Can Scotland find way to end All Blacks hoodoo?

Autumn Nations Series: Scotland v New Zealand

Where: Scottish Gas Murrayfield, Edinburgh When: Saturday, 8 November Time: 15:10 GMT

Things were simpler then. The fourth meeting of Scotland and New Zealand. A heaving Murrayfield, a 0-0 draw, January 1964. Euphoria at full-time. A pitch invasion to reflect the home team’s momentous achievement. Home flags waving, fists punching the air.

Having beaten Ireland, Wales and England (but not Newport, who beat the tourists 3-0) New Zealand had finally been halted in a Test.

The man from Pathe News almost blew a gasket. “A game that no-one who saw it will ever forget,” he reported breathlessly and somewhat optimistically. “A match in which Scotland saved the honour of Britain.”

Leaving the stadium that evening, Scottish fans would have had hope for the future. Four attempts at beating New Zealand and no wins, but clear signs that maybe one was not far off. Ah, the innocence of it all.

Three years later, New Zealand beat the Scots. Five years after that, they beat them again. Three years further on, same story. Another five-year gap and, yes, you know the rest. On and on and on. There was a second draw in 1983, a late kick to win it for Scotland. Missed. Next time…

In recent years the landslide 20, 30 and 40-point wins have narrowed to eight points, five points and eight points again in 2014, 2017 and 2022, but the All Blacks always find a way.

Through their brilliance, their power, their chicanery, they get the job done.

We’re now at the point of the week where the optimism that some may have held for a Scottish win is probably beginning to fade. Hope is colliding with history. The dream fades the closer we get to kick-off.

We’ve been in this movie before. The case for Scottish belief centred around these All Blacks not being vintage, which they’re not. They have greatness in their ranks but it’s not across the board.

They’re missing two Barretts – Scott and Jordie. They have lost to Argentina and have been pummelled by South Africa. Even in victory over Ireland in Chicago last weekend they weren’t all that scary. In moments, yes, but they didn’t have many.

An opening for Scotland? Yes and no. Thursday brought news that Zander Fagerson hadn’t made it. To Scottish ambitions it was like a kick in the guts.

Fagerson hasn’t played since April, but he’s a freak and had he been declared fit then the long gap without a game would not have been a massive concern.

In an era when most props are replaced long before the hour-mark, Fagerson’s engine keeps running. No tighthead played nearly as many minutes in the Six Nations – 68, 67, 76, 61 and 80 in Paris on the final day. Quality minutes, too.

Why bang on about a player who’s not playing? Because to pull off what would be Scotland’s biggest single Test win since the 1990 Grand Slam game with England – and to go into the top three of all-time along with the 1984 Grand Slam win against France – Scotland need every one of its big beasts.

They’re without Huw Jones but Rory Hutchinson is flying form with Northampton. There’s no such quality replacing big Zander. D’Arcy Rae is an admirable tighthead but his Test career consists of 73 minutes stretched across six years.

And when Rae is finished trying to take the fight to the enormous Ethan de Groot, there’s Elliot Millar-Mills to come on. Millar-Mills is a decent prop but there’s little to suggest that he’s All Black-beating class.

The red flags for Scotland are at tighthead. Rae will know this and the hope is that that concern for him among supporters will inspire him to deliver a career-defining performance. Belligerence is required.

There’s world class in the Scottish backline but without stability up front it will die at source. For all the buzz about what Finn Russell, Sione Tuipulotu, Darcy Graham, Blair Kinghorn and their dangerous support cast can produce, many eyes will be on how Rae is coping. He’s not box office but he’s monumentally important.

Townsend has sprung surprises in his selection, some logical, some curious. Kyle Steyn’s game-management intelligence replaces Duhan van der Merwe’s more one-dimensional power.

Against Ireland, New Zealand won the first leg of what they hope will be a Grand Slam tour. They took an age to get going, even when playing against 14 men for 20 minutes, but their last-quarter demolition did the trick.

That and Ireland’s defensive shape, their attack, their line-out and their scrum collapsing. Last-quarter power plays from New Zealand will not surprise Townsend. He’s been the victim of them himself in his years with Scotland.

The bench comes on, the screw is turned, the New Zealand discipline improves (or their infringements suddenly become invisible to officials) and the Test is won.

Townsend could close his eyes and see all of the key moments in his two near-misses against the Kiwis in 2017 and 2022. Some of them would involve All Blacks getting away with rugby murder.

For all that their blasts at the end of Tests are important, the last 20 minutes is not where the All Blacks do most of their damage. In all of their Tests going back three years, they’ve scored 87 tries in the first half of matches and 60 in the second half.

They’ve scored 39 in the first quarter, 48 in the second, 26 in the third and 34 in the fourth. They come exploding out of the traps. They’ve scored 19 tries in the first nine minutes of Tests in the past three seasons.

Against Scotland in 2022 they struck twice in the opening seven minutes. Leading 14-0, the game looked done. Scotland recovered majestically to hit them with 23 unanswered points. A historic feat. It wasn’t enough.

The lesson here is that, metaphorically, Scotland must put the boot on the throat from the start – and keep it there.

Over the last decade, the teams that have managed to beat New Zealand have required a points average in the high-20s. Scotland have got into the 20s only twice in their past 13 games against New Zealand. On two occasions before that they’ve hit 30, the problem being that the All Blacks scored 48 points in one of those games and 62 in the other.

Everything has to go right for Townsend’s team. Everything. If they start butchering chances early on then forget it. A yellow card? A high penalty count? A battered scrum? A bench that doesn’t bring a demonic intent? It’s over.

But what if everything does go right? A blistering beginning. A raucous crowd. Bedlam. Ruthlessness. Russell being Russell. Graham being Graham. Tuipulotu leading the way. Chances created and chances taken. All Blacks chasing and All Blacks getting driven back by the ferocity of Scotland’s defence.