With the assertion that “America’s golden age” is the result of his policies, the White House has launched an aggressive public relations campaign to spread a narrative of economic strength during his first six months as president of the United States.
But an Al Jazeera analysis of economic data shows the reality is more mixed.
Trump’s claims that his policies helped the US economy were undermined by the most recent employment report, which revealed that the nation added just 73, 000 jobs last month, far below what forecasters had anticipated. The only additions were made by the social services sector, which added 18 000 jobs, and the healthcare industry, which added 55, 000.
US employers also cut 62, 075 jobs in July — up 29 percent from cuts in the month before, and 140 percent higher than this time last year, according to the firm Challenger, Gray and Christmas, which tracks monthly job cuts. The industries that have seen the biggest declines this year are the government, tech, and retail.
The report on employment and labor turnover for this month revealed an economic slowdown. There were 7.4 million open jobs in the US, down from 7.7 million a month before.
The White House’s previous image was significantly altered by the Department of Labor’s (DOL) downward revisions released on Friday for both the May and June jobs reports.
In a July 3 release following the initial June report, the White House stated that “job numbers have overmatched market expectations for the FOURTH month in a row, with nearly 150, 000 good jobs created in June.”
The Labor Department had reported an addition of 147, 000 jobs in June. That figure was drastically revised to just 14, 000 on Friday. Additionally, the report from May saw a significant drop in employment, dropping from 144, 000 to only 19, 000. Trump has since fired the head of the agency that produces the monthly jobs data, alleging that the data had been manipulated to make him look bad.
The first to show early signs of economic strain as a result of the revisions was June’s report, which revealed that job growth was concentrated in areas like state and local government and healthcare. Construction, wholesale trade, and manufacturing were the only industries that were more sensitive to trade policy. Meanwhile, leisure and hospitality showed weak growth, even in peak summer, reflecting falling travel demand both at home and abroad.
Additionally, the administration claimed that all job gains have come from people who are native Americans since January. That claim is false because it implies that neither naturalized citizens nor legally present foreigners have ever worked.
However, it is true that employment among foreign-born workers has declined – by over half a million jobs – claims that native-born workers are replacing foreign-born labour, are not supported by the jobs data.
Jobs lost in industries like technology where there are many foreign-born workers are plentiful, as a result of tariffs and automation, particularly AI. In fact, recent tech layoffs were specifically linked to labor displacement by other groups rather than AI advancements.
Companies including Recruit Holdings — the parent company of Indeed and Glassdoor, Axel Springer, IBM, Duolingo and others have already made headcount reductions directly attributed to AI advancements.
Wage growth
In recent months, wage growth, which is an indicator of economic success, has slowed. That is partly due to the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates steady in hopes of keeping inflation stable.
Since the COVID pandemic, wages have been outpacing inflation, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, since 2023.
In July, wage growth increased by 0.3% from the previous month. Compared with this time last year, wage growth is 3.9 percent, according to Friday’s Labor Department jobs report.
The White House revealed earlier this year that policy-related wage growth had changed between the time of former President Joe Biden and the time of Trump.
Real wages increased by almost two percent in President Trump’s first five months of office, in stark contrast to the negative wage growth seen during the Biden administration, according to a release from the White House.
However, Biden and Trump inherited two very different economies when they took office. The COVID-19 pandemic has caused a significant global economic decline for Bangladesh.
Trump, on the other hand, inherited “unquestionably the strongest economy” in more than 20 years, according to the Economic Policy Institute, especially given how much the US economy has recovered from rival countries.
Inflation
Inflation peaked in mid-2022 during Biden’s term at 9 percent, before falling steadily because of the Federal Reserve’s efforts to manage a soft landing.
Core inflation has decreased to just 2.1% since President Trump took office, according to a White House statement from July 21. In a post on X on Wednesday, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessett stated that “inflation is cooling.”
However, the Consumer Price Index report, which tracks core inflation – a measure that excludes the price of volatile items such as food and energy – was 2.9 percent in the most recent report and overall inflation was at 2.7 percent in June.
Prices
According to the most recent Consumer Price Index report, which was released on July 15, prices for all goods increased by 0.3 percent per month in June, up 2.7% from the same period last year.
Particularly, grocery prices increased by 2.4 percent from the same period last year and by 0.3 percent from the same period last year. The cost of fruits and vegetables went up 0.9 percent, the price of coffee increased by 2.2 percent and the cost of beef went up 2 percent.
