Category World News

The US has announced the Gaza ceasefire is moving to phase two, where “demilitarisation, technocratic governance, and reconstruction” will be the focus.

Hamas leaders and representatives of other Palestinian factions in Gaza are in the Egyptian capital, Cairo, for talks, but deep uncertainty remains regarding the next steps.

Most of the goals in Trump’s 20-point plan that became the basis for a ceasefire in Gaza three months ago never became a reality on the ground. Here is what has happened in each of the main points of the plan since the ceasefire took effect on October 10, 2025.

What was supposed to happen in phase one?

Phase one of Trump’s 20-point plan was designed to immediately halt the fighting, facilitate the exchange of Israeli and Palestinian captives, set a boundary for Israeli withdrawal from parts of Gaza, allow the full entry of humanitarian aid, and open the Rafah crossing between Gaza and Egypt.

1. Halt on attacks

Status: Did not stop

While the daily number of Israeli attacks has decreased since the start of the ceasefire, Israel has killed at least 451 Palestinians and injured 1,251 – an average of nearly five killed every day – since October 10.

More than 100 children, including at least 60 boys and 40 girls, are among those killed, according to UNICEF.

2. Israeli captives returned in exchange for release of Palestinian prisoners

Status: All captives returned except for one; Israel has not released all the prisoners agreed on

Under the ceasefire deal, Hamas released all 20 living Israeli captives in exchange for nearly 2,000 Palestinian prisoners. Hamas has also returned 27 of the 28 bodies of deceased captives, while the search is still on for the remaining body, believed to be buried under the rubble of buildings bombed by Israel.

However, Suhail al-Hindi, a member of the Hamas political bureau and one of the supervisors of the exchange deal, told Al Jazeera that Israel has failed to release all women and child prisoners as stipulated in the agreement.

It also continues to hold several doctors, including Dr Hussam Abu Safia, Dr Marwan al-Hams, and Dr Tasneem al-Hams, among many others.

Israel has also reneged on a clause in the agreement under which it was to allow the entry of DNA-matching equipment intended to identify the bodies of deceased Palestinian prisoners.

3. Israeli withdrawal

Status: Did not fully withdraw

As part of the ceasefire deal, Israel was supposed to withdraw its troops to an area dubbed the “yellow line”, which takes up more than 50 percent of Gaza and is marked on the ground with a series of yellow concrete blocks.

Al Jazeera’s Sanad fact-checking agency found that Israeli forces have been moving these blocks, thereby expanding their areas of control and forcing Palestinians into increasingly smaller clusters. Israel has also carried out large-scale demolitions of neighbourhoods and surrounding areas near the yellow line.

4. Full humanitarian aid

Status: Israel continues to restrict aid

The ceasefire stipulated that “full aid will be immediately sent into the Gaza Strip”. However, the reality on the ground remains very different. Israel continues to restrict aid.

According to the Gaza Government Media Office, from October 10, 2025 to January 9, 2026, only 23,019 trucks entered Gaza out of 54,000, averaging 255 trucks per day. That is only 43 percent of the trucks that were supposed to have been allowed in.

Israel has blocked essential and nutritious food items, including meat, dairy, and vegetables, crucial for a balanced diet. Instead, non-nutritious foodstuffs are being allowed, such as snacks, chocolate, crisps and soft drinks.

In addition, Israel has banned more than three dozen international organisations, including Doctors Without Borders, known by its French initials MSF; Oxfam; the Norwegian Refugee Council; CARE International; the International Rescue Committee and several other charities from operating in Gaza, further worsening already dire conditions for Palestinians.

5. Opening of Rafah crossing

Status: Did not happen

The Rafah crossing, a key lifeline for aid entry, travel, and medical evacuations, and the main border point between the Gaza Strip and Egypt, remains closed by Israeli forces.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu stated that Israel will only reopen the crossing after it receives the body of the last remaining deceased captive, who is buried under the rubble following more than two years of Israeli onslaught.

What is supposed to happen in phase two?

Phase two is supposed to shift the focus to long-term governance and the establishment of a panel of Palestinian technocrats to lead post-war Gaza.

Trump’s special envoy Steve Witkoff said it “establishes a transitional technocratic Palestinian administration in Gaza” and ​marks the beginning of “the full demilitarisation and reconstruction of Gaza, primarily the disarmament of all unauthorised personnel”.

