Category World News

The United States government will shut down on Wednesday if Democrats and Republicans in Congress cannot reach an agreement on a vital funding bill.

The shutdown could temporarily halt some US government services and put the salaries of government employees on hold – or even end them altogether.

While it has been normal practice to place staff on “furlough” during previous government shutdowns – meaning they are reinstated and receive back pay once the government is up and running again – this time, the Trump administration is threatening to fire people permanently.

Why might the government shut down?

The new fiscal year for the federal government begins on October 1, but Congress has not agreed on a necessary short-term funding bill.

Republicans control both chambers of Congress.

In the Senate, Republicans hold 53 seats and Democrats, 47. The Republicans have fallen short of the 60 votes needed to pass legislation. The Senate majority leader is Republican John Thune, and the minority leader is Democrat Chuck Schumer.

In the House of Representatives, Republicans hold 220 seats and Democrats hold 212. The House speaker is Republican Mike Johnson, the majority leader is Republican Steve Scalise, and the minority leader is Democrat Hakeem Jeffries.

The disagreement is over a short-term spending bill introduced by the Republicans, lays out the funding of government operations until November 21. Without it, the government cannot function.

What is the dispute about, exactly?

The main stumbling block is continued funding for the Affordable Care Act, also called Obamacare, which is popular with voters and enables low-income people to access healthcare, John Owens, an emeritus professor of US government and politics at the University of Westminster in London, told Al Jazeera.

Democrats are refusing to back the Republican bill unless Republicans undo recent cuts to Medicaid enacted under Trump’s “One Big Beautiful Bill” in July.

Democrats additionally want to extend special tax credits that reduce the cost of health insurance for Americans. These credits are set to expire later this year.

Therefore, Senate Democrats have proposed a range of alternatives, including a seven- to 10-day funding bill, along with other possible measures that could run concurrently, two Senate Democratic sources told the Reuters news agency on Monday.

Republicans have rejected these proposals, however, and, so far, neither side shows any sign of backing down. Earlier this week, US President Donald Trump cancelled talks with Democratic leaders, deeming their demands “unserious”.

As a result, Congress is in limbo and is not expected to vote on anything this week.

On Monday, congressional leaders left a meeting with Trump without reaching a deal. Schumer and Jeffries have blamed the Republicans for the impending shutdown.

Hours after that meeting, Trump posted an AI-generated, “deepfake” video of Schumer and Jeffries with fabricated audio on his Truth Social platform. It depicts Jeffries wearing a large sombrero and sporting a handlebar moustache while Schumer says, “If we give all these illegal aliens healthcare, we might be able to get them on our side so they can vote for us.”

The video has been condemned by Democrats as a racist dogwhistle alluding to Mexicans. “It’s a disgusting video and we’re gonna continue to make clear bigotry will get you nowhere,” Jeffries said. “We are fighting to protect the healthcare of the American people in the face of an unprecedented Republican assault.”

How likely is it that there will be a government shutdown?

The disagreement over healthcare funding is far from being resolved. Furthermore, Owens explained that any Senate agreement must also be approved by the House, where Trump’s party has a slim, hard-right majority closely aligned with him. However, some Republicans in the House are also fearful of the effects of the healthcare cuts in their districts.

“With midterm elections due next November, there is tremendous pressure, particularly on electorally vulnerable Republican senators who are also under pressure from Trump to support his cuts,” Owens said.

“Whether the current impasse results in a shutdown remains to be seen. Its effects will depend on its length and the ultimate willingness of Trump and his party, and the Congressional Democrats to reach some kind of compromise.”

Trump himself does not seem optimistic about resolving the impasse. “I just don’t know how we’re going to solve this issue,” CBS News reported, quoting him, on Sunday.

US Vice President JD Vance also warned that the government is heading for a shutdown, blaming Democrats. “I think we’re headed into a shutdown because the Democrats won’t do the right thing,” Vance told reporters after the meeting on Monday.

If Congress does not agree on a short-term funding bill by midnight on Tuesday (04:00 GMT on Wednesday), the shutdown will prompt federal closures at 12:01am on Wednesday (04:01 GMT).

