Iraq votes amid shifting power balance

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Iraq is heading to the polls amid deep divisions among its Shia political elite and shifting regional power dynamics. Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani is caught between Iran, the US, and the Gulf, as the powerful Sadrist movement boycotts the election, reshaping turnout and coalition-building.

Speaker Johnson says House will return to Washington for shutdown deal vote

US House Speaker Mike Johnson said the House of Representatives will vote “as soon as possible” after a Senate vote on Sunday opened the door to the federal government reopening.

Johnson told reporters that he will give his House colleagues 36 hours’ notice pending a final vote from the Senate and added that members should start returning to Washington “right now”.

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“We applaud seven Senate Democrats and one independent senator who did the right thing,” Johnson said of the 60-40 vote on Sunday night that could be the first step to the end of the longest government shutdown in United States history.

Among the Democrats who voted with their Republican counterparts are Senators Dick Durbin of Illinois, Jacky Rosen of Nevada, Tim Kaine of Virginia, and Maggie Hassan and Jeanne Shaheen from New Hampshire. They joined Angus King, an independent senator from Maine, as well as two other Democrats who had already defected from other Democrats: Catherine Cortez Masto of Nevada and John Fetterman of Pennsylvania.

The legislation provides funding to reopen the government and finance programmes including US Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) food aid. It also ensures back pay for furloughed federal workers whose fate had been left in doubt.

Included is funding to keep much of the federal government running for the next couple of months, to January 30, with a stopgap measure. The legislation largely funds government operations at their current rates.

But notably lacking is any clear resolution to expiring healthcare subsidies that Democrats have been fighting for as millions of Americans stare down rising insurance premiums. That debate was pushed off for a vote next month, weeks before the subsidies are set to expire, but some experts are concerned that Democrats will not deliver.

“Democrats capitulating in a fight to lower costs will reverse all the brand gains they have made over the last few months,” Lindsay Owens, executive director of the economic think tank the Groundwork Collaborative, said in a statement provided to Al Jazeera. “If they can’t do this, voters will be even more cynical. Two parties talk about affordability, but neither will fight to deliver it.”

If healthcare subsidies do expire, average premium costs would more than double for Americans who get their insurance through the Affordable Care Act (ACA) Marketplace, according to a Kaiser Family Foundation analysis from September.

Democratic leader Hakeem Jeffries vowed to continue to push to extend ACA subsidies.

“This is not a partisan fight for us. This is a patriotic fight,” Jeffries told reporters at a press conference.

He pointed out that more registered Republicans rely on the tax credits than registered Democrats or those who are unaffiliated with either major political party.

“In all likelihood, part of this deal is that the Democrats are going to be able to put forward the bill themselves in December for a vote so they will control the narrative of the bill and the vote,” Republican strategist Adolfo Franco told Al Jazeera.

Franco also added that because there are Republicans in favour of extending the subsidies, it is likely to pass.

Air travel in flux 

But despite progress towards reopening the government, havoc is still hitting the nation’s airports.

Airlines on Monday cancelled more than 1,000 US flights for a fourth consecutive day as government flight cuts and air traffic staffing absences continue creating issues with aviation.

“The problem we have with air travel is that our air traffic controllers are overworked and unpaid and many of them have called in sick. That’s a very stressful job and even more stressful exponentially when they’re having trouble providing for their families,” Speaker Johnson told reporters on Monday.

US President Donald Trump is pressuring air traffic controllers to return to work.

On Monday, Trump said he would dock pay for air traffic controllers who do not return and would concurrently give a $10,000 bonus to those who stayed on the job through the shutdown.

On Wall Street, markets are trending high on news that the government shutdown may be coming to a close. As of 11am in New York (16:00 GMT) the Nasdaq is up 1.7 percent, S&P 500 is up 0.8 percent. The Dow Jones Industrial Average, on the other hand, remains relatively flat, and is up by only 0.04 percent.

Israeli drone strike kills two in Gaza as ceasefire violations mount

At least two people including a child have been killed in an Israeli drone strike east of Khan Younis in southern Gaza, according to Al Jazeera reporters in the besieged Palestinian territory.

Hamas condemned Israel’s “daily and continuous violations” since a truce came into effect last month, accusing it of maintaining a campaign of bombardments and demolitions across the besieged enclave.

