What might the US do next after Venezuela?

The abduction of Maduro raises legal questions, but there is little criticism from the West.

Despite questions about its legality, the United States’ abduction of Venezuela’s president Nicolas Maduro has been scharf criticized by his allies but not by Westerners.

Does the operation indicate a fresh US strategy for aggression? And what might the global impact be?

Presenter: Adrian Finighan

Guests:

Former US ambassador to Venezuela under President George W. Bush Charles Shapiro

University of Birmingham Professor of International Security, Stefan Wolff

Venezuelans reflect on Maduro’s removal, grappling with hope and fear

Wilmer Castro wasn’t surprised by the flurry of messages that lit up his phone because he was 26 years old.

However, as he began to scroll on Saturday morning, he realized that the messages were not birthday wishes but news that Nicolas Maduro had been ousted from power.

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The university student said to Ejido, “I think it is the best gift I will ever receive, one I will never forget.”

Castro recounting the events that led to Maduro’s death to his grandchildren and great-grandchildren, told Al Jazeera that he was so excited by the news that he began daydreaming about his future self.

“I’ll let them know that a dictator fell on January 3, 2026, and that moment is going to be very beautiful.”

Following months of growing tensions between the two nations, including US strikes on alleged drug-trafficking vessels and US ships being deployed close to Venezuela’s coastal waters, the country’s long-standing authoritarian leader and his wife were abducted by the US.

However, a significant quiet had ruined Castro’s initial joy by Sunday morning. The city came to a gloomy halt due to uncertainty’s impact, which closed in on him and made him feel unlike he had previously felt.

It’s like being alone in a field. I can’t describe the mournful silence, he said.

Many Venezuelans felt that uncertainty early on Sunday.

Since 1999, Venezuela has had a socialist government, first under President Hugo Chavez and then under Maduro. This transition, which started with oil-funded social programs but turned into economic mismanagement, corruption, and repression, was followed by international sanctions, which have further strained the population.

The opposition alliance’s leadership sprang up amid anticipation of the presidential election of 2024. However, a crackdown on dissention took place when Maduro won despite the opposition’s claims that Edmundo Gonzalez Urrutia won overwhelmingly. Many Venezuelans came to the conclusion that any actual transition might require external pressure or even intervention.

Deathly silence

Edward Ocariz, 54, was woken up on Saturday in southeast Caracas by a loud crash and vibrating windows in his home close to Fort Tiuna military barracks. He assumed there was an earthquake, but when he looked outside, he observed unfamiliar helicopters winging their wings in the air.

He claimed that “the noise kept coming.” Because I’ve never seen them here, I could tell immediately that they were not Venezuelan.

Then it stopped abruptly as it had begun.

According to Ocariz, “there was a deathly silence,” adding that the brief suspension of mobile phone services and power outages contributed to the silence. We were “wary to understand what was happening.”

Fear was present in the information that did manage to seep through, according to Ocariz. However, it was a fear that was “mixed with enormous joy.” It’s challenging to explain.

Ocariz reflected on the suffering he had endured under the president’s rule on Sunday as images of a blindfolded and handcuffed Maduro began to circulate.

The human rights activist claimed he was wrongfully accused of “terrorism” and spent nearly five months in the maximum-security facility in Carabobo state’s Tocuyito prison.

The country had a long history of detention for those who opposed him under Maduro. Nearly 2,500 protesters, human rights activists, journalists, and opposition figures were detained following the tumultuous 2024 election. Some people were later released, but others are still in prison.

“It made me feel happy. In full knowledge that Maduro won’t have to endure the miserable conditions he did in prison, or be denied food and legal counsel, Ocariz said, “a process of justice is finally beginning.”

Ocariz warns that more needs to be done in spite of the joy he and other Venezuelans are currently experiencing.

Because it is well known how the police and justice system use their authority to criminalize whoever they choose, the population still experiences a lot of fear [from the authorities] — psychological fear.

Important institutions have remained in the hands of Nicolas Maduro’s inner circle, including acting president Delcy Rodriguez, who has been appointed vice president.

However, seeing a senior Chavista figure still in power, especially as the Trump administration continues to work with her, unsettling for many Venezuelans, including Castro and Ocariz.

“It is undoubtedly frustrating for me. I am aware that Venezuela needs to maintain its administrative, functional, and operational management as a country, Ocariz said, adding that there must be some restraint and order in the US to combat the power vacuum.

concerns about the economy

Venezuela’s militarisation continues to be a concern, and there are persistent fears of more unrest. The authorities relied on “colectivos,” armed civilian groups that rights organizations accused of intimidation and violence, in times of dissent.

