A right-wing run-off: What to know about Bolivia’s presidential election

No left-wing candidate has been cast on the ballot in Bolivia as the country’s final round of presidential elections approaches.

Since the last election, the current governing party, the Movement Towards Socialism (MAS), has suffered an implosion, with party leaders splintering off and attacking one another.

Amid the fracas, MAS failed to advance a candidate to the run-off election, meaning its leadership — nearly uninterrupted since 2006 — is slated to come to an end.

In Sunday’s highly anticipated run-off, a centrist and a right-wing candidate square off.

However, the election is unlikely to fracture Bolivian politics, which have been fracturing and destabilizing for a while, as a result of a persistent economic crisis.

Who are the candidates? What issues are voters’ top priorities? What difficulties might the incoming administration face in the near future? We answer those questions and more in this brief explainer.

When is the last day to vote?

The election’s winner will be formally inaugurated on November 8 for the run-off vote on October 19.

What was the result of the first round?

The election’s conclusion itself reflects the country’s shifting and unpredictable political climate.

Despite receiving less than 10% in early polling, Rodrigo Paz, one of the two final candidates, emerged as the unexpected winner in the first round of voting. He carried more than 32 percent of the votes in the August 17 general election.

With nearly 27% of the vote, his rival, former president Jorge “Tuto” Quiroga, came in second.

No two candidates passed the required 50 percent or 40 percent with a 10-point margin over the closest rival in order to be elected president.

Who is Rodrigo Paz?

Senator Paz and former left-wing leader Jaime Zamora’s son are both senators.

He has worked with a number of different political parties throughout his career, but in this election he is a Christian Democratic Party candidate.

Paz has pitched himself as a more moderate voice who will embrace pro-market policies while taking a cautious approach to austerity measures. His campaign slogan reads “Capitalism for All.”

Edman Lara, a converted Christian and former police officer, quit and gained notoriety on social media for his outspoken criticism of corruption, as does his running mate.

Jorge Quiroga, who is he?

Former president and businessman Jorge “Tuto” Quiroga.

Early in his career, he worked in Texas for the multinational tech company IBM. However, his interests changed to politics, particularly in the 1990s, and he even served as Paz’s father’s finance minister in Bolivia.

Hugo Banzer, who had a military dictatorship in the 1970s, ran for president in 1997 with Quiroga as his running mate. But when Banzer was diagnosed with cancer and resigned in 2001, Quiroga succeeded him as president, serving the remainder of his term.

In his subsequent unsuccessful attempts to win the presidency, Quiroga lost in 2005, 2014, and 2020.

He is running for president of the Libre Alliance, a right-wing coalition, with a staunch pro-market campaign.

Quiroga’s running mate is Juan Pablo Velasco, a 38-year-old tech entrepreneur.

The polls’ answers: what are they?

Although polls currently favor Quiroga, analysts have pointed out that prior to the first round of voting, there had not been any evidence of support for Paz.

A poll taken between October 1 and 6 by the research firm CB Consultora found that Paz has an approval rating of 42.5 percent. Quiroga, however, has a 56% approval rating.

CB Consultora reported that protest votes, which are intended to be omitted or spoiled, are expected to rise while 75% of respondents said they would cast ballots in the run-off.

What happened to Bolivia’s left?

The left-wing MAS party, which presided over a period of robust economic growth while simultaneously reducing inequality, was a remarkable accomplishment.

Morales, who is regarded as the nation’s first indigenous president, seized control of the electoral system as a result.

But an electoral crisis in 2019 resulted in Morales fleeing the country after seeking a contested fourth term, in circumstances that his supporters have characterised as a coup.

The MAS leadership experienced a brief interruption as a result of the crisis, and the short-lived right-wing government was in charge of a deadly crackdown following the election.

When Luis Arce, Morales’ finance minister, replaced him as president in 2020, the left took over. But internal divides have critically weakened MAS, leading to Morales leaving the party.

Morales is prohibited from requesting a fourth term in courts because of an arrest warrant for alleged statutory rape. Morales has continued to support his efforts, calling the restriction on his candidacy an assault on his rights, though.

