump was just trying to not only make a show but actually fulfil a campaign promise and create a flurry of activity to show his base and to show the wider American public that he is not only fulfilling his campaign promises but he is doing it with extreme prejudice,” Karaguesian said.

What’s next for China?

Trump has repeatedly criticised China for allowing fentanyl to flood into the US, accusing Beijing of not doing enough to curb the supply of both counterfeit and real fentanyl.

China has called the fentanyl crisis “America’s problem”.

“China is one of the world’s toughest countries on counter-narcotics both in terms of policy and its implementation. Fentanyl is an issue for the US. In the spirit of humanity and goodwill, China has given support to the US’s response to this issue,” a Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs spokesperson said in a release on Tuesday.

“It’s important to remember that the PRC [People’s Republic of China] was already facing tariffs imposed by the Trump administration during his first term, and the Biden administration never removed them. These new tariffs come on top of those existing measures,” Ja Ian Chong, from the National University of Singapore, told Al Jazeera.

“So far, China has responded relatively calmly, suggesting that a 10 percent tariff is something they can withstand. While the PRC economy has slowed, they have been working to diversify into other markets and boost domestic consumption. We will have to see how that strategy unfolds,” he added.

During his first term in 2018, Trump launched a fierce two-year trade war with China, imposing tit-for-tat tariffs on about $50bn worth of Chinese imports.

“We have a tremendous intellectual property theft problem,” Trump said in 2018. “It’s going to make us a much stronger, much richer nation.”

To end that trade war, China agreed in 2020 to increase its annual purchases of US goods by $200bn, but the plan was disrupted by the COVID-19 pandemic, and Washington’s annual trade deficit with China remained above $300bn, according to Chinese customs data released last month.

China, the world’s second-largest economy, says the “unilateral tariff hike” by the US “seriously violates World Trade Organization rules”. It also launched an anti-monopoly investigation into Google and imposed controls on rare earth exports crucial for the manufacture of semiconductors.

Trump speaks at Trump Tower in New York City [File: David Dee Delgado/Reuters]

What happens in the next 30 days?

It is not quite clear yet. But analysts say the Trump administration would likely hold negotiations with Mexico in the next 30 days.

“The big concern for Donald Trump is the flow of illegal substance fentanyl as well as illegal immigration into the United States, something that the US president addressed already through an executive order,” Al Jazeera’s Halkett said.

The Al Jazeera correspondent said US officials are going to negotiate the trade deficit with Mexico over the next month. The US trade deficit with Mexico stands at more than $100bn.

At the northern border, Trump said he was very pleased with the outcome of the negotiations, but he was also looking for a “final economic deal”.

“I am very pleased with this initial outcome, and the tariffs announced on Saturday will be paused for a 30 day period to see whether or not a final economic deal with Canada can be structured,” Trump posted on social media. “FAIRNESS FOR ALL!”

Trump has also expressed interest in Canada becoming the 51st state of the US, a notion that Trudeau has rejected.

(COMBO) This combination of pictures created on February 03, 2025 shows Canada's Prime Minister Justin Trudeau in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, on November 19, 2024 and US President Donald Trump at Joint Base Andrews in Maryland on February 2, 2025. US President Donald Trump said he had spoken on February 3, 2025, to Prime Minister Justin Trudeau about the punishing tariffs he has levied on Canada, adding that they would talk again later in the day. (Photo by Mauro PIMENTEL and Jim WATSON / AFP)
Canada’s Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and US President Donald Trump [Mauro Pimentel/AFP]

On Monday, Canada also made important announcements.

“Canada had agreed to name Mexican drug cartels as terrorist organisations. We’re going to name a fentanyl ‘tsar’ as a result of the conversation between Prime Minister Trudeau and President Trump. There is the creation of a Canada-US joint strike task force to combat organised crime,” Canada’s McGill University professor of economics Julian Karaguesian said.

“While those commitments by Canada have been successful in getting a one-month delay in the imposition of tariffs,” Karaguesian said, “I don’t personally believe this is the end of the story.”

OpenAI joins forces with South Korean tech giant Kakao after DeepSeek scare

NewsFeed

Sam Altman, the CEO of OpenAI, and South Korean tech giant Kakao have signed a deal as his company searches for new alliances following the demise of DeepSeek, the world’s largest AI company. Altman says the partnership, which lets Kakao use ChatGPT for its artificial intelligence services, will prioritise safety.

Uganda starts clinical trial to combat Sudan strain of Ebola

Uganda has kicked off a clinical trial of a vaccine against Ebola that killed one person in the outbreak declared last week.

Health workers and other people exposed to the strain are being targeted in the trial which began four days after Uganda announced the death of a nurse in the capital, Kampala.

Two more cases were confirmed on Monday in relatives of the first victim.

It is the sixth time Uganda has been hit by an outbreak of the Sudan strain of the virus, for which there is no approved vaccine. Of the five other Ebola species, just one has licensed vaccines.

The deadliest Ebola epidemic killed more than 11, 300 people in West Africa between 2013 and 2016.

“This vaccination trial was initiated with record speed”, the World Health Organization (WHO) chief Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said on X.

A Ugandan doctor attends to contacts of a patient during the launch of the vaccination for Sudan Ebola virus at the Mulago Guest House in Kampala, Uganda, on February 3]Abubaker Lubowa/Reuters]

A system for candidate vaccines was put in place during a previous outbreak of the Sudan Ebola virus in Uganda in 2022, paving the way for a trial during the next outbreak, the WHO said.

The doses are being used in a “ring” vaccination scheme where first jabs are given to all contacts of confirmed Ebola patients, and contacts of contacts.

The WHO said the first ring defined Monday involved 40 direct contacts, and contacts of contacts of the health worker who died.

Human-to-human transmission of Ebola happens through body fluids, with the main symptoms being fever, vomiting, bleeding and diarrhoea.

Of eight previous outbreaks of the Sudan Ebola virus, five were in Uganda and three in Sudan.