Following the US’s increased airstrikes on Houthi targets, anti-Houthi groups in Yemen are thought to be competing for US support to attack the movement’s territory, according to analysts and experts.
For the past three years, the war in Yemen has largely been frozen. Organizations affiliated with the Yemeni government have also begun making announcements that they may launch operations in areas controlled by the pro-Iranian Houthis, including Hodeidah, a crucial port.
In 2018, a similar campaign to that aimed to target Hodeidah, a crucial hub for food and goods on the Red Sea coast, appeared to be on the cards, but it was aborted due to international support and the UN’s concern that Yemeni citizens would experience a humanitarian disaster.
However, some experts and analysts questioned whether an attack by anti-Houthi groups on their domestic rival would succeed in the late 2024 offensive against another Iranian ally, former Syrian President Bashar al-Assad.
According to independent Yemen analyst Hannah Porter, “Pro-ROYG]Republic of Yemen Government] voices have been claiming that ground operations against the Houthis are on the horizon in Hodeidah and possibly elsewhere,”
According to my understanding so far, these remarks are merely intended to sway the US or Saudi Arabia’s support for a Hodeidah takeover.
vying for US support
In 2014, the Houthis, or Ansar Allah as they are known, marched into and took control of Sanaa, Yemen. Soon after, a coalition led by Saudi Arabia intervened to support Yemen’s internationally recognized government.
In the first few years of the conflict, anti-Houthi forces had some success, but the unsuccessful Hodeidah campaign appeared to have slowed their advance, and the Houthis have largely been militarily dominant ever since.
Yemeni hostilities were put on hold after Saudi Arabia announced in March 2022, and a UN-brokered truce put an end to much of the fighting the following month.
While various anti-Houthi groups held the important port city of Aden and much of southern and eastern Yemen, the Houthis were still in control of Sanaa and a large portion of northwest Yemen.
Recent years have seen significant changes to the Yemeni government, with the removal of President Abd-Rabbu Mansour Hadi from office in 2022 and the establishment of an eight-member Presidential Leadership Council (PLC), which has thus far  , proven to be ineffective.
As reports of conflicts between him and President Rashad al-Alimi and accusations of mission creep rolled in, PLC Prime Minister Ahmed Awad Bin Mubarak resigned on Sunday, claiming to have been prevented from carrying out his duties.
Members of the PLC have previously fought the Yemeni government. They include former Houthis ally Aydarous al-Zubaidi, the leader of the separatist Southern Transitional Council (STC), and Tareq Saleh, his nephew.
However, some anti-Houthi forces now see an opening following Houthi bombing campaigns against Yemen and attacks on what they claim are Israeli-linked ships in the Red Sea.
Since the start of the Gaza crisis, Yemen expert Nick Brumfield has stated that “we’ve been witnessing various anti-Houthi factions lobbying for US support.”
The Yemeni government and the Southern Transitional Council have engaged in a competitive bid to become the United States’ partner in Yemen.
Plan versus reality
The Yemeni government has long emphasized that the Houthis’ defeat and the end of the group’s “coup” against the Yemeni state are its top priorities.
President al-Alimi stressed the importance of national unity in the “battle for liberation” in the early part of April, noting that the “decisive hour” was approaching.
Al-Alimi has not stated when the Houthis’s conflict will occur, but Yemeni government forces may see an increase in airstrikes by President Donald Trump’s administration.
The US claims that the strikes targeted Houthi leaders and significantly reduced Houthi capabilities. At least 123 Yemenis have been killed in the strikes since mid-March, according to Houthi authorities, many of whom are civilians.
According to reports from The Wall Street Journal (WSJ) and Bloomberg, US-backed, anti-Houthi ground operation discussions are raging.
The United Arab Emirates and the United Arab Emirates had discussed the plan with the US, according to the WSJ, but the UAE has denied any involvement. Assistant Minister for Political Affairs Lana Nusseibeh, Assistant Minister for Political Affairs, described them as “wild unsubstantiated stories” on April 17.
In 2019, the UAE formally withdrew its military from Yemen.
In rumor, Tareq Saleh is cited as a likely leader of any anti-Houthi campaign in the Red Sea.
However, according to experts, anti-Houthi Yemeni armed groups have not yet been able to mobilize effectively on the ground.
According to Raiman Al-Hamdani, a researcher for Yemen with ARK, an international development company, “the PLC has been talking about liberating Sanaa and such.”
“As far as I’m aware, there hasn’t been much mobilization toward this goal. With Saudi Arabia and the UAE no longer wanting to fight the Houthis, whether they can is a very different story.
The Saudis and Houthis reached a ceasefire agreement in 2022, leaving anti-Houthi groups, including the Yemeni government, uncertain about their future and the Houthis’ growing splinter.
Al Jazeera reached out to the Yemeni government for comment on this story, but it never received a response.
Comfortable with the status quo
Yemen’s most powerful tribes, many of whom currently support the Houthis, would face significant change in fortunes as a result of an advance on Sanaa, which is high up in the Yemeni mountains and closer to the Houthi heartland in Yemen’s far north.
Hodeidah, a coastal plain town with a lower level of support for the Houthis, would likely be the main target of any US-backed operations, though. Houthis would still suffer a significant loss if they lost Hodeidah and other parts of the Red Sea coast, which would impede their ability to attack shipping along the crucial sea route.
That would go against the US’s stated goal, even if the group were still able to launch missiles farther afield, to restrict the Houthis’ ability to attack regionally.
However, any attempt to seize Hodeidah would still likely require a fierce campaign, and so far, no force seems to be willing to fully support anti-Houthi forces militarily, even the US.
Given that the Yemeni government could not defeat the Houthis despite receiving significant military support from the Saudi-led coalition earlier in the conflict, that is problematic for the anti-Houthi forces and potentially non-starter.
According to Porter, “The Houthis will put all of their weight in their place in support of Hodeidah.” Their survival depends on it because of their port access.
She added that Houthis were likely to be more effective militarily than any other group attempting to advance against Hodeidah.
I don’t think the Presidential Leadership Council and the Government of Yemen are very concerned about changing the status quo, Porter said.
Source: Aljazeera
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