Many American families have a tradition of shopping at stores like Walmart for cranberries, sweet potatoes, and the Butterball turkey, a cult favorite.
However, under US President Donald Trump, questions of inflation and economic stability have become a hot button in the annual Thanksgiving meal kit.
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The Walmart kit’s price suggests that the Trump administration’s economic policies are slowing inflation, according to the administration. However, experts claim that the narrative is more complicated than what tinned pumpkin and stuffing packages can reveal.
The retailer is advertising a lower price this year, which is lower than the White House’s preferred $7 per person for 8 people in 2024.
Trump once more stated to reporters in the Oval Office on Friday that “we’ve got]prices] way down from last year. According to Walmart, Thanksgiving is exactly 25% less than last year.
However, the retailer’s offer includes restrictions, as well as a caveat. The kit uses more generic products than name brands, which typically lowers costs, and has fewer items (20 versus 29 last year).
Companies that provide Thanksgiving meal kits, such as Walmart, Amazon, and Kroger, can choose how to incorporate the costs into their packages.
Official data, however, actually indicates that prices are rising. Turkey prices will be about 40% higher than they were this year last year, according to US Department of Agriculture (USDA) forecasts, largely due to supply shortages linked to avian flu.
However, the price of turkey has fluctuated depending on the source of the data. Turkey will cost 16 percent less than it did this year, according to the American Farm Bureau. However, Purdue University researchers discovered that the price will increase by 25% over the previous year.
According to government data, potatoes and rolls have increased by 3.7%, and apples have increased by 5.3%, all overperforming the government’s inflation rate of 3.1%.
Cranberry sauce, according to a new analysis from Groundwork Collaborative, The Century Foundation, and AFT, has increased by 22% from the same time last year.
Wine prices are declining as a result of domestic production, but imported European bottles are experiencing a 15% increase.
Americans are now more cautious about spending in light of rising wholesale costs, limited economic data, and concerns about upcoming social safety net programs. In its most recent reading released on Tuesday, consumer confidence is still at its lowest level since April.
Why have prices increased?
The increase in poultry consumption is unrelated to economic policy. Turkeys are hampered by an ongoing strain of avian flu, with more than 2.2 million birds affected so far in 2025 and more than 600,000 confirmed infections in September. Farmers must slaughter the entire flock to stop the spread, further reducing supply even when just one bird has positive tests.
The largest, most geographically distributed avian flu outbreak ever to be identified is the current global H5N1 panzootic. More than any other previous avian influenza event, according to Crystal Heath, executive director of Our Honor, a veterinary advocacy organization, which has affected more countries, more wild species, and more continents at once.
In February 2022, Heath stated that the virus “started to spread through commercial poultry operations in the United States.”
However, the rise in prices is attributed to economic policy, which is a driving force behind other staples.
The price of agricultural products, such as tomatoes and potatoes, has increased as a result of both import costs and rising prices for farm inputs, many of which are imported directly, such as the fertiliser needed to grow food and farm machinery like tractors.
Farmers are paying more in input costs because of tariffs on imported materials, including parts, fertiliser, and other chemicals. According to Babak Hafezi, chief executive officer of Hafezi Capital, an international consulting firm, “these higher costs then get passed along, driving up the price of each unit and contributing to inflation.”
According to Hafezi, a shortage of labor costs agricultural products like apples, potatoes, and tomatoes, which are now more expensive.
“The problem is that fruit never makes it into the market when it hangs on the trees without being picked by anyone.” However, imports are needed because there is still a need. When I visited a California lemon farm, I noticed fruit everywhere, with the exception of the lemons that were just falling to the ground and going bad.
The price of canned goods has also increased as a result of tariffs.
Due to tariff increases, Campbell’s, one of the biggest producers of prepared foods, announced earlier this year that prices would need to go up.
The effects of tariffs are still being felt, as are any immigration issues that affect farm workers or workers in meat-processing plants. The system is still being hit by a lot of exogenous shocks. According to Matthew Higgins, professor of management at Tulane University, “This isn’t just, Hey, we had this huge run-up in inflation during COVID and prices haven’t come down,” he told Al Jazeera.
Trump eased tariffs on some consumer goods last week. Experts claim that the change does not mean that consumers will see lower prices this Thanksgiving or even at all, even though it immediately has an impact on imports and wholesale goods.
“Unless there is some major disruption, such as a recession, and people can no longer consume at their current levels,” Hafezi said, “the likelihood is very low.”
This has a historical precedent. Producers raised prices as a result of supply-chain strains in the COVID-19 pandemic, and retailers followed suit. Consumers already showed they would tolerate higher prices, leaving grocery stores with little incentive to lower them, even after those strains were eased.
That was made known by the Federal Trade Commission’s report for 2024, which listed higher grocery store prices.
According to the report, “some businesses appear to have used rising costs as an opportunity to increase their profits, and profits remain elevated even as supply chain pressures have decreased.”
spending pressures
Regardless of the cause, consumers are putting more pressure on themselves to get ready for the holidays, especially as a result of the recent US government shutdown.
In the weeks following the shutdown, City Harvest, a New York City-based nonprofit that collaborates with soup kitchens and food distribution centers, reported an increase in demand.
According to Jenna Harris, associate director of donor relations at City Harvest, “many federal employees were people seeking food assistance for the first time.”
City Harvest also noted that there are the city’s busiest and busiest visitors on record.
It’s really just showing that the rising cost of food is an issue, Harris continued, noting that about 67 percent of New Yorkers who visit food pantries have jobs, sometimes multiple jobs.
Visits have increased by 85 percent since 2019, according to FeedNYC, but the pressure is getting worse as a result. Families are navigating the SNAP program’s upcoming changes and the looming cost of healthcare in 2026. States have started contacting recipients of new requirements and giving them three months to comply if they don’t, or they could lose benefits altogether.
According to the Congressional Budget Office, approximately 2.2 million Americans could lose their health insurance premiums if the Affordable Care Act (ACA) subsidies aren’t being discussed, leaving low- and middle-income families struggling to keep coverage.
“As you move down the socioeconomic ladder, there is a lot of uncertainty, and that uncertainty only gets worse.” You’d expect people to be more cautious about spending money during the holidays, according to Higgins.