On Tuesday, the crypto-based prediction market, Polymarket, placed the odds of a government shutdown at 86 percent.

What happens during a government shutdown?

A government shutdown happens when a lapse in funding forces parts of the government federal agencies with non-essential functions to cease operations.

Under US law, if the government shuts down, agencies are required to “furlough” – suspend or discharge – their “non-excepted” employees. Once the shutdown is over and operations resume, furloughed employees receive their backdated pay, due to a 2019 bill passed by Congress enshrining this into law.

An “excepted employee” is a US federal civil service employee who “protects life and property”. While excepted employees stay on the job during a government shutdown, they do not get paid until the shutdown ends.

Each agency develops its own plan for the shutdown, deciding which employees will stay and who will be furloughed.

Owens estimated that about 900,000 federal workers would be laid off if the shutdown happens.

Some government work continues during a shutdown. Members of the armed forces, FBI, CIA and air traffic controllers continue to work.

Programmes funded by mandatory spending, such as Social Security and Medicare, also continue during a shutdown.

The US Postal Service, which is not funded by tax money, continues operations during a shutdown.

Has the US government shut down before?

Yes, most recently during Trump’s first term as president.

Two years into Trump’s first term, in December 2018, Congress could not reach an agreement on federal funding, prompting a 35-day partial shutdown, the longest in modern US history.

This caused the complete or partial shutdown of nine federal departments: Agriculture, Commerce, Homeland Security, Housing and Urban Development, Interior, Justice, State, Transportation and Treasury.

Trump had demanded that Congress give him money for the construction of a border wall between the US and Mexico. The House speaker at the time was Democrat Nancy Pelosi, who did not agree with this. Trump retreated after 35 days. During this standoff, approximately 340,000 of the 800,000 federal workers at affected agencies were furloughed.

During the administration of Democratic President Barack Obama, there was a 16-day government shutdown in October 2013. This shutdown was pushed by hard-right House Republicans who insisted that Obamacare should be blocked in the spending bill. The shutdown was resolved following bipartisan talks in the Senate – again, Republicans’ demands were not met.

The US has also experienced government shutdowns in the 1970s, 80s and 90s, under Democratic President Bill Clinton, Democrat Jimmy Carter and Republican President Ronald Reagan, who experienced eight shutdowns.

What is different this time?

This time, the White House’s Office of Management and Budget (OMB) has sent out a memo on September 24 instructing government agencies to prepare for large-scale layoffs of federal workers if the government shuts down. Agencies must send their proposed staff reduction plans to the OMB and notify employees if a shutdown occurs.

This is a more aggressive move compared with previous shutdowns, when furloughed employees would be reinstated after government operations resumed. In this case, these federal employees will be fired permanently and will not be reinstated after government operations are resumed.

Democratic leaders in Congress condemned the memo. “This is an attempt at intimidation,” Schumer wrote in response to the memo on X on September 25. Jeffries responded as well, posting on X on the same day: “We will not be intimidated by your threat to engage in mass firings.”

What else could be impacted by this?

If the shutdown takes place on Wednesday, the monthly jobs report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), which is to be released on Friday, is likely to be delayed because the BLS is one of the agencies to be closed.

Key data about inflation, which was set to be released in mid-October, could also be delayed.

A nationwide telecoms shutdown has been imposed in Afghanistan, as part of a Taliban crackdown on “immoral activities”.

Netblocks, a global internet watchdog, said on Monday that multiple networks in Afghanistan had been disconnected. Telephone services had also been limited, resulting in what Netblocks described as a “total internet blackout” in the nation of 43 million people.

Connectivity was cut in phases on Monday, with the final stage affecting telephone services. In the past, the Taliban have voiced concern about online pornography. And earlier this month, authorities cut fibre-optic links to some provinces, with officials citing morality concerns.

“The incident is likely to severely limit the public’s ability to contact the outside world,” the group added.

This is the first time that the whole of Afghanistan has faced an internet blackout under the hardline Islamist government. It risks cutting off the country, which is in desperate need of humanitarian assistance, just weeks after a devastating, magnitude-6 earthquake in the east of the country.

Which telecoms services are being restricted?

Earlier this month, the Taliban began to close down internet services. On September 16, the Balkh provincial spokesperson stated that fibre-optic internet had been completely banned in the northern province.