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In a statement published on Telegram on Monday, the group said Israeli attacks had killed 271 people, over 90 percent of them civilians, and wounded 622 more since the ceasefire took effect on October 10.

The Israeli military said the Palestinians killed on Monday posed “an immediate threat” to its forces.

Israeli forces have also been systematically destroying homes inside the so-called “yellow line”, a temporary withdrawal boundary agreed in the ceasefire.

Al Jazeera’s correspondents on the ground have said demolition operations in eastern Khan Younis have intensified. “Every two-storey building or house is being targeted,” said Hamdan Radwan, mayor of Bani Suheila, the largest municipality in the area.

Al Jazeera correspondents have confirmed Israeli forces are blowing up residential blocks in central Gaza as well. Satellite images and field footage show large swathes of neighbourhoods reduced to rubble.

Palestinians walk around their tents in Gaza City on November 3, 2025, during a ceasefire in the two-year-long Israeli war on Gaza [File: Omar Al-Qattaa/AFP]

Israel continues to restrict aid deliveries

Israel also continues to restrict aid deliveries to Gaza, violating one of the key terms of the ceasefire. Hamas said Israel had refused to allow at least 600 aid trucks daily, including 50 carrying fuel, despite the agreement.

On Sunday, only 270 trucks entered Gaza through the Karem Abu Salem (known in Israel as Kerem Shalom) and al-Karara (Kissufuim) crossings.

According to Al Jazeera’s reporters, the deliveries included 126 trucks of humanitarian aid, 127 carrying commercial goods, 10 with fuel and seven transporting cooking gas.

While aid flow has increased since the ceasefire began, Palestinians across Gaza continue to suffer from extreme shortages of food, medicine, clean water and essential goods.

Many remain homeless, with entire neighbourhoods destroyed by nearly two years of relentless Israeli bombardment.

The United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees (UNRWA) says between 500 and 600 trucks of supplies are needed daily to meet Gaza’s most basic needs. But Israel’s restrictions have left the agency struggling to deliver aid.

John Whyte, UNRWA’s senior deputy director for Gaza operations, told Irish news outlet The Journal that Israel has barred the agency’s vehicles from entering altogether.

“They just won’t let anything that’s owned by UNRWA go in,” Whyte said. “They’re requiring us to hand our supplies to other agencies and remove the UNRWA logo before they can cross. It’s creating enormous logistical delays.”

Israel outlawed UNRWA last year, with the ban taking effect in January, cutting off a critical lifeline for Gaza’s displaced population.

Reporting from Deir el-Balah, Al Jazeera’s Hind Khoudary noted that Palestinians were promised 600 trucks of aid daily as part of the ceasefire. “We’ve been monitoring the situation, and the majority of trucks entering are non-essential commercial ones,” she said. “According to the UN and Reuters, only around 200 trucks of humanitarian aid are entering each day.”

Khoudary added that in northern Gaza, where many displaced families are returning, the UN has reported no direct aid entry for 75 days. “People told us they go to bed hungry. They queue for hours for water and can’t afford meat or eggs,” she said.

Israel hands over Palestinian bodies

As part of the ceasefire’s body exchange arrangement, Israel on Monday handed over the remains of 15 Palestinians to authorities in Gaza. A medical source told Wafa news agency that the Red Cross transferred the bodies to Nasser Hospital in Khan Younis.

It was the 12th such exchange under the deal, bringing the total number of bodies returned to 315. Only 89 have been identified so far due to decomposition and a lack of proper equipment in Gaza. Wafa reported that most of the recovered bodies showed signs of torture.

Hamas said it had fulfilled its obligations under the agreement, handing over 20 living captives within 72 hours “despite extremely difficult field conditions”. It said it had retrieved 24 of 28 bodies and shared coordinates for others located in areas under Israeli control.

Meanwhile, the World Health Organization (WHO) announced that al-Kheir Hospital in Khan Younis has resumed operations after months of closure due to Israeli attacks. The WHO said it helped rehabilitate the facility by restoring power, sanitation and water systems, and providing medical equipment.

Iraq parliamentary elections: What we know

On Tuesday, Iraqis from across the country will head to the polls to elect a new parliament.

Analysts and observers believe the voter turnout will indicate whether Iraqis have any confidence left in the current political system to provide security and improve basic services.

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Both issues have plagued Iraqis since the United States invaded in 2003 to topple then-President Saddam Hussein, an invasion that ruptured Iraq’s social fabric and prompted a rebellion against the US occupation.