Jose Parejo &amp, Associates in Caracas, an energy and political risk analyst, expressed concern about the possibility of more riots and social unrest.

According to him, “any potential new government that will proceed with the elimination of the top ranks of the armed forces and security and police forces will result in the colectivos’ disarmament,” adding that addressing the persistent economic crisis should also be one of the top priorities.

According to him, “a new government that implements quick economic reforms leading to a recovery will outweigh the ideological legacy of the Bolivarian revolution,” referring to Chavismo, a concept that is characterized by anti-imperialism, patriotism, and socialism.

The US, specifically the sanctions it placed on the oil sector, has long been held responsible for Venezuela’s economic woes by those who are loyal to Maduro.

Chalhoub said he thought Trump’s pledge to boost the nation’s oil production might boost the economy, but he found the US president’s claim that the US will “run the country” illogical.

Not everyone is, however, happy with the attack by the Trump administration.

The US president is reportedly engaged in an imperialist schema with the intention of “robbing” Venezuela of its natural resources, according to Alex Rajoy, a mototaxi driver in Caracas.

Rajoy said he will stay at home over the upcoming days because he fears more attacks would occur despite his anger.

He said, “These missiles aren’t just going to Chavistas,” making reference to those who support Venezuela’s socialist ideology.

He continued, “They also threaten opposition people,” noting that anyone who backs foreign intervention is considered a betrayal. He claimed that it was “treason against the homeland.”

Now what?

Fear for his immediate needs, including concerns about whether stores would remain open in the Ejido and rising costs, has slowed Castro, the university student, as he pondered the excitement he felt on Saturday. He has long struggled to buy basic items under Maduro.

He claimed that “people in the street were going crazy yesterday.” Because we don’t know what the future holds, everyone is buying food with half of what they already have in their bank accounts and buying what they could.

The scenes made me think of the shortages of 2016 and the country’s crisis, which caused people to wait for hours and travel between stores with restrictions on what they could buy.

Castro claimed that Venezuelans are considering the country’s future and the uncertainty surrounding it a day after the attack.

Greek flights restart after radio loss grinds airport operations to halt

Venezuela’s oil, not alleged drug trafficking, caught Trump’s eye

Donald Trump, the president of the United States, and his associates have been saying for weeks that Venezuela’s rhetoric and military stances were intended to stop the flow of narcotics.

However, a lot of evidence, including Trump’s own words in response to President Nicolas Maduro’s abduction, suggests that Venezuela’s vast, proven oil reserves, which are estimated to be the largest in the world, account for about 303 billion barrels, are what Washington’s true interest is.

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Officials called the attacks on Saturday in Caracas an “abduction of two indicted fugitives” on narcotrafficking charges, which the US president had initially characterized as an anti-drug operation. According to other allegations, Maduro was charged with “narco-terrorism conspiracy and cocaine importation conspiracy” in the Southern District of New York courts.

Trump, however, began openly discussing oil and US control of Venezuela shortly after the US attacks on Caracas, which resulted in the deaths of dozens of civilians, officials, and military personnel.

The US president made the claim at a press conference held at his Mar-a-Lago residence in Florida that the country would “run the country” for the time being, rebuild the oil industry, and “take out a tremendous amount of wealth from the ground” to sell to global customers, including rivals China and Russia.

Maduro has consistently denied involvement in the drug trade and accused Washington of using it as an excuse to import oil and other resources, despite the Trump administration’s repeated calls for fentanyl from Venezuela to be “weapon of mass destruction” and launches airstrikes on ships accused of transporting controlled substances.

(Al Jazeera)

Oil is essential for Venezuela’s recovery

There hasn’t been a significant change in the South American country’s power structure as a result of the president’s sudden abduction.

As a future legal framework is being created, Vice President Delcy Rodriguez has been given the order from Venezuela’s Supreme Court’s constitutional chamber to act as acting president “to guarantee administrative continuity and the comprehensive defense of the nation.”

She had previously served as the country’s oil minister and finance minister, which greatly influenced the country’s troubled economy and efforts to revitalize the underdeveloped oil sector, which had been the result of sanctions and mismanagement.

If Rodriguez “does what we want,” Trump threatened to not occupy Venezuela. Additionally, he objected to Maria Corina Machado, the opposition leader, claiming she lacks the support or “reputation” of the populace.

