The opposition in South Sudan claims that First Vice President Riek Machar’s overnight arrest, a long-term adversary of Salva Kiir, has racked up the country’s peace agreement and could lead to a country-wide civil war.
A member of Machar’s party said a convoy of 20 heavily armed vehicles had entered his home in the capital of Juba late on Wednesday and had taken him into custody. This marked a startling escalation of a conflict that has been raging there for weeks.
According to Al Jazeera’s Malcolm Webb, who was reporting from Nairobi, “military vehicles drove into his residence at night and forcefully disarmed all of his guards.” Only Machar is still at the residence after they remove all of the phones and laptops from the property, arrest the guards, and leave them in an unknown location.
According to Webb, “soldiers have been closing the area.” Life continues as usual in other areas of the city. This is the result of weeks of escalated violence that the Sudanese People’s Liberation Army (SPLM/IO) describes as a series of attacks by President Kiir’s forces in violation of the peace agreement.
Peace and stability in danger
A power-sharing agreement between Kiir and Machar has been slowly unraveling, putting the civil war that cost around 400,000 lives between 2013 and 2018 at risk.
According to Oyet Nathaniel Pierino, deputy chairman of Machar’s party, “the prospects for peace and stability in South Sudan have now been seriously endangered.”
UNMISS, one of the countries’ representatives, warned that the alleged arrest would put the nation “on the verge of relapsing into widespread conflict.”
In a post on X, the US Department of State on Thursday demanded that Kiir “reverse this action and stop further escalation.”
According to analysts, Kiir, 73, has been working with cabinet reshuffles to ensure Machar’s survival for months.
The agreement of 2018 was focused on two crucial issues, according to Daniel Akech, a senior analyst for International Crisis Group in South Sudan. One goal was to create a constitution that all parties would agree with. Power sharing was the other option that was crucial. And one of the power conflicts involved the opposing sides’ use of military power.
According to Akech, “the president had fired a governor in February who was supposed to be leading Machar’s opposition.” Additionally, he most recently fired the governor of Upper Nile, who was supposed to be working for the opposition.
He responded, “This is obviously a power grab.”
This process is no longer binary, Akech said. Although the president and vice president appear to be the only two actors in the debate, there are many opposition figures. Therefore, it might be very decentralized and involve multiple actors, making it difficult to extinguish the flames if this escalates into violence.
Since October 2023, the Gaza war has claimed the lives of about 17,500 children, the majority of whom were victims of arbitrary bombings. Children arriving at trauma centers with gunshot wounds are one of the most deeply unsettling deaths, though.
These cases are almost daily reported by doctors in Gaza. Their accounts, which have been verified repeatedly throughout the hospital system and over time, reveal a disturbing pattern. Not at random, this. It follows a systematic pattern.
Donald Trump stated in his first address to Congress as US president on March 4 that “Europe has sadly spent more money buying Russian oil and gas than they have spent on defending Ukraine.”
Trump has not always been known for his statistical accuracy, but he may be correct in this instance.
According to a report released on Thursday by Ember, an energy think tank, last year, European purchases of Russian gas totaled 21.9 billion euros ($23.66 billion), compared to 18.7 billion euros ($20.17 billion) in financial aid to Ukraine.
Military assistance was not included in that figure.
Since the start of the war, the European Union has provided or committed $ 94 billion in military, financial, and reconstruction aid to Ukraine.
Ember expressed concern that the EU had increased its imports of Russian gas by 18% last year, far from its promised plan to completely eliminate it by 2027.
To achieve its own security, economic, and climate goals, the EU must start with a clear path for the Russian gas phase-out, according to Ember.
[Al Jazeera]
Ukrainian ambassadors to Kyiv were informed in January by Vladyslav Vlasiuk, a presidential adviser to the president of Ukraine, that the country was upset by last year’s imports of EU gas from Russia.
He claimed that it is time to stop the petrodollar flow that is causing Russia’s aggression.
It’s true that Russia imported more Russian gas in 2023 and 2024, and it will import even more because the US cannot supply more, according to Yiannis Bassias, a veteran of the hydrocarbon industry and energy analyst at Amphorenergy.
