A ‘novice’ who can ‘punch a bit’ – how good is Paul?

Jake Paul has spent years demanding to be recognised as a “real” boxer.

He has called out the likes of Saul ‘ Canelo ‘ Alvarez, while at the same time picking opponents ranging from retired MMA fighters and faded ex-champions to reality TV personalities and even a grandfather.

But on Friday in Miami, that sideshow collides with boxing’s top tier as Paul faces two-time heavyweight world champion and Olympic gold medallist Anthony Joshua.

Some give Paul, the Disney-actor-turned-YouTuber-turned-boxer, credit for daring. Others question his sanity. Almost nobody gives him a chance.

“I worry about Jake’s health”, trainer Joe Gallagher tells BBC Sport.

Former world champion and Team GB coach Richie Woodhall says Joshua is the “hardest puncher” he has ever had on the pads.

Liverpool’s two-division champion Natasha Jonas calls the whole event simply “wild”.

That tension with boxing’s old guard irritates Paul. In fight week, he bristled at the mention of criticism, describing detractors as a “peanut gallery that doesn’t exist” and insisting the question of whether he belongs no longer concerns him.

On paper, Paul-Joshua is the biggest mismatch to headline a boxing event.

Paul has built the kind of operation only someone with serious finances – and intent – could assemble. Even sceptics acknowledge the graft.

“He’s not one of these people who say it but don’t live it. He takes it seriously”, Jonas says.

He trains out of a £3m converted warehouse in Puerto Rico, a full-time base with recovery suites, a strength and conditioning centre and high-end equipment used by elite professionals.

Conditioning coach Larry Wade, who has worked with world champions such as Shawn Porter and Badou Jack, oversees his physical work.

Sparring has matched the investment. Former cruiserweight world champion Lawrence Okolie spent time with Paul and, according to the Londoner’s trainer Gallagher, returned “impressed by how much better Paul was than people think”.

Cuban heavyweight Frank Sanchez and American puncher Jared Anderson are also sparring partners.

American heavyweight Cassius Chaney – who shared 13 rounds with him early in camp – says the work was real.

“The guys haven’t taken it easy on him”, he says.

“Everything is intact. From the first day to the second day of sparring, Jake has definitely got better”.

Paul himself points to tangible progress.

Paul has beaten names casual fans recognise, but rarely when their boxing ability has carried weight.

The win over Mike Tyson generated headlines, the reality was a 58-year-old whose best nights belong to another century. Julio Cesar Chaez Jr had pedigree but lacked commitment.

And when Paul faced a legitimate boxer, Tommy Fury in 2023, he was outboxed and outpointed.

Team Paul point to first-round knockouts of Ryan Bourland and Andre August as proof of progress. Both had respectable records on paper but little standing inside the sport, and neither has boxed since.

Useful as development markers, they do not indicate anything beyond novice level.

“Would he win a British title? No, he’s probably like an area-level type of fighter”, Jonas says.

For Woodhall, the gap is vast. “My Team GB amateurs would send him into the next universe. They’d box his head off”.

Gallagher draws a comparison with Conor Benn – another fighter who built a profile without climbing the traditional ladder.

Those who have shared rounds with Paul acknowledge he offers more than the caricature suggests.

“He’s athletic, he has an IQ and he works hard. Those qualities alone are big”, Chaney says. He describes Paul’s power as “twitchy… the kind where you think, ‘ oh, he’s caught me there'”.

Gallagher feels the unconventional nature of Paul’s style could be his biggest asset.

“He’s not your textbook fighter that has come through an amateur system, where he has to put together the basics”, he says.

“There’s an awkwardness to him and his record shows he can punch”.

Paul’s conditioning has sharpened, but money can’t buy time in boxing and ring craft can only be forged through years of competitive rounds.

“Even experienced journeymen know how to take a shot, run the clock down. Jake doesn’t have that experience”, Woodhall says.

Chaney – originally earmarked to be Joshua’s next opponent – expects Paul to try to steal small moments rather than commit to anything sustained and believes Joshua may be cautious early.

“No fighter wants to get caught by Jake Paul”, he says.

Gallagher believes fans will have the “stopwatch” out to see how quickly Joshua finishes it, though he still predicts a clinical end. Jonas “wouldn’t be surprised if it’s over in 10 seconds”.

For all the Netflix build-up and celebrity gloss, though, Woodhall sees real danger.

“Jake better just keep his hands up and keep really low. If he’s going to make a fight of it he has to have a go – and if he has a go, he will get completely blown away”, he says.

Recent history backs that fear. When Joshua last faced a non-elite opponent, Francis Ngannou – a former MMA heavyweight champion – was flattened by a single, chilling right hand.