Elections in parts of Myanmar are scheduled for Sunday, nearly five years after Nobel Laureate Aung San Suu Kyi’s government was overthrown, and critics claim that the country’s generals are trying to legitimize military rule.
In the middle of a raging civil war that has spanned the borderlands of Bangladesh and India in the west, across the central plains, to the frontiers of China and Thailand in the north and east, ethnic armed groups and opposition militias are fighting the military for control of sizable stretches of territory.
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Only a third of the region’s townships will have Sunday voting if it is held in central Sagaing. In addition, voting will be completely canceled in the remainder of the second and third phases in January.
In a number of areas, fighting has gotten worse, including air raids and arson.
According to Esther J., a journalist based there, “the military is deploying troops and burning villages.” “People here claim that this is being done for the election.”
We haven’t seen a single activity related to the election in the majority of the area, she said. No one is organizing, campaigning, or educating voters.
Voting is suspended across Myanmar’s 330 townships, with more expected cancellations expected. Monitoring organizations and the UN estimate that 90, 000 people have been killed and more than 3 million have been displaced by the conflict, which was triggered by the coup in 2021. Nearly half of the country’s 55 million people in need of humanitarian aid are a result of this.
“People in Sagaing] claim to be undecided, ” said Esther J. They oppose the military, they claim. They want the victory of the revolutionary forces.
shifting the battlefield
The Myanmar military appeared to be losing ground for a large portion of the year.
A coalition of ethnic armed groups and opposition militias launched a coordinated offensive in late 2023 that nearly pushed the military out of western Rakhine state and seized Lashio, a significant regional military headquarters, about 120 kilometers (75 miles) from the Chinese border. The rebels were soon threatening Mandalay, the second-largest city in the nation, with commercial drones that had been modified to carry bombs.
The military faced the most significant threat to it since the coup of 2021, which was dubbed the operation 1027.
However, China’s intervention has slowed the momentum this year.
Without firing a single shot, the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army agreed to surrender Lashio in a deal reached by Beijing in April. Nawnghkio, Thabeikkyin, Kyaukme, and Hsipaw are among the key towns in north and central Myanmar that the military later reclaimed. The Ta’ang National Liberation Army’s withdrawal from Mogok and Momeik, two other gold-mining towns, was reached through China’s mediation in late October.
Morgan Michaels, a research fellow at the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS), called the Myanmar military “absolutely resurgent.” The Myanmar military might be back in a relatively dominant position in a year or two if this trend persists.
The military turned the tables by initiating a conscription drive, expanding its drone arsenal, and appointing more combat-ready soldiers. According to researchers, it has recruited between 70 and 80 000 people since enlisting in military service in February 2024.
The Myanmar Institute for Peace and Security’s executive director, Min Zaw Oo, described the conscription drive as “unexpectedly effective.” Many of the recruits were technically competent and employed as snipers and drone operators, he claimed, adding that “economic hardship and political polarization pushed many young men into the ranks.” He continued, “The military’s drone units now outnumber those of the opposition.”
Air and drone attacks by the military have increased by about 30% this year, according to the Armed Conflict Location &, Event Data Project (ACLED), a monitoring organization. The group claimed 1, 971 people died in 2, 602 air attacks, the highest number since the coup since the coup. According to the report, Myanmar is now the third-largest drone operator worldwide, trailing only Russia and Ukraine.
China has, in contrast, pressed harder than just to broker ceasefires.
According to analysts, Beijing pressured the United Wa State Army, one of the nation’s most powerful armed ethnic groups, to stop providing weapons to other rebels, leading to ammunition shortages nationwide. Disunity also exists among the opposition forces. They are still as disjointed as they were, according to IISS member Michaels. He said, referring to the opposition militias that mobilized following the coup, “the ethnic armed organizations are abandoning the People’s Defence Forces,” as relations between these groups are deteriorating.
China’s calculations
According to observers, China reportedly acted out of concern for a Myanmar state collapse.
According to Einar Tangen, a Beijing-based analyst at the Center for International Governance Innovation, “the situation in Myanmar is a hot mess,” and it’s on China’s border. He claimed that Beijing wants to see Myanmar’s peace in order to safeguard important trade routes, including the China-Myanmar Economic Corridor, which will connect Yunnan province’s landlocked region to the Indian Ocean and its deep seaport there.
Tangen claimed that Beijing sees few options but does not love the military.
In fact, Beijing resisted resuming talks with Myanmar or acknowledging Min Aung Hlaing, the coup’s leader. However, Xi Jinping, the president of China, met Min Aung Hlaing twice this year in a show of change. During discussions in Tianjin, China’s Xi told Min Aung Hlaing that it supports Myanmar in “unifying all domestic political forces” and “restoring stability and development” during the talks in August.
Tangen claimed that China views the election as a step toward more predictable government. Although the UN and a number of Western countries have called the process a “sham,” Russia and India have also supported it. Tangen noted that while Western countries have criticized the military, they have not engaged with the rebels. By limiting access to foreign aid and removing Myanmar citizens’ visa protections, the United States has suffered even more losses.
The humanitarian crisis is being addressed only superficially by the West. Tangen remarked that China is attempting to do something but is unsure of how to proceed.
Limited gains, enduring war
While the military continues to expand its territory, it is only marginal.
According to the Institute for Strategy and Policy – Myanmar, the military only regained 11.3 percent of the territory in the country’s largest state, northern Shan. Western Rakhine State is still the “larger and more intense theater of war,” according to analyst Khin Zaw Win from Yangon.
In a move that threatens the military’s defense industries, the Arakan Army is pushing east, overrunning several bases, and pushing beyond the state’s borders. The battle for Bhamo, a gateway to the north, is about to end, he said, while armed groups are taking “number of important positions along the border with Thailand” in the southeast.
Therefore, he continued, “the military’s recent gains in other areas were not that significant.”
The military’s successes were also “limited in the context of the overall conflict,” according to ACLED, the war monitor. According to Su Mon, a senior analyst at ACLED, the military is still “weakened in a position compared to before the 2021 coup and Operation 1027, and is unable to assert effective control over the areas it has recently retaken” in a briefing this month.
The military now has more confidence to conduct the elections, according to Khin Zaw Win, adding that the gains are still positive.
The most candidates are expected to form the next government, which is supported by the military-backed Union Solidarity and Development Party. She is still held incommunicado, while other smaller opposition parties are prohibited from participating because Aung San Suu Kyi’s National League for Democracy has been disbanded.
Khin Zaw Win stated that he does not anticipate the election to “affect the war in any significant way” and that the military might even be “deluded to go for a complete military victory.”
China, he claimed, could assist in de-escalation.
He noted that “China’s mediation efforts are geared toward a negotiated settlement.” It anticipates a “payoff” and does not want a drawn-out conflict that would harm its larger interests.