In 2024, there were 45 billion cubic meters (bcm) of Russian gas, compared to 57 billion cubic meters (bcm) of US gas.
reducing the volume of Russian energy exports to Europe
Since Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022, the EU has significantly decreased its imports of energy from Russia.
Russian gas supply to Europe reached 179 billion cubic meters at its highest level in a new report released on Wednesday.
Europe purchased 142bcm of Russian gas a year before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
According to the OIES report, that volume dropped to just 31 bcm in 2024 as a direct result of factors linked to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and it could be as low as 16 to 18 bcm in 2025.
Because all of Russia’s gas was previously supplied via outdated pipelines.
In September 2022, unidentified actors blew up one of the twin Nord Stream I pipelines. The four pipelines, which each carried 110 bcm of gas annually, were constructed.
Russia stopped all gas flow by May 2022, a move likely planned a year earlier, according to OIES, and Poland prohibited further gas imports from Russia across its territory. This is because another 33bcm of Russian gas could enter Europe via the Yamal pipeline, which crosses Belarus and Poland.
A pair of pipelines across Ukraine allowed the importation of an additional 65 billion cubic meters of Russian gas, but Ukraine did not do so when its five-year transit contract expired in December.
TurkStream, the only remaining Russian gas pipeline, travels through Bulgaria and Serbia to Hungary and passes through Bulgaria and Serbia to meet its 20 billion cubic meters of annual capacity.
OIES director Jonathan Stern stated to Al Jazeera that the main issue facing the industry today is whether a ceasefire or peace will lead to the return of Russian pipeline gas and the relaxation of Russian liquefied natural gas (LNG) sanctions.
The report suggests that it won’t be simple because pipeline operators are currently required to be bailed out of bankruptcy, repairs and maintenance must be performed, mutual sanctions must be lifted, and a number of breach-of-contract disputes involving hundreds of millions of dollars are resolved through arbitration.
Similar efforts have been made by the EU to defraud Russian oil, but they have had mixed results.
Before approving it in December of that year, Russia imported 88.4 million tonnes of oil in 2022.
By the end of last year, the official EU imports of Russian oil had decreased by 90%, according to the European statistical service. However, this is likely misleading because two-thirds of those imports were made by a Russian shadow fleet.
According to the Kyiv School of Economics, Russia generated $ 189 billion in sales of crude oil and refined petroleum products last year, up from $ 178 billion in 2023.
Good politics versus good economics
Ember thinks that economic decisions made by EU countries are bad.
By 2030, the EU will have a gas surplus of 131 billion cubic meters, according to estimates from the report.
Because Europe imports almost all of its hydrocarbons, it claims, saps it of money to transform grids and transition to renewable energy and exposes it to price volatility and uncertain supply.
Ember and Stern disagreed.
When questioned about whether gas was a necessary investment by 2030, he replied, “No, most governments or the European Commission [think] that because otherwise they wouldn’t continue to spend money on new infrastructure. The answer may be different if the date is changed to 2050.
Others argued that the key to choosing an EU was better politics than economics.
According to Bassias, “the biggest thing for the US and Russia is to open navigational routes in the Arctic and conduct joint oil and gas exploration there.”
He claimed that they were “tacitly cooperating under Biden,” and that it was now official, suggesting that the Ukraine war had hampered that effort.
Miltiadis Aslanoglou, an expert on energy, said, “If one wanted to be strict about imports of energy, one could be.”
Russia is being told by Europe that “we do not depend on you,” which is what it wanted to say. Russia will always be there, it will always be a neighbor, which makes it very difficult to bring its gas trade to zero [diplomatically]. Europe keeps its doors open, Aslanoglou claimed to Al Jazeera.
He suggested that Europe was supporting the once-impressive Russian gas company Gazprom.
No one even knows whether Gazprom will even be around in another five years, according to Aslanoglou, noting that “Gazprom is certainly not the trillion-dollar company it was five years ago.” It is currently in dire financial predicaments. The pipeline network, which is 50 or 60 years old, is hardly up to par with in Russia.
Values versus realism
A different perspective is held by Ukraine.
According to analysis from the Ukrainian organization Frontelligence Insight, its long-range drone strikes inside Russia since September 2017 suggested a policy change from striking ammunition depots to cutting off Russian export revenues from refined petroleum products.
