A successor to Morales?
Morales ultimately left MAS and founded a new political party in January this year, further splintering the left.
But he has continued to attack prominent left-wing rivals for the presidency, including President Arce, whose candidacy suffered amid Bolivia’s recent economic downturn.
In May, Arce ended his re-election campaign, blaming political infighting.
In a statement announcing his withdrawal, Arce wrote, “I do so with the clearest conviction that I will not be a factor in dividing the popular vote, much less facilitate the making of a fascist right-wing project.”
He added: “We must put the interests of the homeland and the people first, above personal and short-term electoral ambitions.”
In recent months, Andronico Rodriguez has emerged as the left’s best hope in the upcoming presidential race.
A 36-year-old senator, Rodriguez, like Morales, boasts a background leading a coca growers’ union. Morales himself once presented Rodriguez as his political heir.
However, their relationship ruptured when Rodriguez announced his candidacy for the presidency.
Morales has since slammed Rodriguez as a lackey for “the empire” — a term he uses to denounce foreign interests like the United States.
“I understand that some colleagues, senators and representatives from Andronico are now calling out, ‘We must unite,'” Morales said in July on his radio show.
“I don’t understand this double talk. I don’t know if it’s a lack of ethics.”
In another public appearance, Morales also accused Rodriguez of being an instrument of the political right: “The right and the empire are using Andronico to divide us.”
It is unclear how much those attacks have whittled away at Rodriguez’s support.
On August 8, the newspaper El Deber released a survey showing Rodriguez trailing his right-wing competitors by a wide margin.
Fewer than 9 percent of respondents backed Rodriguez, compared with more than 20 percent for both businessman Samuel Doria Medina and former President Jorge Quiroga.
That said, Jauregui, the analyst, is sceptical of how much of the overall shift away from Bolivia’s left is due to Morales’s sway.
“I think his leadership is overestimated,” Jauregui said. “His ability to influence is now quite limited.”