He has called upon his followers, many of whom are rural and Indigenous voters, to boycott the vote.

What are the priorities?

As Bolivians prepare to vote, concerns about the economy and the cost of living are on their minds.

High inflation and fuel shortages, along with dwindling foreign currency reserves, have been a source of hardship.

People are waiting in line for gasoline for hours, according to Kathryn Ledebur, the director of the Andean Information Network, a human rights advocacy organization in Bolivia. “Diesel, which is crucial for the transportation of other goods, is even worse.”

Polling compiled by the Americas Society/Council of the Americas (ASCOA) shows that 24 percent of Bolivians consider the economy their primary concern this election season. Another 17 percent cited price increases as a major concern, and 14 percent reported fuel shortages.

What controversy has shaped the election?

Velasco, Quiroga’s vice presidential running mate, has faced scrutiny over a series of racist social media posts he made in the past, &nbsp, celebrating violence against the country’s Indigenous population.

An Argentine social media user discovered the posts, some of which are nearly 15 years old. Since then, the posts have been verified by Bulgarian fact-checking organizations.

Velasco responded by denying that he authored the posts. The Bolivian press association issued a statement in support of the fact-checking organizations because of his further criticism of the fact-checkers.

What policies have the candidates suggested?

Both Quiroga and Paz are promising pro-market policies and a departure from the left-wing programme that has dominated Bolivian politics for the last two decades.

The only area of disagreement between the two candidates is how quickly those economic changes can be implemented.

Quiroga has stated that he will reduce funding for social programs, reduce subsidies, privatize state-owned businesses, and seek financial assistance from the International Monetary Fund (IMF).

Paz has been more hesitant when it comes to embracing calls for austerity and steep cuts to social programmes, although he has also said that he would cut fuel subsidies.

He also questioned Bolivia’s ability to lower tariffs to encourage imports of goods that the nation does not produce itself, and expressed interest in greater integration into regional trade blocs like MERCOSUR.

What will the election mean for relations with the United States?

Bolivia’s potential for a right-wing government has been approved by US President Donald Trump’s administration.

Coexisting policies that were in conflict with MAS leadership’s efforts to grow coca, a major crop in Bolivia and the source of cocaine, had strained bilateral ties.

On October 14, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio addressed the election outright, calling it “important”.

Bolivia will hold elections later this month, according to Rubio. Both candidates running in the run-off election want strong and better relations with the United States after 25 years of hostile, anti-American governments. Another transformative opportunity there”.

Morales, a vocal critic of the US “war on drugs,” claimed in 2013 that the US Drug Enforcement Agency (DEA) was collaborating with USAID and that it was trying to influence Bolivian politics.

Washington, DC, according to Ledebur, “was a great deal of frustration because this refuted the notion that to govern successfully you need US funding and cooperation,” was said.

Both Paz and Quiroga have said that they will seek closer ties with the US. Particularly, Quiroga has criticized left-wing governments in Latin America, including those in Venezuela, Cuba, and Nicaragua, with whom MAS had established ties.

The Trump administration is adopting a more aggressive stance in Latin America right now, using US influence to support right-wing allies in nations like Argentina and Brazil, and pushing a highly militarized strategy to combat drug trafficking.

What will the left-leaning Bolivian do next?

Bolivia’s political left is gearing up for a period of political wilderness after years of dominance.

The candidate for MAS, Eduardo del Castillo, won just 3.2 percent in the first round of voting in August. Andronico Rodriguez, a former MAS member, received 8% of the vote.

Due to Paz’s populist stance and soft approach to economic austerity, many former MAS supporters have turned to him, according to Ledebur, who believes the once-powerful left needs to rekindle internal tensions and find a new course of action.

But the forces that have powered the Bolivian left for decades, such as Indigenous and rural voting blocs, are likely to remain a formidable force, even if MAS finds itself out of power.

Ledebur claims that harsh austerity measures may result in significant protests and backlash.

She anticipates that a conflict with the new government will help bring the left together around a common cause, but it will take time.

“The left will definitely have to change something after its defeat in the election”, she said. A reconfiguration is expected, but it could take some time.

Source: Aljazeera