This year, Ukraine has attempted to kill Gazprom by using attack drones to destroy the Russkaya compressor, which pressurizes gas from TurkStream, Russia’s only remaining pipeline.
Russia reported that on January 13 and on March 1, it detonated three drones close to the compressor in the Krasnodar region.
On February 17, Ukraine attempted to shut off Russia’s crude oil offloading terminal in Novorossiysk in the Black Sea, but it was successful.
This week, Russian President Vladimir Putin made a priority of a ceasefire in the Black Sea, likely to stop any additional Ukrainian attacks on Russia’s most important economic lifeline.
In a “good politics” scenario involving Russia, Ukraine does not appear to be the only loser.
According to the International Energy Agency’s Global Energy Review on Monday, Europe’s decarbonization efforts were beginning to produce tangible results.
The IEA reported that while global energy demand increased by 2.2% last year, emissions only increased by 0.8% as a result of the increase in renewable energy capacity, which is a 22nd consecutive annual record for new installed capacity.
That demonstrated that “global economic growth is still disassociated from the growth in energy-related carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions,” according to the IEA.
Similar to what Ember’s message was. Europe is low on hydrocarbons, in contrast to Russia and the US.
Due to its dependence on imported hydrocarbons, Eurostat only generated 37 percent of its energy needs overall last year.
As the conflict between the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) and Sudan’s army nears its two-year mark, the capital’s Khartoum has won some significant victories.
However, the conflict between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and its paramilitary rival, which has ravaged the nation, appears to be continuing.
The country’s territorial integrity may be compromised as a result of the parties’ attempts to establish themselves in the territory now feared to have been supported by each other.
What regions have been taken over by the army?
This month, the Sudanese army and its supporters are celebrating two significant victories.
After his forces took control of the airport from the RSF, imposing full control over the city and causing paramilitary troops to flee southward, army chief Abdel Fattah al-Burhan declared that Khartoum is “free” on Wednesday.
At the start of the war in April 2023, the RSF had seized control of the airport, giving it a tactical and psychological advantage.
The SAF won the airport victory less than a week after its soldiers successfully recaptured Khartoum, marking a significant symbolic victory in the counteroffensive it launched against the RSF in September of last year.
For the first time in two years, Al-Burhan, the country’s de facto leader, entered Khartoum as he announced the full takeover of the city.
What impact will Khartoum have on the outcome of the war?
Khartoum became a key component of the conflict after RSF fighters initially seized some of its territory.
The army now anticipates that its capture will signal a shift in the battlefield’s momentum that could reach other regions.
As both RSF chief Mohamed Hamdan “Hemedti” Dagalo and al-Burhan try to court regional leaders, their influence on the capital’s status may also have an impact on international perceptions.
Retaking Khartoum could give the SAF more leverage in any potential peace negotiations despite the SAF’s refusal to engage in peace talks with its rival.
The RSF used Khartoum airport as a supply and logistics hub while using it in its propaganda and media coverage to highlight its ability to challenge state control.
The army could now exercise better control over supply lines and maneuver with the political symbolism of recapturing Khartoum and the rest of Khartoum.
On March 22, 2025, the heavily damaged building that was the Central Bank of Sudan’s headquarters was pictured in Khartoum’s al-Muqrin neighborhood, including the state intelligence headquarters and the national museum.
Does this indicate that war is on its last legs?
The army and RSF leaders argued over the paramilitary’s integration into Sudan’s armed forces, which caused the conflict to break out.
Because that conflict is more pervasive, and the army and the RSF continue to hold onto large swaths of land while engaging in fierce fighting, making it unlikely that the war-torn nation will ever reach peace.
Fighting is still occurring in the vast Darfur region to the west of Sudan, the Kordofan region in the country’s central and southern regions, and Gezira state, a strategic agricultural hub south of the capital.
No sign of a political settlement or peace process is imminent, and neither side has been able to win the support of its regional supporters.
In fact, the army and the RSF have increasingly launched massive airstrikes in urban areas, causing numerous civilian casualties to fall.
The UN High Commissioner for Human Rights, Volker Turk, said in a statement on Wednesday that he was “deeply shocked” by reports that hundreds of civilians were killed in a strike this week on a busy market in the town of Tora, which is located northwest of el-Fasher city in North Darfur.