According to Al Jazeera, new tariffs on Brazil could cause the price of beef to go up even further in the coming months.
After Democrats attacked his administration over egg prices in March, Trump has cited falling egg prices specifically as evidence of economic growth. He has even gone so far as to claim that prices are down by 400 percent. A 100 percent reduction in the price of eggs would theoretically make them free.
Not as a result of any particular policy change, prices spiked during the first few months of Trump’s term eggs, before falling as a result of a severe avian flue outbreak that had been hampered supply.
In January, when Trump took office egg prices were $4.95 per dozen as supply was constrained by the virus. The average egg price in March was $6.23. However, consumers were sucked out by outbreaks and high prices, allowing farmers with healthier flocks to recoup their supply losses. As a result, prices fell to an average of $3.38. Far cry from the 400 percent claimed by Trump, which would be a 32 percent decline since the start of his term and a 46 percent decline from their peak price.
Trump also recently stated that some states’ gas prices are set at $ 0.02 per gallon ($0.52 per litre). He doubled down on that again on Wednesday. That is false. These gasoline prices are not found in any other state.
According to Gasbuddy, a platform that helps consumers find the lowest prices on petrol, Mississippi at $2.70 a gallon ($0.71 per litre) has the cheapest gas, and the cheapest petrol station in that state is currently selling gas at $2.37 ($0.62 per litre).
The average national average for gasoline is $3.15 per gallon ($0.83 per litre), which is higher than the national average of $3.11 ($0.82 per litre) at the end of January.
Petrol prices have dropped since Trump took office, but they don’t seem to be anywhere near the rate he’s consistently suggested. In July 2024, for instance, the average price for a gallon of petrol nationwide was $3.50 ($0.93 per litre).
GDP
The White House cited the release of positive GDP data on Wednesday, saying that “President Trump has reduced America’s reliance on foreign products and increased investment in the US.”
That is misleading. While the US economy grew at a 3 percent annualised rate in the second quarter, surpassing expectations, that was a combination of a rebound after a weak first quarter, a drop in imports – which boosted GDP, and a modest rise in consumer spending.
According to the data below the headline, the private sector’s investment rate decreased sharply by 15.6% and the company’s stock of goods and services decreased by 3.2%, indicating a slowdown.
Manufacturing
The administration recently cited increases in domestic manufacturing as evidenced by improvements in industrial production. Overall, there was a 0.3 percent increase in US industrial production in June. After two months of stagnation, that was.
There have been only small improvements, such as increases in the oil- and aerospace sectors, which are up 1.6% and 2.9%, respectively.
But production of durable goods — items that are not necessarily for immediate consumption— remained flat, and auto manufacturing fell by 2.6 percent last month as tariffs dampened demand. Additionally, mining output decreased by 0.3%.
Manufacturing growth among non-durable goods has slowed, according to the Department of Commerce’s gross domestic product report. While there was a 1.3 percent increase, that’s a decline from 2.3 percent in the previous quarter.
As a result of several businesses from a variety of industries promising to increase US production, including automaker Hyundai and pharmaceutical tycoon AstraZeneca, which recently pledged a $50 billion investment over the next five years, this may change.
tariffs and trade agreements
In April, the White House replaced country-specific tariffs with a 10-percent blanket tariff while maintaining additional levies on steel, cars, and some other items. Then, it vowed to deliver “90 trade deals in 90 days.” That standard was not exceeded. By the deadline, only one loosely fleshed out deal — with the United Kingdom — had been announced. The US announced comparable agreements with a small number of nations and the European Union as of 113 days later. The parliamentary approval of the EU deal is still required.
Contrary to the administration’s claims, tariffs do not pressure foreign exporters — they are paid by US importers and ultimately are likely to be passed on to US consumers. Price increases have been made directly as a result of companies like Walmart, a big box store, and Mattel, a toy company. Ford, for instance, increased prices on three Mexican-made models in response to tariff pressures.
To protect their own economies, many countries have pivoted their trade policies away from the US. A new trade pact was recently signed by Brazil and Mexico.
The White House and its allies continue to support tariffs by highlighting how much more money they actually bring in to the government. Since Trump took office, the US has brought in more than $100bn in revenue, compared with $77bn in the entire fiscal year 2024. Although consumers’ prices have only increased by about 3 percent since the beginning of the import tax system, many people anticipate that to change.