What’s more, the occupation triggered fighting between Shia and Sunni militias from 2006 to 2008 and between Iraqi government forces and ISIL (ISIS) from 2013 to 2017.

Since the first elected government in 2005, Iraqis have grown disillusioned with their governments’ failure to improve the lives of citizens and the predominance of unchanging faces heading militarised parties. Yet many will still head to the polls.

Here’s all you need to know about the parliamentary elections:

How does it all work?

Well, voters will select 329 members of parliament.

Of this number, at least 25 percent – 83 seats – will go to women.

Early voting for Iraq’s security personnel and its 26,000 displaced people took place on Sunday.

For the rest of the population, polls will open at 7am (04:00 GMT) on Tuesday and close at 6pm (15:00 GMT).

They will cast their ballots at polling stations across 18 of Iraq’s 19 provinces. The recently created province of Halabja will be included with Sulaimaniya in the vote.

How many people are running?

There are 7,744 candidates running, most affiliated with sectarian political parties and blocs – a direct outcome of the “muhasasa” (quota) system ushered in after the US invasion.

Muhasasa was an attempt to bring about proportional representation among Iraq’s diverse ethnic and religious communities.

According to the system, the speaker of parliament will always be a Sunni, the prime minister a Shia and the president a Kurd.

Interactive Iraq elections

Who are the major players?

This election will see a powerful Shia bloc headed by former Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki run in the elections as well as a coalition headed by the current leader, Mohammed Shia al-Sudani.

The latter is aiming to secure a second term as prime minister, yet analysts believe his chances are slim due to deep divisions within the Shia Coordination Framework (SCF), which is the principal Shia political bloc.

The SCF was formed in 2021 and appointed al-Sudani as prime minister in 2022.

Meanwhile, the main Sunni political force running in the elections is the Taqaddum (Progress) Party, headed by parliamentary Speaker Mohamed al-Halbousi. His party’s supporters mainly hail from Sunni heartlands in the west and north of the country.

The major Kurdish parties competing in the elections are the Kurdistan Democratic Party, which is trying to secure larger shares of oil reserves to boost the budget in the semiautonomous Kurdish region of Iraq.

The rival Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK), which favours closer relations with the government in Baghdad, will also be competing for seats and influence.

Anyone boycotting?

Powerful Shia cleric Moqtada al-Sadr has urged his followers to boycott the elections.

Al-Sadr commands a large following in southern and central Iraq, which he can easily mobilise onto the streets, according to analysts.

Al Jazeera previously reported that al-Sadr boycotted the elections to protest the muhasasa system, which he reportedly wants to replace with a government formed by the blocs that win a majority in elections.

Critics fear that abandoning proportional representation along sectarian lines could eventually pave the way for a new dictatorship.

Nevertheless, the refusal of Sadrists to participate in the elections could damage the legitimacy of the next government, Tamer Badawi, an Iraq expert with the Royal United Services Institute, told the Atlantic Council.

He added that any crisis of confidence in the next government could hurt its ability to provide adequate services.

Interactive Iraq elections
Interactive Iraq elections

How many people will vote?

Probably not as many as in previous elections.

Only 21.4 million out of a total of 32 million eligible voters have signed up from 19 provinces to partake in the elections, down from four years ago when 24 million people registered.

Many observers and analysts believe voter turnout on Tuesday could dip below 2021’s 41 percent, the lowest turnout on record.

The lack of participation in Iraq’s elections has been attributed to growing disenfranchisement among Iraqi youth over the muhasasa system, which many perceive as enabling corruption and injustice.

What’s at stake?

Al-Sudani is pursuing a second term as prime minister, and his bloc is positioned to win the most seats, yet he may still fail at securing the backing of major Shia parties to retain his post.

Al-Sudani’s first term saw him under increasing US pressure to crack down on the Popular Mobilisation Forces (PMF), or Hashd al-Shaabi, a quasi-state paramilitary group that fought and defeated ISIL in 2017 and that the US views as aligned with Iran, which has been influential in Iraq since the US invasion.

Al-Sudani has promised to integrate PMF units into the government and fully submit them to the chain of command of the Iraqi army and other conventional security forces.

This has been an increasingly delicate task since PMF groups have accrued their own power by entrenching themselves in the economy and creating political parties prominent in the SCF, power that could enable them to win significant seats and compete for major posts in the next government.