What are the war’s humanitarian effects?
One of the worst humanitarian crises in history is still raging because of the power struggle between the two generals and their allies.
More than 12 million people have been forced to leave their homes, many of them to neighboring countries like Ethiopia and South Sudan. With such a lack of resources, countless people are residing in impromptu shelters, camps, or host communities.
Local businesses and non-profits continue to volunteer their services, but parts of Darfur and other areas are experiencing famine conditions and a population squeeze that is putting people at risk.
600, 000 of the nearly 25 million people infected with dire food shortages are “on the brink of starvation,” according to a recent UN report.
The RSF has been accused of systematically looting supplies while the other side of the conflict has been accused of preventing aid from reaching areas that the other has controlled.
Additionally, food production has been hampered by the fighting’s agricultural disruptions.
Millions of children in urgent need of assistance are among the country’s healthcare system, which has largely collapsed, hospitals being destroyed or occupied.
On March 27, 2025, Sudanese citizens celebrate in Port Sudan as the army’s grip on Khartoum’s capital intensified.
What follows?
Experts and stakeholders, including the African Union, have warned that Sudan’s civil war may ultimately result in de facto fragmentation.
The RSF and its allies signed a “founding charter” for a breakaway government last month, which the UN Security Council also expressed “grave concerns.”
Similar conflict and dual power structures that have ravaged South Sudan for decades led to South Sudan’s secession in 2011.
The most likely scenario, given that neither side has indicated it is willing to compromise, appears to be one of attrition in the absence of further international pressure.
In response to the Trump administration’s “America First” policy, French Foreign Minister Jean-Noel Barrot met with Wang Yi for discussions on the Ukraine war and Beijing’s trade dispute with Europe and called for a “powerful Franco-Chinese partnership.”
More than ever, the current situation calls for a strong Franco-Chinese partnership in the name of geopolitical stability, prosperity, and the planet’s future, said Barrot, speaking to students on Thursday morning at the Beijing Language and Culture University.
The tensions between the United States and the European Union are rising as a result of the Paris and Beijing talks, including over Ukraine security and trade.
In order to put an end to more than three years of hostilities in Ukraine, US President Donald Trump has unilaterally urged Russia’s Vladimir Putin to step up and declare that Washington will not accept responsibility for the security of Europe.
He made the announcement on Thursday that automakers in Europe would receive 25% tariffs. The most recent levy is in addition to earlier tariffs placed on both enemies and allies.
Ursula von der Leyen, president of the European Commission, claimed that the tariffs would “wore for consumers” and “bad for businesses.”
Paris anticipates that the talks will center on a resolution to China’s trade war with the European Union and Russia’s conflict in Ukraine.
Following the European Union’s vote to impose tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles in October, China imposed temporary tariffs on imports of European brandy that ranged from 30 to 39 percent.
The move had the biggest impact on French cognac brands, causing a nearly a quarter of the country’s exports’ value to fall.
After meeting top Chinese diplomat Wang at Beijing’s ornate Diaoyutai guesthouse on Thursday, Barrot said, “France opposes any form of trade war and favors dialogue on trade issues, particularly between the European Union and China.”
French Foreign Minister Barrot addresses his speech at Beijing’s Beijing Language and Culture University (BLCU) with the national flags of France and China [Adek Berry/Pool/AFP]
‘Constructive’
Wang said both countries will use the consultation mechanism between both foreign ministries for in-depth communication on common issues, calling the meeting “constructive” and involving discussions on bilateral and China-EU relations.
Both sides should show historical awareness, support multilateralism, and oppose unilateralism in the face of profound changes in the world’s landscape, he said to reporters following the meeting.
Barrot emphasized seeking a resolution to the trade dispute between Wang and Barrot, but Wang avoided it.
Barrot reiterated his country’s support for its cognac industry and reiterated that France opposes any kind of trade war and encourages dialogue on trade issues, particularly those involving China and the European Union.
Barrot will meet with local officials and business leaders in Shanghai on Friday.
Tensions between the US and Europe
Before a major French-hosted meeting on a potential peacekeeping force for the nation, Barrot’s two-day visit provides an opportunity to assess China’s position on Ukraine.