However, Al Jazeera’s Hind Khoudary, reporting from Gaza City, said the Gaza deal has so far brought no change on the ground. “We’re still hearing the sound of drones [hovering above] and there have been a couple of explosions in the early morning hours, as demolitions take place across Gaza.”

How many times has Israel violated the ceasefire?

Since the declaration of a ceasefire in the Gaza Strip on October 10, 2025, Israel has violated the agreement with near-daily attacks, killing hundreds of people.

Israel violated the ceasefire agreement at least 1,193 times from October 10, 2025 to January 9, 2026, through the continuation of attacks by air, artillery and direct shootings, the Government Media Office in Gaza reports.

According to an analysis by Al Jazeera, Israel has attacked Gaza on 82 out of the past 97 days of the ceasefire up until January 14, meaning there were only 15 days in this period when no violent attacks, deaths or injuries were reported.

Despite continuing attacks, the US insists that the “ceasefire” is still holding.

A South ‍Korean court ‍has sentenced former president Yoon Suk Yeol to five years in jail after finding him ⁠guilty on charges stemming from his declaration of martial law ‍in ⁠December 2024. Al Jazeera’s Jack Barton is outside the court in Seoul.

The United States’ bid to control Venezuela’s oil sector after abducting Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro has shone a spotlight on the type of crude held by the Latin American country.

Crude oil, which is produced by about 100 countries, comes in hundreds of varieties that differ by viscosity and sulfur content.

While all grades of crude oil are valuable, their differing properties make certain grades more sought after in some markets than others.

What is the difference between ‘heavy’ and ‘light’ grades of oil?

Crude oils are rated as “heavy” or “light” based on their viscosities, or “gravities”.

Crude is also classified by sulfur content, with high-sulfur grades called “sour” and lower-sulfur varieties referred to as “sweet”.

Heavy, sour grades are more difficult and costly to refine into petroleum products such as gasoline, diesel, kerosene and jet fuel.

Generally speaking, lighter and sweeter crude commands higher prices.

Some countries and regions primarily produce certain grades.

Canada mainly produces heavy, sour crude, for example, while African varieties tend to be lighter and sweeter.

Popular light, sweet varieties include Saudi Arabia’s Arabian Super Light, Iran’s South Pars Condensate, Malaysia’s Tapis Blend, and Australia’s Cossack.

Among the most traded heavy, sour varieties are China’s Shengli, the United Kingdom’s Kraken, Iraq’s Basra Heavy, and Iran’s Soroosh.

What type of oil does Venezuela have?

Venezuela has the world’s largest proven oil reserves, at an estimated 303 billion barrels.

Most of those reserves are made up of heavy, sour crude located in the Orinoco Oil Belt in the centre of the country.

The basin’s oil is especially dense and vicious, with a tar-like consistency that necessitates specialist methods such as steam injection and diluents for extraction.

Industry analysts say tapping the basin’s true potential will require huge investment due to the degraded state of the sector’s infrastructure and knowledge base, following late leader Hugo Chavez’s nationalisation of the industry and years of US sanctions that prevented Venezuela from accessing foreign capital and modern technology.

The Latin American country’s output was estimated at about 860,000 barrels per day (bpd) in November, less than 1 percent of the world’s total, a steep decline from its 1970s peak of about 3.5 million bpd.

Rystad Energy, a consultancy based in Oslo, Norway, has estimated that about $110bn in capital investment would be needed to return to the country’s late 2000s output of about 2 million bpd.

US President Donald Trump, whose decision to kidnap Maduro has been widely condemned as a violation of international law, has said US oil companies are prepared to invest billions of dollars to revive production.

Why is Venezuela’s heavy crude particularly attractive for the US?

Some industry analysts have expressed scepticism that US oil companies will be drawn to Venezuela – at least not without significant incentives and guarantees.

They point to the post-Maduro leadership uncertainty, Chavez’s past expropriation of company assets, and the excess supply of oil in the global market as reasons why firms may be hesitant to invest.

ExxonMobil and ConocoPhillips, two of the biggest US oil firms, pulled out of the country in 2007 following Chavez’s seizure of their facilities, and the two companies were later awarded large payouts in international arbitration.

