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Autumn Nations Series: Wales v New Zealand

Venue: Principality Stadium, Cardiff Date: Saturday, 22 November Kick-off: 15:10 GMT

New Zealand have won as many Tests on their autumn tour as Wales have since the 2023 World Cup, yet the All Blacks are the ones under pressure this weekend.

Head coach Scott Robertson has been criticised after his side suffered a 33-19 defeat by England that ended their hopes of a Great Britain and Ireland Grand Slam tour, as it is regarded in New Zealand.

The All Blacks are second in the world rankings, were pipped to the Rugby Championship title by South Africa on points difference and won against Ireland and Scotland before defeat at Allianz Stadium.

However, they are struggling to meet great expectations and a third loss of 2025 leaves them not only needing to beat Wales – but to do so comprehensively and with style.

Wales have nothing to lose on Saturday afternoon, while the All Blacks appear to have nothing to gain.

At the All Blacks’ Cardiff Bay hotel, a journalist from New Zealand asked Robertson about the pressure on his team and how he was trying to lift spirits.

“You are really talking this up,” replied the head coach with a smile. “You’re quite dramatic, aren’t you?

“We focus on what we could have done better last week and get on with it. There was some really good stuff in there and you look at that.

If Robertson is under pressure now in one of sport’s most intense jobs then a first defeat by Wales since 1953 would have the knives out.

That is unlikely given Steve Tandy’s side needed a last-gasp kick to beat Japan 24-23 and end a 10-Test losing streak in Cardiff.

Wales, ranked 12th in the world, have conceded 50-plus points to both England and Argentina at Principality Stadium this year.

Home expectations are extremely low – a plucky loss would be toasted as progress – but Robertson is wary of a side that, unlike his own, will play without pressure.

“One thing about the Welsh is that you put them under a roof, they sing the anthem and will dig deep,” he said. “Put a black jersey against them and they will find their best.

The All Blacks ring the changes from the side that faced England with captain and lock Scott Barrett and blind-side flanker Simon Parker the only survivors in the XV.

Six players are poised for their first action of the tour and only one man, injured prop Tevita Mafileo, will not feature in any games.

Big names will watch on from the sidelines at the home of Welsh rugby.

“The ones that have been given the opportunity have trained extremely hard and been really focused,” said Robertson.

Robertson knows from experience that his side cannot kick loosely to Wales full-back Blair Murray, who will win his 13th cap.

The 24-year-old is under the microscope for his aerial ability, but remains a serious threat with ball in hand – and one the All Blacks boss saw when in charge of Crusaders.

Murray came through the ranks at Canterbury and was part of the Super Rugby club’s wider squad.

He moved to Scarlets in 2023 and, courtesy of his mother from Tonyrefail, enjoyed a rapid rise to Test rugby.

“He’s the definition of a pocket rocket – he’s 5ft 7in and can bounce, spin and hit,” said Robertson. “He’s physically tough, and is mentally a tough kid too.

With Northern Ireland two games away from reaching the 2026 World Cup, manager Michael O’Neill has told his players not to “waste this opportunity”.

It’s certainly not a straightforward path to North America as they travel to Italy for their play-off semi-final on 26 March.

Should they upset the Azzurri, Northern Ireland will travel to either Wales or Bosnia-Herzegovina five days later for a winner-takes-all final.

Italy have not qualified for a World Cup since the 2014 edition in Brazil, with Northern Ireland absent from the big dance since 1986 when it was last held in Mexico – one of the three host nations next year alongside Canada and the USA.

Although O’Neill’s side has a young age profile, he has no doubt they can rise to the play-off challenge. Despite away defeats by Germany and Slovakia in the group phase, he also feels his side showed enough on the road to suggest they can spring the surprise.

“It’s difficult to win away in international football and that is something this team still has to develop, but I take a lot of encouragement from the performances in Cologne and Slovakia where we were challenged and were missing key players in those games”, he said.

“We still gave a really good account of ourselves and were in the game in Germany for 70, 75 minutes. We were in the game in Slovakia right to the end and felt a little big aggrieved by the nature of that result.

” We have to make the game as difficult as possible for Italy and it will be difficult for them with the expectation they carry into the game.

While Northern Ireland finished third in the qualification group behind Germany and Slovakia, their Nations League performance was enough to secure a play-off berth.

However, Italy have not exactly been riding the crest of a wave of late with Gennaro Gattuso’s men finishing second in their group behind Norway, suffering a 3-0 away loss and 4-1 home hammering in their final group game.

“I suppose we would have preferred one of the other teams in Pot One, but to get to the World Cup, you’re going to have to beat two good teams”, added O’Neill.

“Italy away is going to be a massive game, a great game for us to be involved in. The expectation and pressure is very much on the Italians, so we will need to use that in our favour.

” I know they’ve lost home and away to Norway and the bulk of their squad is based in Serie A. Gattuso is their manager, so you will expect them not to be lacking in passion.

“We have four months to prepare for this and look at Italy in close detail, so the work will start today and tomorrow”.

That Italy could miss out on a third straight World Cup almost defies belief, considering they have won the competition four times in their history.

However, their failure to reach the 2018 tournament in Russia and Qatar 2022 both came as a result of play-off defeats.

That may give Northern Ireland hope, but O’Neill insisted his team must get their own house in order for their semi-final tie.

“The Italian team of now is not going to be the Italian team of eight years ago”, he countered.

“Not all their players are going to carry the burden of having been unsuccessful in play-off games. As a nation, they carry that burden, and the expectation of their crowd will be that they go to a World Cup.