China might help bring Russia to the table in the negotiations to end Ukraine’s war, according to the French foreign minister.
Along with his counterpart Wang Yi, Barrot and Wang Yi reaffirmed that France and China must work together to bring about a just and lasting peace in Ukraine. China can also assist in persuading Russia to make good-faith proposals for a deal at the table.
The US and Europe are at a crossroads over support for Ukraine, with Washington increasingly perceived as backing Moscow.
The Houthi rebels in Yemen were mistakenly discussed in a group discussion moderated by its editor-in-chief, Jeffrey Goldberg, by The Atlantic magazine.
The release on Wednesday came after US President Donald Trump sought to minimize the significance of the texts shared on the Signal messaging app, calling them “not a big deal.”
As the US military prepared to launch its assault on Yemen, some of the most significant messages that were published appear to have been sent on March 15 by an account that appears to be Pete Hegseth.
Among those present at the conversation were Vice President JD Vance, National Security Advisor Mike Waltz, CIA Director John Ratcliffe, and White House Chief of Staff Susie Wiles, who purportedly worked for the White House as Homeland Security Advisor Stephen Miller (SM), as well as Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard (TG).
The senior US officials talking about the strikes on the day of the strikes, as described in detail, are provided in this transcript:
March 15
Hegseth (11: 44 am ET):
CHANGE IN THE TEAM.
Weather is favorable right now (1144et). We are a GO for mission launch, we just CONFIRMED with CENTCOM.
1345: “Trigger Based” F-18 1st Strike Window Starts (Target Terrorist is@his Known Location; SHOULD BE ON TIME; see also, Strike Drones Launch (MQ-9s).
1410: More F-18s LAUNCH (2nd strike package)
1415: Strike Drones on Target (THE FIRST BOMBS WILL FINALLY DROP, pending earlier “Trigger Based” targets).
First sea-based Tomahawks to be launched in 1536. Second Strike:
MORE TO DO (based on the timeline)
On OPSEC, we are currently clean.
Our warriors, Godspeed.
Vance (12.13pm ET):
I’ll ask for victory in prayer.
Waltz (13: 48pm ET):
VP. The structure fell. had a number of positive identification. The IC did a fantastic job, Kurilla, and Pete.
Vance (13.54 pm ET):
Waltz (14.00pm ET):
Vance (14.01pm ET):
Ratcliffe (14.36pm ET):
Waltz
Rubio (17: 14pm ET):
Good work, Pete and your team! !
Waltz (17: 15pm ET):
The MAL team did a fantastic job as well.
Stephen Miller (17: 18pm ET)
Great work, everyone. a strong start
Hegseth (17: 20pm ET):
CENTCOM was/is effective. Great work, everyone. Additional strikes are ongoing for hours tonight, and we will publish a full report tomorrow. But they have been good readouts so far, on time, and on target.
Wiles (17: 21pm ET)
Kudos to everyone, especially those working on CENTCOM and theaters! Absolutely fantastic. God’s blessings.
Middle Eastern special envoy Steve Witkoff (17:47 p.m. ET)
Gabbard (18: 35pm ET)
Great effects and work!
The transcript below contains excerpts that reveal how the attacks developed:
March 13
Waltz (16: 28pm ET):
Creating a principles group to coordinate Houthis, particularly over the next 72 hours.
Following the meeting in the Sit Room this morning, my deputy Alex Wong is putting together a tiger team at the deputies/agency chief of staff for action items, which he will distribute later this evening.
Please provide your team’s best staff POC for us to coordinate with over the coming days and the weekend. Thx.
Marco Rubio (16: 29pm ET):
Mike Needham for the state
JD Vance (16: 29pm ET):
VP Andy Baker
Tulsi Gabbard (16: 30pm ET)
Joe Kent for DNI
Scott Bessent (16: 39pm ET)
Treasury, Dan Katz
Pete Hegseth (16: 53pm ET)
DoD Dan Caldwell
Brian (18: 34pm ET)
NSC’s Brian McCormack
March 14
Waltz (08: 05am ET):
In your high side inboxes, you should receive a statement of conclusions with taskings as per the President’s directive this morning.
