Only two days after the president of Lebanon announced that Israel had begun a pressure campaign against Beirut and agreed to hold talks, Israel launched an attack on the southern suburbs of Beirut.
In an alleged attack on Haytham Ali Tabatabai, Hezbollah’s chief of staff, in the city’s Haret Hreik neighborhood, Israel on Sunday killed five people and injured 28 others, according to Lebanon’s Ministry of Health.
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Hezbollah is being allegedly regrouping and rearming, according to Israeli officials and the media, who have been warning of a recent escalation against Lebanon. Israel’s government has also been under pressure from its main supporter, the United States, as both nations urge Lebanon to act more quickly to disarm Hezbollah and arrange direct meetings with Israeli leaders.
Israel “has the upper hand,” according to the statement.
Even though the country’s leaders were opposed to indirect negotiations with Israel, the country’s leadership had pushed for them. President Joseph Aoun of Lebanon addressed the issue just two days before Israel launched an attack on the suburb of Beirut.
Any agreement that would put a framework in place for a permanent end to transnational aggressions, according to Aoun from Tyr, a southern city that suffered significant damage last year, is open to negotiation with the Lebanese state under the UN, US, or joint international sponsorship.
Aoun did not specify in detail whether or not the discussions would be direct. However, analysts claimed that Israel’s recent rise in attacks suggests it is not looking to negotiate.
According to Nicholas Blanford, a nonresident senior fellow with the Atlantic Council, Israel “has the upper hand militarily at the moment, and they don’t seem to be interested in negotiating in earnest.”
“Lebanon is doing everything they can under the circumstances, but I don’t think they have a willing interlocutor in the Israelis at this point,” they said. “They’re quite happy sniping away at Hezbollah on a daily basis.
Israel has recently increased its attacks in the south of Lebanon and the Bekaa Valley despite a feigned ceasefire. Israel’s attack on Lebanon’s largest Palestinian refugee camp last week left at least 13 people dead, making it the highest death toll in a single strike since a ceasefire was reached in November of last year. Mostly children were killed in the attack.
Approximately 127 civilians have been killed by Israel in Lebanon since then, according to the UN. Despite the ceasefire, which stated Israel would withdraw its troops from Lebanese territory, it continues to occupy at least five locations in south Lebanon.
Israel’s lack of interest in negotiations is the root of the issue. According to Kassem Kassir, a Lebanese journalist close to Hezbollah, it wants to oust the organization or provoke a clash with the Lebanese army.
Israel “escalates its aggression” whenever Aoun or Prime Minister Nawaf Salam discuss a possible agreement.
Israel “should exhibit good faith,” according to the statement.
If Tabatabai’s assassination is confirmed, it will be the highest-ranking Hezbollah target to be killed since the ceasefire, and Sunday’s attack is the first in southern Beirut’s suburbs in a few months. The attack comes a week before Pope Leo XIV’s scheduled visit to Lebanon, which also comes on a day after the country’s muted celebration of its 82nd independence day.
Lebanon has been warned by US and Israeli officials that if it does not disarm Hezbollah sooner, it will intensify. A plan to have Hezbollah’s weapons brought under the control of the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) was approved by Lebanon’s cabinet in August. The organization claims that the move benefits Israel, and that Hezbollah has renounced its weapons.
Some US officials have criticized the Lebanese army for disarming Hezbollah too slowly, despite this. According to analysts, the Lebanese government has also been criticized for failing to reach a political consensus on the contentious subject.
However, analysts claim that Israel’s actions are putting strain on the efforts of the Lebanese government. US Special Envoy Tom Barrack traveled to Israel to try to get its military to stop attacks and remove troops from the Lebanese territory after the cabinet’s plan to disarm Hezbollah was approved. He returned empty-handed.
Rodolphe Haykal, the head of Lebanon’s army, recently announced that the US had canceled a trip to Washington, DC following the LAF’s statement criticizing Israel. Prior to that time, Haykal had suggested that LAF operations would be stopped until Israel stops its attacks.
Israel should show good faith if it actively wants to enter and succeeds in negotiations, and the best way to do that would be to at least lessen attacks on Lebanese territory or to withdraw from some areas in the south. According to David Wood, the senior analyst for Lebanon for the International Crisis Group, “they could create a positive dynamic to create a consensus.”
Before Hezbollah, options
Hezbollah has only responded to Israeli attacks once since the ceasefire in November last year. The organization has largely displayed restraint under the leadership of its new Secretary-General, Naim Qassem.
Still, the group’s potential change of tactics is a concern in Lebanon.
According to Blanford, “there is definitely a mood to rebel against the Israelis,” not just from the attack of today but in general. No one in Lebanon will be thankful to Hezbollah for doing that, according to them, but they are well aware that if they do, the Israelis will escalate.
Hezbollah and the Lebanese state have few options because of Israel’s military superiority and US support. The Lebanonian government’s ongoing discussions over disarmament between Israel and Hezbollah are contentious.
Despite the government’s stated desire to engage in indirect negotiations, similar to Israel and Lebanon’s maritime agreement from 2022, many people in the nation vehemently oppose direct negotiations, according to analysts.
Many Lebanoneers, including those who support Hezbollah, claim they are open to seeing Israel leave southern Lebanon and establish a border wall. Few people approve of a freshening aggression, which suggests diplomacy is a preferred method.
However, according to analysts, doing so would require Israel to adhere to all agreements it enters, including the numerous ceasefire agreements it has repeatedly broken.