At a meeting with Trump at the White House on Friday, ExxonMobil Chief Executive Officer Darren Woods described Venezuela as “uninvestable” in its current state and said “significant changes” would need to occur in the country to justify returning.

As the only major US oil producer in the country at present, Chevron, which operates under special exemption from Washington’s sanctions, is widely viewed as best positioned to profit on Trump’s plans.

While there are differing views on the business case for the major oil companies in Venezuela, analysts are in agreement that one group in particular stands to gain: US refineries.

While the US currently pumps more crude than any other country due to an explosion in drilling for lighter shale oil, most of the country’s refineries were built to process heavier grades.

Nearly 70 percent of US refining capacity is designed for heavier crude, according to the American Fuel and Petrochemical Manufacturers, a relic of heavy investment made before the more recent boom in shale drilling.

“You need what is referred to as a ‘complex’ refinery with deep conversion capacities. The Gulf Coast has multiple refineries like that,” Denton Cinquegrana, chief oil analyst at Oil Price Information Service, told Al Jazeera.

“The coker units that are key were built to take advantage of heavy crude not just from Venezuela, but also places like Mexico and other South American producers.”

Shon Hiatt, director of the Zage Business of Energy Initiative at the University of Southern California, said US refineries would benefit “tremendously” from a boost in exports of Venezuelan crude.

“Many of the US refineries along the coast – Texas and Louisiana – were built and designed to process Venezuela crude,” Hiatt told Al Jazeera.

“Venezuela has a history of exporting its oil to the US due to the fact that US oil companies were the first to go in, discover, pump, process, and export Venezuelan petroleum. Hence, refineries along the coast were built to handle this type of petroleum.”

While heavy Canadian crude has displaced imports from Venezuela over the years due to sanctions, that could change if Trump has his way, Hiatt said.

Gaza City – Peace, in both the physical and mental sense, feels far away in Gaza.

A ceasefire may have officially been in place since October 10, but Israel continues to conduct occasional attacks, with more than 450 Palestinians killed in the three months since.

It is not just the attacks – daily life in Gaza is also shaped by siege and displacement, and a sense that living conditions will not improve any time soon.

Amid this exhaustion came the announcement on Wednesday by the United States of the beginning of the ceasefire’s “second phase”. This phase is about “moving from ceasefire to demilitarization, technocratic governance, and reconstruction”, said US Special Envoy Steve Witkoff in a social media post.

The new phase includes a new Palestinian technocratic administration, overseen by an international “Board of Peace”, chaired by US President Donald Trump.

But while everything may sound workable on paper, the reaction from Palestinians in Gaza – one that mixes cautious hope and deep scepticism – is shaped by their lived experience since the beginning of Israel’s genocidal war on Gaza in October 2023.

“A lot of political decisions are distant from the reality faced in Gaza… our daily life that is filled with blockades, fear, loss, tents, and a terrible humanitarian situation,” said Arwa Ashour, a freelance journalist and writer based in Gaza City. “Even when decisions are made to ease the suffering, they are obstructed by the Israeli occupation authorities.”

“People want everything back like it was before the war: schools, hospitals, travel,” Ashour said. “If the Board of Peace is going to resolve all these crises, then we welcome it. But if it’s unable to do so, then what is its benefit?”

Palestinians excluded?

Ashour explained that after two years of war and more than 18 years of governance in the Palestinian enclave by Hamas, there is a desire for change in Gaza.

“People want to be part of the process of creating the future, not only to accept the implementation of decisions that have already been made,” she said.

The governance model envisaged in the second phase of the ceasefire plan does have a Palestinian component.

Ali Shaath, a former Palestinian Authority (PA) deputy minister, will head the Palestinian technocratic committee that will manage daily life. But that committee will be overseen by the Board of Peace, to be led by Bulgaria’s former foreign and defence minister, Nickolay Mladenov.

Mladenov – who has worked as a United Nations diplomat in the Middle East – is seen as an administrator, but one who may not be capable of pushing back against Israel and representing Palestinians in Gaza.

