Category News

In the eyes of some observers, peace has still come too soon for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu despite the staggering death toll and human suffering Israel has caused Gaza over the past two years.

The Israeli leader has been accused of using the war to divert attention away from his position and even his freedom. None of those issues have been resolved because of the current ceasefire in Gaza.

Even former Israeli ambassador Alon Pinkas, who was pressured into the White House over the growing financial and diplomatic costs of the Israeli conflict, sees the ceasefire as being stage-managed and forced upon him.

What issues does Netanyahu face before the upcoming Israeli elections and beyond, and how dangerous are they if he can’t find a second war?

Let’s examine this more closely.

Will the Israeli prime minister face isolation from other countries?

Netanyahu has become the face of Israel’s isolation on a global scale for many.

More than 67, 000 Palestinians were killed by Israel in the past two years, and Gaza is where it is now in the midst of a famine. The increased coverage of what his government has done to the enclave is likely to cement Israel’s pariah status for the time being until Netanyahu’s government can permanently ban international journalists from reaching Gaza.

Israel’s growing isolation has been apparent for months, and in September, Netanyahu appeared to be setting the stage for it to continue. In a reference to the martial ancient Greek state, Netanyahu depicted his vision for a future “Super Sparta” as a form of economic and diplomatic isolation and persistent conflict.

It wasn’t very well received. The shekel sank almost immediately in comparison to other currencies, and the Israeli stock exchange plummeted. We are not Sparta, according to the 200-strong Israel Business Forum, which stands for 200 of the country’s largest businesses.

Could Netanyahu’s coalition be scuttled by the right?

Netanyahu is already taking steps to prevent it, but it might.

Netanyahu has heavily relied on the support of Israel’s far right throughout the conflict and the earlier public disputes over the judiciary’s independence.

Italel Smotrich, the country’s finance minister, and Itamar Ben-Gvir, the country’s top security official, have both expressed opposition to the ceasefire while governing the country’s coalition, for the time being.

In the hope that this will lead to the return of ultra-Orthodox parties in the parliament and help his government survive in the event of any defections, Netanyahu is reported to be proposing legislation to exempt ultra-Orthodox yeshiva students from the draft.

Netanyahu and Israel could still be found guilty by the International Criminal Court (ICC) and the International Court of Justice (ICJ)?

They could .

Israeli Prime Minister Yoav Gallant, former defense minister, and Hamas’s military commander Mohammed Deif, who Israel has since killed, were all the subjects of an international arrest warrant issued by the ICC in November 2024 for war crimes.

Many people are certain that Netanyahu will be held accountable for the genocide against Israel if a guilty verdict is handed down.

A verdict in the ICC case against Gallant and Netanyahu is not anticipated until the end of 2027, at the very least. The ICC may impose a 30-year prison sentence if found guilty, while the ICJ would typically send the guilty verdict to the UN Security Council for review.

Trump might choose Netanyahu over him.

It is a real possibility.

In the face of hostility from other countries, the US is currently Israel’s primary economic and military sponsor as well as its diplomatic bulwark. Without it, Netanyahu and Israel would be in serious trouble.

Whatever Netanyahu might say, there are bounds to the support of US President Donald Trump. When Netanyahu became one of the first leaders to congratulate former US President Joe Biden on his victory in the 2021 election, Trump reportedly expressed anger.

In May, he is said to have stopped speaking with the Israeli prime minister over concerns that Netanyahu was attempting to manipulate him.

During a recent alleged uproar over Israel’s alleged assault on Hamas negotiators in Doha in September, Trump reportedly said, “He’s screwing me.”

Trump has described how he “had it out” with Netanyahu and how he wouldn’t allow Israel to redeploy to Gaza until “I say the word” when describing the process of the ceasefire.

Trump later described the ceasefire as having been in place for 3, 000 years, telling his audience, “And it’s going to hold up, too” as he formally inaugurated it at the Israeli parliament.

He’s unlikely to enjoy being gambled away well.

Will Israel conduct an investigation into Netanyahu’s misdeeds ahead of the September 7 attack?

It appears to be getting more and more likely.

Separate investigations into the army’s and intelligence service’s failures in the months leading up to the Hamas-led attack on October 7, 2023, which claimed 1, 139 lives and about 250 were abducted, revealed flagrant errors and confusion in Israel’s security services as they struggled to deal with an assault they had not anticipated.

Following each inquiry, both the intelligence and army made their resignations.

Netanyahu did not object to those inquiries, but he has resisted one into the role of his own government, arguing that it would be politically biased and impossible to carry out in a wartime.

However, Israel’s High Court unanimously decided there was no longer “any real argument” to delay it, giving the government 30 days to respond.

Netanyahu might spend some time behind bars.

The Israeli prime minister’s option for jail time is still a possibility.

Trump almost made up his mind about Netanyahu’s corruption trial on Monday and Israel’s protracted war in Gaza.

Trump demanded that Israeli President Isaac Herzog pardon Netanyahu for what he characterized as “cigars and champagne” during his address to the Israeli parliament.

In reality, Netanyahu has been tried in three corruption cases throughout the war, all of which have continued despite lengthy delays.