“This measure was taken to prevent vice,” he wrote on social media. At about the same time, restrictions were also reported in the northern provinces of Badakhshan and Takhar, as well as in Kandahar, Helmand, and Nangarhar in the south.

Cloudflare Radar – an international internet traffic monitor – said Kabul had suffered the sharpest municipal drop in internet connectivity, followed by the western city of Herat, and Kandahar in the south.

On Monday, online TV channel TOLOnews reported that the authorities had set a one-week deadline for the shutdown of 3G and 4G internet services for all mobile phones, leaving only the 2G mobile network active.

Telephone services have also been compromised, as they are routed over the internet and share the same fibre-optic cables.

What is likely to be worst-affected?

Internet and communications

Tolo warned viewers of disruption to its news services and added that the shutdown would affect its own internal operations.

Elsewhere, both The Associated Press (AP) and AFP news agencies said they were unable to contact their bureaus in the capital city, Kabul.

On Tuesday, Al Jazeera attempted to contact people in Kunar, Jalalabad and Kabul by WhatsApp and by phone from outside Afghanistan, but no messages or calls got through.

Afghan citizens living abroad, such as rights activist and journalist Nilofar Ayoubi, report that they have been unable to communicate with family members.

Flights

Some flights from Kabul airport have been disrupted. According to flight tracking service Flightradar24, nine flights scheduled to depart from or arrive at Kabul International Airport on Tuesday were cancelled. Other flights went ahead as planned.

Even before the Taliban takeover in August 2021, the Afghan economy was fragile. Some 47 percent of the country’s population were living below the poverty line. Unemployment stood at 11.7 percent in 2020, and 34.3 percent of people with jobs were living on less than $1.90 per day, Sheela Samimy, an economist and former director in the Afghan Ministry of Finance, told Al Jazeera at the time.

A telecoms shutdown could well exacerbate Afghanistan’s economic struggles.

Internet platforms – such as Aseel, an online platform enabling Afghan artisans – mostly women – to sell handmade jewellery, carpets and pottery to customers around the world while setting their own prices – are expected to be badly affected by the internet blackout as vendors and customers become unable to connect to these sites.

Aseel also enabled people from overseas to donate humanitarian aid via its website.

Afghans who earn a living via social media platforms such as YouTube will also be affected.

Financial and healthcare services

Diplomatic officials told the BBC that the internet shutdown could affect banking systems across the country, in addition to business operations and hospital services.

What does the Taliban say about all this?

AFP reported that a government official told it on Monday that the fibre-optic network it relies on for operations would be shut down. “Eight to nine thousand telecommunications pillars” would be shut down, he said, adding that the blackout would last “until further notice”.

Since seizing power in 2021, the Taliban has imposed numerous restrictions on society in line with its strict interpretation of Islamic law. But strictures ordered by the leadership, based in Kandahar, have grown increasingly hardline recently.

Authorities banned Afghan women working for the United Nations from entering its offices in September. This follows prohibitions on women in numerous jobs, while girls were prohibited from attending high school in 2021. Women are now also banned from higher education.

Many women and girls have since relied on online classes provided by educators abroad or by charitable organisations. This latest clampdown on the internet means these opportunities are now also under threat.

The Taliban says it respects women’s rights in line with its interpretation of Islamic law.

But women’s rights activist Sanam Kabiri, an Afghan living in Pakistan, said: “The Taliban are using every tool at their disposal to suppress the people.

“What else do these ignorant men of another century want from our oppressed people?”

Will this hamper ongoing earthquake rescue efforts in Afghanistan?

On August 31, a devastating magnitude 6.0 earthquake in eastern Afghanistan killed more than 2,200 people and injured some 3,600, according to the Taliban authorities. As rescue efforts persist, hundreds of thousands of people have been displaced.

Women have remained largely absent from earthquake clear-up operations, in large part because the Taliban has barred them from working for nongovernmental organisations operating in the country – which remains highly dependent on humanitarian support.

In many parts of Afghanistan, women may not travel without being accompanied by a male “guardian”, making it harder for women to either receive or provide support in the aftermath of the earthquake.

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