We created suggested notification lists for regional allies and partners in the form of state and DOD.
We will collaborate with DOD to ensure COS, OVP, and POTUS are informed about the more specific sequence of events in the upcoming days.
Vance (08: 16am ET):
Team, I’m in Michigan for a day of work and attending an economic event. However, I believe we are in error.
The Suez accounts for 3% of US trade. 40% of trade occurs in Europe. There is a real chance that the general public is unaware of this or its necessity.
According to POTUS, sending a message is the only way to go about doing this. The president may not be aware of how incongruent his position on Europe is right now with his message. A moderate to severe increase in oil prices is another possibility.
I’m willing to back the team’s consensus and keep these issues a secret. However, there is a compelling argument to postpone this for a month, conduct research on why this matters, assess the state of the economy, etc.
Joe Kent, Gabbard staff chief of staff, quoting (08:22 AM ET):
Driving the time line is not time-sensitive. In a month, we will have the exact same choices.
The Israelis will most likely launch strikes against the Houthis, and they will likely demand more from us.
That’s just a small part, though. The unclass data we obtained from BAM shipping will be sent to you.
Ratcliffe (08: 26am ET):
We are currently mobilizing resources from the CIA, but a delay would not have a negative impact on us and time would be used to find better starting points for coverage of Houthi leadership.
Hegseth (08: 27am ET):
VP (Vance): I fully understand your concerns regarding the POTUS and support you in every way.
Important factors, the majority of which are difficult to predict (economy, peace in Ukraine, Gaza, etc.)
No one knows who the Houthis are, so I believe messaging will be difficult no matter what. This is why we would need to stay focused on 1) Biden’s failure and 2) Iran funding. The calculus does not change in a fundamental way by waiting a few weeks or a month.
There are two immediate risks to waiting: 1) this leaks, which makes us look indecisive; 2) Israel acts first, or Gaza ceasesfire ends, so we don’t get to start this on our own terms. We are able to handle both. If there was a final go or no go vote, we should be able to carry out, and I think so.
Not the Houthis are the subject of this. Restoring the country’s fundamental right to navigation, which Biden cratered, and restoring deterrence, which Biden cratered, are two things I see.
However, pause is simple to make. And if it does, I’ll do everything in my power to enforce the OPSEC to the fullest. I’d like to hear your opinions.
Waltz (08: 32am ET):
Our current trade figures include 30% of container and 15% of global trade. It’s challenging to pin that down to US.
Specific because a significant portion of the container, either moving through the red sea or around the Cape of Good Hope, is going to Europe and is being made into products for transatlantic trade to the United States.
Whether or not we stop now, the European navies are unable to withstand the sophisticated, anti-ship, cruise missile, and drone warfare the Houthis are currently using.
Therefore, it will have to be the US, whether it is now or in a few weeks, when these shipping lanes are reopened. We are collaborating with the president to figure out how to collect the costs and levy them on the Europeans, at the president’s request.
Waltz (08: 42am ET):
We are the only ones with the ability to decide, as we did in the first PC, whether to allow the sea lanes to remain closed or to re-open them now or later.
We absolutely agree with all of the messaging that the Europeans must use to promote their defense.
Vance (08: 45am ET):
Let’s leave, Pete Hegseth, if you think we should.
I detest re-inflating Europe’s bailout.
Vance (08: 46am ET):
Just make sure the messaging is consistent here.
And we should do it if there are things we can do right away to reduce the risk to the Saudi oil facilities.
Hegseth (08: 49am ET):
VP: I completely agree with you about European free-loading. It is PATHETIC.
However, Mike is correct in saying that we are the only people on the planet capable of doing this (on our side of the ledger). Nobody else comes even close.
The question is about timing. Given the POTUS’s recommendation to reopen shipping lanes, I believe this is the best time to act. Although POTUS still has 24 hours of decision-making time, I believe we should leave.
SM (09: 35am ET):
The president said, “Green Light, but we soon make clear to Egypt and Europe what we expect in return,” as I heard it.
We need to determine a way to put such a requirement into effect as well. What, EG, if Europe doesn’t make money?
There must be some additional economic gain if the US is successful in restoring freedom of navigation for a sizable price.
