A special sting was sparked by President Donald Trump’s assertion that the United States was “locked and loaded” if peaceful protesters were killed by Iranian forces. Less than 24 hours later, US special forces attacked Caracas, kidnapped Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro from his home, and transported him to New York to face “narcoterrorism” charges.
Trump has increased the psychological strain on the Islamic Republic by demonstrating that his administration can respond to threats in Venezuela. Abbas Araghchi, the foreign minister of Iran, described his statement as “reckless and dangerous.” The Iranian government must have received the warning, after all.
Iran is not Venezuela, though. Tehran cannot really be where it happened on Saturday in Caracas.
A robust military infrastructure
The reality of operability, which made it possible for a country to invade Venezuela, underscore why the US is hesitant to intervene in Iran.
In order to prepare for the operation, the CIA had been stationed in Caracas for the previous half-year. An associate of Maduro’s helped the intelligence agency find him. US fighter jets launched airstrikes on military targets in and around Caracas on Saturday morning. After Maduro’s abduction, a US special forces team was dispatched to his house.
The Venezuelan military was in disarray, and Maduro’s allies, Russia and China, had largely abandoned him, which contributed to the success of the operation.
Iran made it clear six months earlier that it was not a simple target for a regime change. Tehran’s weaknesses and resilience were revealed during the 12-day conflict with Israel in June.
The Islamic Republic refused to change despite Israel’s surprise attacks, which included the removal of some of Iran’s most significant leaders of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and Iranian nuclear scientists, as well as the Israeli psyop efforts that threatened to kill various officials and senior military officers without defection.
The Iranian regime was not shaken by US bombings of Iran’s underground nuclear sites. In retaliation, the Iranian military retaliated by firing hundreds of missiles into Israel’s Iron Dome and striking military targets.
The regime’s self-imposed isolation from external shocks contributes to this resilience. Regardless of its ideological underpinnings, the IRGC’s vast business empire, which includes exports, telecommunications, and construction, gives its top commanders a real personal interest in the survival of the regime.
With one million active and reserve soldiers, Iran has the largest military in the area. At least 150, 000 soldiers are currently under the command of the IRGC, many of whom have already been battle-tested in the Middle East. The Basij militia, which has hundreds of thousands of regular and reserve members, is another.
Given the vast urban areas and mountainous terrain of Iran, an invasion would not be as simple as Venezuela or even as close as Iraq.
Iran, a much more significant partner than Venezuela, is unlikely to be abandoned by the Chinese and Russians. They are most likely to provide it with highly developed information, weapons, political support, and cover.
social unrest
Iran has recently been the site of widespread demonstrations fueled by its current economic problems. However, this might not turn out to be the American and Israeli perspective it might believe it to be.
The upheaval is still not quite as bad as the 2022 upheaval. We have seen numerous fatalities in recent days, despite the regime’s excessive killings (there have been 20). For instance, there haven’t been any defections that could destabilize the corps and ultimately cause the regime to fall.
Additionally, historical data demonstrates that societies are more likely to unite after external aggression. Iranians’ refusal to accept Israeli incitement against their government was made clear in the summer.
Tehran’s authorities have acknowledged protesters’ concerns despite their repressive tactics. The government is “seeking remedy the problem,” according to Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei on Saturday, adding that the “bazaaris’ protest is legitimate.
The severe economic downturn and inflation, Iran’s nuclear disputes, and the country’s ailing leader’s poor health and succession question could cause rifts in the country.
However, these are slow-burning crises, not the vulnerabilities that drove the Venezuela operation. Due to its strong institutional frameworks, which can withstand painful situations, the Iranian government has been able to endure decades of sanctions, conflicts, and internal upheavals.
Therefore, Venezuela’s intervention serves as a more representative illustration of the US’s upper hand than as a case study of what can be done in a different country, like Iran. Trump has the power to detain and remove individual leaders whose states, like Venezuela, are already empty shells. However, he and his generals are unable to exert control over and transformation in a complex nation like Iran. In the region, which is much more intense and lasting than Iraq, any such project undoubtedly would cause chaos and bloodshed.
