Analysis: ISIL attacks could undermine US-Syria security collaboration

A member of Syria’s own security forces ambushed a joint US-Syrian patrol on December 13 near Palmyra, a city in central Syria that was once under the control of the ISIL (ISIS) organization.

Before Syrian forces killed the shooter, two US soldiers and an interpreter were killed along with four other people.

US and Syrian officials made a connection between the attacker and ISIL, which once held vast areas of Syria and Iraq, and made a promise to retaliate following the attack.

The incident highlights the US and Syria’s growing cooperation with ISIL, particularly since Damascus joined the US-backed coalition in November.

Analysts claim that the two nations’ cooperation is strong and expanding, though it’s still unclear whether the attacker was an ISIL member or a group opposed to US-Syrian relations.

According to Rob Geist Pinfold, a scholar of international security at King’s College London, “The Syrian government is responding very strongly to ISIL [Hayat Tahrir al-Sham] had a long-term policy of fighting ISIL,” referring to former Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa’s group.

This is more of a continuation of the strategy that it HTS used in Idlib to crack down on insurgents and cells.

Noureddine al-Baba, a spokesman for Syria’s interior ministry, claimed that the gunman was not a member of the force responsible for escorting the US forces and that there was no direct chain of command over him within Syria’s internal security forces. He continued, looking into whether he had any direct ties to ISIL or embraced violent ideology.

Down ISIL attacks

ISIL dissolved the former Syrian government’s city of Palmyra in May 2015.

The city bounced between regime forces and ISIL before being expelled in 2017. It is best known for its Greco-Roman ruins.

ISIL had declared Raqqa, the country’s capital, the three-year-old caliphate, the US-led coalition had also forced the organization to leave in May 2017.

In northeast Syria’s al-Hol and Roj camps, which are run by the US-backed Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), many of the ISIL fighters still alive were housed there. Other people have occasionally launched attacks from the Syrian desert around Palmyra.

Analysts claimed that ISIL fighters regrouped after the Syrian president’s regime was overthrown on December 8, 2024, and that they used the chaos to attack various cities across the nation. At least 25 people were killed when the group launched an attack on a church in Damascus in June.

According to recent estimates, ISIL’s fighter numbers in Iraq and Syria range between 3 000 and 5 000, according to Samy Akil, a fellow researcher at the Tahrir Institute.

However, experts told Al Jazeera that Damascus and Washington have improved over the past year, and that Syrian security forces have prevented several ISIL attacks thanks to US-provided intelligence.

In contrast to the Assad administration, al-Sharaa’s new government consistently receives tip-offs from US intelligence and probably other forms of US support, according to the new government. That combination is quite powerful, according to Aron Lund, a research fellow at Century International with a focus on Syria.

According to a report from consulting firm Karam Shaar Advisory, ISIL attacks have decreased in Syria as a result of this collaboration. According to the report, ISIL launched 63 attacks per month on average in 2024, but that figure dropped to ten in 2025.

Collaboration with the US has become much simpler since HTS arrived in Damascus, according to senior analyst Jerome Drevon of the International Crisis Group.

structural problems

There were concerns about how security would be enforced following the Assad regime’s fall. Security would not be enforced by the few thousand HTS members who had previously only been in charge of northwest Syria’s Idlib.

Tens of thousands of new recruits were recruited by Syria’s security forces as part of a significant recruitment campaign, adding to the number of former opposition battalions that had been incorporated into the new security apparatus of the state.

According to analysts, vetting was a challenging task given the size of the recruitment campaign.

“The Palmyra attack is more of a one-off incident than a one-time incident. Infiltration continues because of the integration of former faction fighters and the rapid growth of new recruits, Nanar Hawash, senior Syria analyst for the International Crisis Group, said.

These factors, together, “flood off early warning signs and open up space for unintended threats, thereby increasing the risk of repeated attacks.”

Analysts predict that the vetting process will get better with time thanks to Syrian security forces. In addition, another attack like the one on December 13 was possible, which could undermine the US’s belief that al-Sharaa’s government could provide security in Syria.

The government will “improve its game and be more thorough to prevent that from happening again,” Drevon said, “because it will have consequences.” “It could happen again due to the sheer numbers of new recruits.

“We should be cautious about generalizing based on one attack, which might be a one-off,” he warned. However, if it occurs again, it might alter how the Syrian government is perceived.

ISIL’s goals are unknown.

Analysts say that since al-Assad’s assassination, ISIL’s priorities have changed.

ISIL is currently attempting to establish boundaries and carry out attacks knowing it cannot gain territorial control, Akil said.

It “aims at staying relevant while destabilizing.”

ISIS cannot overthrow cities or overthrow governments. But that’s not required. Destabilization is what gives it its strength, Hawach said. According to the Palmyra attack, “a single operative with the right access can shake up bilateral relations and endanger three US personnel.”

According to analysts, ISIL could destabilize Syria by attacking state security forces, religious minorities, or any foreigner on Syrian soil, including US soldiers and humanitarian or UN workers, like it did in the June attack at the Damascus church. The SDF and Damascus could use their differences over how to integrate the former into the state’s security apparatus to fuel further development.

The SDF also oversees the northeast of Syria’s al-Hol and Roj prison camps, where many of ISIL’s most skilled fighters and leaders are incarcerated. This could prove to be ISIL’s main target in Syria.

Hawach claimed that “ISIL thrives in those vacuums.”

Source: Aljazeera