Thailand’s Constitutional Court will rule on whether to remove former prime minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra from office in a decision that could endanger the ailing Shinawatra dynasty and cause political unrest in the Southeast Asian nation.
Paetongtarn would become the fifth prime minister to be removed from office by Thailand’s judges, who, according to critics, defend the country’s royalist-military establishment in an unfavorable verdict on Friday.
Additionally, the choice might lead to early elections.
The ruling on Friday is also the second in three high-stakes court cases involving her father, former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra, and Paetongtarn, 39.
The 76-year-old billionaire, who is a hero to the country’s rural poor and who was ousted in a military coup in 2006, was spared jail last week after being found not guilty of insulting the country’s powerful monarchy.
After 16 years of self-imposed exile, he is still facing a second case involving his return to Thailand in 2023, which could result in his being put back in jail.
Analysts believe the Shinawatra brand is in danger because of the saga and Paetongtarn’s failure to fulfill key economic promises, even if she survives.
Napon Jatusripitak, visiting fellow and acting coordinator of the ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute’s Thailand Studies Program, said, “I believe the Shinawatra brand is done for.”
The Shinawatra legacy is very important to Phuket. According to him, Paetongtarn’s naivete, which has been used in public spectacle on a global scale, has squandered even the charismatic leadership Thaksin is frequently associated with, he said, referring to her leaked conversation with former Cambodian prime minister Hun Sen.
A political argument in this context
Paetongtarn was reportedly heard kowtowing to Hun Sen, a long-time friend of her father, during the call, which occurred in May after deadly border clashes between Thai and Cambodian forces. He was also criticized for referring to him as an “opponent” and calling him an “opponent.”
Some Thais accused her of treason after hearing the comments in the media. The Constitutional Court apologised for her remarks, but the case was reopened pending a hearing into the complaint.
Meanwhile, the border conflict escalated, causing tens of thousands of people to flee along the border, killing dozens of people.
Khemthong Tonsakulrungruang, a constitutional law scholar at Chulalongkorn University, noted how the courts intervened to remove his sister, Yingluck, from power after a coup in 2014 and topple Thaksin-aligned prime ministers in 2008.
The outcome will depend on political instructions rather than legal arguments, Khemthong said. Never has this been a legal issue. It is a political case, as it has always been.
Paetongtarn’s fact that the controversy occurred at a time when Pheu Thai’s popularity has fallen has not helped him. The party has struggled to implement important policies, including legalizing casinos, reviving the economy, and completing a much-looted cash handout program, in its troubled two years in power.
Pheu Thai’s decision to strike a deal with royalist-backed, military-backed parties to take office in 2023 has caused a stir in the public.
Pheu Thai placed second behind the progressive youth movement Move Forward in the vote that year, but the conservative-controlled Senate prevented them from form a government.
Thaksin returned to Thailand after that same power-sharing arrangement.
The politician, who had been ordered to serve his eight-year sentence in absentia on corruption charges, was taken to jail after his arrival to begin serving. King Maha Vajiralongkorn reduced his sentence to a year, but he was taken to a hospital on medical grounds during his first night. He was kept in a hospital suite for six months before being granted parole.
The Supreme Court will now decide whether his hospital stay was appropriate in a situation where he might be sent back to prison to serve his sentence.
According to Thitinan Pongsudhirak, a professor and senior fellow at Chulalongkorn University’s Faculty of Political Science, “Thaksin had the moral high ground of being overthrown, from being democratically elected,” he conceded that position by striking a deal with the establishment.
He has given up, he has given in, and I believe the Shinawatra brand has now lost its political value.
The conservative forces are after more than just the Shinawatras, according to Thitinan.
They are looking out for any threat that they perceive that calls for reforms and Thailand’s modernization. Thailand has endured this for the past 20 years because of this. Thailand will remain in this shackle until it can be removed from the system, where elected governments are overthrown through subversion and manipulation, and the autocratic forces that overthrow are unable to do so,” he continued.
A “real-life Squid Game”
In fact, Thailand might experience a period of unpredictability again if Paetongtarn is removed. Because the current constitution, which was drafted under the supervision of the military, only allows politicians whose parties had nominated them for prime minister before the 2023 elections.
Chaikasem Nitisiri, a former justice minister and Thaksin loyalist, may be the country’s final eligible candidate for prime minister.
Other candidates are members of the conservative parties, including former United Thai Nation (UTN) Party leader Prayuth Chan-ocha and Bhumjaithai Party leader Anutin Charnvirakul. Since Prayuth is currently a Privy Council member, he would need to step down.
After removing Paetongtarn, Napon of the ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute said he thinks the royalist-military establishment will be able to form a new coalition with Pheu Thai but with the party “relegated to a kind of junior partner in the coalition” under a conservative leadership despite them having the most seats.
Given that Thaksin still has a case pending regarding his hospital stay, “Pheu Thai could accept that kind of arrangement,” Napon said. He might be sent back to prison in the worst case scenario. That might be used as leverage to re-enter Pheu Thai’s power-sharing arrangement with the conservatives.
Millions of voters have been let down by the continued conservative stranglehold on power, especially young Thai voters, who claim their votes and hopes for a bigger stake in their nation’s future have been ignored.
Former Move Forward legislator Pannika Wanich, who has received a lifetime ban from politics, told Al Jazeera, “Thai democracy is largely on paper.”
Thai politics resemble a Squid Game in reality. Before the game master selects the player they want, prime ministers are eliminated one by one. The laws are rigged, and they violate democratic principles.