Venezuela’s oil, which Trump and other US officials have characterized as US oil, is likely to play a role in what the US wants from Rodriguez, given that the country’s nationalization of its oil industry between the 1970s and the 2000s, which led to the departure of the majority of US oil companies.

“They took all of our oil rights, if you’re any good, from not very long ago,” if you recall. And in December, Trump said, “We want it back.”

Trump has added that Venezuela’s oil reserves will pay for any costs the US will incur as a result of its alleged US damage.

Venezuela depends heavily on oil, and the US had used its influence to exert pressure on it prior to Maduro’s disappearance.

Since 2017, US policy toward Venezuela has been heavily influenced by US sanctions, particularly in light of combined Trump-era directives. Washington has implemented measures to impose restrictions on the shipment of diluents necessary for heavy crude, including the state-owned oil company Petroleos de Venezuela, SA (PDVSA).

Trump imposed a blockade of sanctioned oil tankers entering or leaving Venezuelan waters, which resulted in the confiscation of at least two tankers, among other sanctions, including last month.

Venezuela’s oil exports and pressure are just a few of the main causes of Venezuela’s oil reserves not being comparable to those of the US.

According to preliminary estimates based on ship movements, Venezuela’s oil exports averaged about 950, 000 barrels per day (bpd) in November, and the US “oil embargo” reduced them to around 500, 000 barrels per day (bpd) last month.

In contrast, major oil exporters like Russia and Saudi Arabia typically export millions of barrels per day.

Former Venezuelan National Assembly head Francisco Rodriguez claimed that the nation’s main prospects for economic growth are gold and oil reserves.

According to him from the US state of Colorado, “If the US moves to remove the sanctions and clear the obstacles for investors to come back in, you can get the oil output to 2.5 million barrels per day in the next three to five years,” he told Al Jazeera.

The former official said, “I believe what the Trump administration is saying is that we need to prioritize the recovery of the oil sector and get the economy to a manageable level so that we can think about a more orderly political transition.”

However, “it can actually be quite dangerous and lead to chaos if you try to give the opposition the power right away without having established the foundation for economic recovery.”

What does this mean for OPEC and others?

The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) has not experienced a significant change in the organization’s (at least in the near future) because of the developments in Venezuela. However, things could alter fundamentally over time.

Due to Venezuela’s ageing infrastructure, production cannot be increased quickly, and US unilateral US seizures of tankers close to Venezuela’s waters only increased before stabilizing.

Some wells are mechanically compromised, while Venezuela’s upstream oil infrastructure, particularly under PDVSA, frequently requires complete redrilling or complete shutdown, and routine preventive maintenance largely stopped after the US embargoes.

The US has blocked the flow of crude oil, and storage, blending, and upgrading facilities are bottlenecked, with many operating well below the nominal capacity. Additionally, the crude cannot be exported or flown without diluents.

However, theoretically, OPEC will experience a supply glut or be forced to adjust quotas if a US-controlled Venezuela can increase output quickly in the future. Washington would lose indirect but significant influence over global supply, compromising the delicate balance that members have long tried to maintain.

If Caracas long-term leans toward the US, neighboring countries in West Asia like Iran and Saudi Arabia will also suffer.

After the recent demise of senior Iranian officials in the Tehran-backed “axis of resistance,” the anti-US and anti-Israel establishment in Iran has lost a significant ally in Maduro.

Iran’s efforts to grow its oil sector have been hindered by stringent Western sanctions, and it sends its oil, like Venezuela under Maduro, through a shadow fleet of ships, to China. Iranian oil would be further hampered by a robust return to the market for Venezuelan oil.

Spanish Empire: Sword and Cross

How Spain forged a global dominance through the use of force, armies, and missionaries to conquer the world.

This movie explores how the Spanish empire combined military dominance, religious conversion, and imperial power to create its global dominance.

The close knuckle between the church, the crown, and conquest was at the heart of the Spanish expansion. Missionary efforts were unrelated because conversion to Christianity served as both a means of control and a justification for empire. Faith and force combined, transforming societies across the Americas.

The documentary explores how Spanish dominance was established through alliances, religious authority, and the Aztec and Incan empires’ conquests. The indigenous life was reorganized around churches, labor unions, and colonial government as a result of the mission system’s spread throughout the Americas. Conversion imposed cultural destruction and forced salvation.

The film also examines Spanish imperial power’s economic foundations. Along with the exploitation of indigenous and enslaved labor, large quantities of gold and silver were extracted from the Americas. These resources helped to integrate the Americas into an emerging global system fueled by inequality and extraction, as well as finance global trade.