Nearly two-thirds of the country’s lawmakers are at risk of losing their posts as a result of a nationwide referendum, which is the Kuomintang (KMT) party’s (KMT) party’s) political opposition.
Voters in Taiwan’s 31 districts will decide whether to keep or remove their members of parliament starting this weekend.
The “Great Recall,” as it is known locally, is Taiwan’s largest vote of its kind, and if it is defeated, it could cost the KMT its majority in the country’s legislature.
The outcome will influence Taiwan’s domestic politics for the next three years and determine how well President William Lai Ching-te’s government can handle pressing issues like defense spending.
When will there be a recall election?
On Saturday, eligible voters can cast recall ballots for 24 KMT legislators, followed by a second round of voting for seven KMT legislators in late August.
Following a number of successful petition campaigns earlier this year, the recall was announced. To hold a recall vote in Taiwan, organizers must obtenir the signatures of 10% of the district’s registered voters in accordance with Taiwan’s election laws.
25 percent of the district’s registered voters must vote for a recall, and the district must receive more votes in favor than against.
A by-election must be held within three months if a legislator is elect to be recalled by voters.
Although recall elections will be held across Taiwan this weekend, the KMT’s traditional stronghold is in the north, particularly around Taipei, the capital city.
In 2024, the KMT holds a 62-seat majority coalition with the Taiwan People’s Party and two independent legislators, winning 52 of the 113 legislative seats.
In his first year in office, the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), which holds 51 seats, had a strong enough coalition to stymie its efforts to defeat that party.
Can the recall be successful?
According to Lev Nachman, a professor of Taiwanese politics at National Taiwan University, Taiwan typically has high voter turnout during major elections, but recall votes are more of a wildcard.
“These shouldn’t pass because of our prior experience,” we should learn. We’ve never seen this kind of mobilization at recalls before, he told Al Jazeera, citing widespread involvement by regular people. “We are going through some unprecedented times.”
Former KMT member and spokesperson Ho Chih-yung claimed the recall campaign had “created a national election-like atmosphere” that would put the pressure on Taiwan’s major political parties to mobilize and support.
He added that the bad weather could also cause the KMT’s older voter base to turn away from voting because a tropical storm is currently moving north of Taiwan.
Why is international media coverage of the recall vote?
According to Nachman, the outcome of the vote will be whether Lai will lead as president for the next three years and whether he will be able to lead important defense and foreign policy initiatives.
“Unfortunately, it’s a really big deal because every question that foreign policy professionals have depends on whether or not these recalls are successful,” he said.
Due to Taiwan’s contestable political standing and the threat of a Chinese-led conflict in the Taiwan Strait, the situation has a global significance.
The classic issue with Taiwan is that it’s not just that society is divided; it’s also that society is split, and that the decision-making process revolves around whether or not a war will break out in this country, he continued.
“Everything here is infinitely more existential,” the statement goes.
Why is the KMT being targeted by voters?
The KMT has irritated voters and even alienated traditional supporters by attempting to expand legislative authority and criticize President Lai’s budget despite winning 14 seats in the previous election.
From Taiwan’s submarine and drone programs to its Council of Indigenous Peoples, the legislature’s KMT majority was able to freeze or reduce 205. 5 billion New Taiwan dollars (then worth $6. 3 billion) from Lai’s 2025 budget.
The budget fight sparked international interest when the KMT sought to spend $3.1 billion on defense, which was headlined in Taiwan.
Some of the cuts, according to Brian Hoie, a frequent commentator on Taiwanese politics and a non-resident fellow at the University of Nottingham’s Taiwan Research Hub, angered a wide range of voters and groups that have traditionally supported the KMT, including farmers and indigenous voters.
He claimed that the KMT’s budget cuts have infuriated all these undetermined demographics.
He continued, “That was just very unstrategic.”
What about the China-related problem?
Although Taiwan’s relationship with China is one of the oldest political parties in Asia, a generational conflict poses a challenge to its standing in Taiwan’s politics. Some voters think Beijing’s Chinese Communist Party (CCP) has co-opted the organization.
Taiwan’s two main political parties have proposed annexing Taiwan in the future using force or force, and Beijing’s threat has been met with differing responses.
The KMT follows a more diplomatic path that favors ongoing dialogue with China, while President Lai’s DPP has a more outspoken position by supporting Taiwan on the international stage and increasing defense spending.
Some of the KMT’s most well-known members have been removed due to concerns about China, such as party whip Fu Kun-chi, who controversially led a delegation of lawmakers to Beijing last year amid significant political unrest in the Taiwan Strait.
What is said by the KMT?
Ho, a former KMT spokesperson and former KMT member, claimed that the recall supporters were abusing a system intended to remove people from positions of authority for serious reasons, including corruption.
Ho said that this “mass recall” campaign is a general attempt to unseat opposition lawmakers from all sides rather than just the individual performance of KMT legislators.
The DPP has purposefully criticized the KMT of “selling out Taiwan,” a move that is intended to stoke ideological divisions and mobilize its base through fear and hostility, increasing the likelihood that the recall votes will be passed, he claimed.
A senior KMT party official added to Al Jazeera’s report that as the cost of living and economic stress caused by President Donald Trump’s trade war and threat of tariffs on Taiwan are rising, leading to concerns for voters.
Trump has threatened to impose tariffs of up to 32% on the island nation’s export-focused economy. The New Taiwan dollar has increased by 11 percent over the past six months, forcing thousands of small and medium-sized domestic manufacturers to face lower costs as their spending power increases as their prices increase.
