Arsenal have their striker but creating chances the real issue

Arsenal initially felt desperate for a goalscoring striker last season, and they will now feel that Viktor Gyokeres has done just that.

In the Premier League title race, Arne Slot’s side scored 17 more goals than Liverpool did in 2024-25, which is arguably the biggest difference.

Gyokeres has obviously been asked to address that issue, though it may be a little more challenging.

The statistics for penalties are misleading because Liverpool (13.3%) last season had a higher shot conversion rate than Arsenal (12.6%), but that’s because of one key factor.

Arsenal won and scored a paltry two penalties, while Liverpool won and recorded a league-high nine.

Every spot-kick won in the Premier League significantly altered the team’s shot conversion rate as a function of their finishing ability, with penalties being scored at 83% and non-penalty shots only being scored at 11% in 2024-2025.

Although it was a lot, only 14 other teams have received more penalties in a season over the past ten, including Manchester United, who received 14 penalties in 38 games in 2019-20.

However, it is unusual for a team that had only two penalties to finish as high in the table as Arsenal. A side that received a point total in the 1970s has won an average of five penalties, while champions have won an average of eight in the previous ten campaigns.

The title race was also affected by those seven extra penalties last year, which included Liverpool’s nine spot-kicks, which added an additional 11 points over the course of the campaign.

Liverpool made exactly 2.5 more non-penalty shots every game than the Gunners did over the course of 38 games.

What that means is that Arsenal’s chances have been converted at a rate of 11% while Liverpool’s have historically been scored in the Premier League 12% of the time last season.

Eagle-eyed observers will have noticed that Arsenal “didn’t score” 24 goals despite conceding 17 goals less than Liverpool did so in reality.

When you factor in shot quality, Arsenal overperformed their non-penalty xG by seven goals to Liverpool’s measly 0:1.

In fact, only Nottingham Forest and Wolves were more ruthless in front of goal than the Gunners, despite the myth that Arsenal finished last season.

Gyokeres should help Arsenal improve their chances, which is obviously the better case for them. However, he should also contribute to solving the Gunners’ main issue of having enough chances in the first place.

He averaged 4.5 shots per 90 minutes last season for Arsenal, which is significantly higher than Gabriel Jesus’ (3.10) and Kai Havertz’ (2.6) averages in the Premier League.

Although it’s obvious that a striker’s success is partly attributable to the service he receives from his team-mates, it’s also a result of the choices he gives his team-mates with his movement and anticipation in and around the box.