Vladimir Putin, the president of Russia, will travel to Hungary in the near future to meet with Donald Trump, the US’s ambassador, for a second summit on ending the Ukrainian conflict. The first, which occurred in Alaska in August, failed to lead to any agreement.

How will the fugitive from justice make it to the bargaining table given that a 2023 International Criminal Court (ICC) warrant was issued for Putin’s arrest over the alleged illegal deportation of Ukrainian children during Russia’s conflict with Ukraine?

The Hague-based court established by the 1998 Rome Statute in 2002 must detain those who are subject to warrants as soon as they enter their country, which theoretically includes airspace, which is also regarded as sovereign territory under international law.

Countries would be bound by the agreement, including Hungary, which recently announced its intention to leave. This would make it a safe haven for Putin.

However, the ICC, which has 125 member states, has no means of imposing arrests.

What awaits Putin on his upcoming travels, then?

Isn’t Hungary a member of the ICC as well?

On paper, the answer is yes. However, it is leaving.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu visited the country in April when right-wing populist Prime Minister Viktor Orban announced the country would abandon the ICC’s founding document. In addition to his arrest warrant, which was issued earlier this year, Netanyahu is also listed as one of the most wanted by the ICC for his involvement in the war crimes committed in Gaza.

The withdrawal process begins one year after the United Nations Secretary-General receives a written notification of the decision after the Hungarian parliament approved a bill back in May.

Putin appears safe from arrest on Hungarian soil given Peter Szijjarto’s comments on the “sovereign” nation’s intentions to host the president with “respect” and ensure he has “successful negotiations, and then returns home” on Friday.

How about the atmosphere? He might be intercepted in midair, right?

“Many questions must be solved before Putin embarks on his journey,” according to Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov on Friday. The president’s flight path is likely to be the subject of one of those inquiries.

Following recent Russian jet infiltrations of Estonia’s airspace, which has put the region on high alert for a potential overspill from the Ukraine war, Putin will likely want to stay away from the Baltic states. A hard landing could be made by the Baltics.

Poland, which has historically had strained relations with the Kremlin, and which is friendly Belarus might offer a convenient corridor between the Baltics and Ukraine further south. This would set the president on course for this and warn Europe of a “deep” Russian strike on its territory. Recently, Russian drones have also entered Polish airspace.

Russia’s populist Robert Fico, who is in charge of Slovakia, continues to guzzle Russian energy in defiance of Trump’s orders to stop imports of oil and gas, and may be more accommodating. In fact, Fico and other EU members are engaged in conflict due to sanctions against Moscow. However, before reaching Slovakia, Putin would need to cross Poland first.

Therefore, Putin’s direct route to Budapest appears to be riddled with obstacles.

What about a route that is more congested?

Netanyahu, a fellow ICC fugitive wanted for crimes including using starvation as a weapon of war against Palestinian civilians in Gaza, who traveled to several European nations last month to attend the UN General Assembly (UNGA) in New York. Putin may have inspired him.

According to FlightRadar24, the Wing of Zion plane of the Israeli Prime Minister briefly flew over Greek and Italian territory before veering off into the Atlantic.

Putin might consider taking a southbound flight. Georgia is a signatory to the Rome Statute but has the potential to turn a blind eye when its ruling party, the Georgian Dream, suspends Tbilisi’s application to join the EU.

And Turkiye, which is not party to the Rome Statute but has long hosted negotiations between Russian and Ukrainian negotiators and has treaded a tightrope, might be able to persuade the Russian president to step down.

Greece would serve as the main barrier from there, opening a way for Orban’s warm welcome through the Balkan states.

Has Putin traveled extensively since he was a war criminal wanted on international grounds?

Since the ICC warrant was issued, Putin has clearly restricted his travels.

He rode his horseback through Mongolia last year and was treated to a lavish ceremony with Mongolian President Ukhnaagiin Khurelsukh.

Russia and Mongolia depend on one another for fuel and electricity, but they have very friendly relations. It was surprising to see the red carpet being drawn out because the nation has abstained during UN votes on the conflict and has abstained from condemning Russia’s offensive in Ukraine.

Since Trump was able to fly directly to Alaska for a bilateral with him in August, he was able to fly over his nation’s enormous landmass over the Bering Strait to the US, which is not a signatory of the Rome Statute.

Since China is not a member of the ICC, the “old friend” and neighbor Xi Jinping’s annual parade and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit presented no issues this year.

The Russian president met with leaders from Central Asia this month, and he wants to strengthen ties with Tajikistan, which has ratified the Rome Statute.

Putin: When will he be detained?

Although it is nearly inconceivable to capture Russia’s president, the arrest warrants represent the first step toward a trial.

Only a select few foreign leaders have visited The Hague.

Rodrigo Duterte, the ex-president of the Philippines, turned himself in earlier this year to face crimes against humanity. The charges relate to extrajudicial killings committed during his infamous “war on drugs,” which resulted in the deaths of countless others.

Charles Taylor, a former leader of Liberia and a warlord, was found guilty in 2012 by the UN-backed Special Court for Sierra Leone, which held trial in The Hague. He was found guilty of 11 counts of war crimes and crimes against humanity.

Would a future Russian leader choose to forcibly hand Putin over for crimes against humanity committed during the former Yugoslavian wars, as happened with Slobodan Milosevic, who was removed in 2000 after being excommunicated from Serbia?