“Decisions made without the meaningful participation of those most affected reproduce the same power structures that enabled this occupation and genocide,” Maha Hussaini, head of media and public engagement at Euro-Med Human Rights Monitor, told Al Jazeera. “Excluding Palestinians in Gaza from shaping their future strips them of agency and turns reconstruction and governance into tools of control rather than recovery.”

For Hussaini, justice after a war in which Israel has killed at least 71,400 Palestinians and destroyed vast swathes of the territory cannot be ignored.

“Peace does not mean silence after bombardment, nor a pause between wars,” she said. “For Gaza, peace means safety, dignity, and freedom from collective punishment. It also means justice: recognising the harm suffered, restoring the rights of victims, and holding perpetrators accountable. Without justice, what is called ‘peace’ becomes only a temporary arrangement that leaves the genocide intact.”

Palestinian political analyst Ahmed Fayyad said that ultimately, Palestinians have little choice but to go along with Mladenov and the Board of Peace model, even if there is a sense that they are handing over the administration of Gaza to foreigners.

“Palestinians don’t have the luxury of choice to accept or refuse Mladenov,” Fayyad said. “No one – the Palestinian Authority and the Arab [countries] – wants to disrupt the agreement.”

But Fayyad described several potential stumbling blocks, including internal Palestinian divisions between the Palestinian Authority, based in Ramallah, and its longtime rival Hamas.

The analyst also believes that the demilitarisation of Hamas – which the US and Israel insist upon, but which Hamas says is an internal Palestinian matter – will also likely cause problems.

“Israel might attach the demilitarisation to the reconstruction or the opening of [border] crossings, and investments in the education and health sectors,” Fayyad said.

“It is complicated, and it is all subject to Israeli security conditions,” he continued, adding that the formation of a new Palestinian security force that met Israel’s onerous requirements would take a long time because the process was not spelled out in Trump’s ceasefire plan.

“This will reflect negatively on the civilians who yearn for an improvement to their daily harsh reality and suffering in tents, amid outbreaks of disease and the collapse of all economic and social life,” Fayyad said.

Israeli spoiler

The announcement of the second phase of the ceasefire – a move that should have been seen as a sign of positive improvement – seems disconnected to the reality on the ground for Palestinians in Gaza.

“There is more fear than hope,” said Hussaini, from the Euro-Med Human Rights Monitor. “Not because people in Gaza lack resilience or imagination, but because experience has taught them that moments labelled as ‘turning points’ rarely translate into real protection or accountability. Hope exists, but it is fragile and constantly undermined by the absence of justice and by decisions imposed from outside.”

And the most influential outside force is Israel – the power that has bombarded Gaza not just in the last two years but in several previous wars, and controls access to Gaza, and the air and sea that surrounds it.

“I think Israel tries its best to distance Gaza from any political solutions, which would end with Palestine’s right to self-determination,” said the analyst Fayyad. “Israel wants Gaza to be a disarmed zone; its people’s biggest concerns are the daily struggles of life, without caring about any political solutions.”

“Israel doesn’t want any future political solutions for Gaza. These are the concerns of the Authority and the Palestinians. Israel doesn’t want independence in decision-making in Palestine,” he concluded.

Reality of life in Gaza

The daily struggle of life is all Sami Balousha, a 30-year-old computer programmer from Gaza City, can think about.

Balousha described peace not as a political agreement, conducted in far-off meeting rooms, but as physical safety and a routine.

“It is simply to sleep at night assured that I wake up the next morning, not dead, or I won’t get up in the middle of the night because of the sound of bombing,” Balousha said. “It is getting up the next morning and going to work, and being sure that I will be able to get home safely, not suspiciously turning around all the time, afraid of a strike.”

Balousha said that he had been displaced with his family 17 times – moving from place to place to escape Israeli attacks. The mental turmoil of the past two years means he no longer looks to the future, and instead focuses on the here and now.

“Tomorrow is far away, and I have no control over it,” Balousha said. “We can’t imagine the near future and plan it. We’ve been stuck in this loop for two years. The reality has always been strangely hard and unexpected.”

Like many others, Balousha feels disconnected from international decision-making.

“They don’t have a deep understanding of the Palestinians’ needs in Gaza. I don’t think that we are being listened to seriously,” he said.

It is why he ultimately does not have much faith in any solutions being cooked up for Gaza, and is instead fearful that his current horror will become a permanent reality.