Yemen’s Houthi rebels claim to be working with Tehran as the Israeli-Iran conflict escalates.
Since 2023, the Houthis, also known as Ansar Allah, have launched attacks against Israel and shipping in the Red Sea in a bid to support Palestinians in Gaza.
According to Houthi spokesperson Yahya Saree, who added that the Yemeni group was coordinating with the Israeli army’s operations against the “criminal Israeli enemy,” the Houthis claim that their most recent attacks are being carried out for the “Palestinian and Iranian peoples.”
The Houthis announced that they had targeted Israel on Sunday, two days after Israel launched an initial assault on Iran on June 13.
Saree claimed that the group had fired several ballistic missiles at Jaffa during a televised address.
According to Hussain Albukhaiti, a pro-Houthi political commentator, the Houthis are planning their attacks against Iranians.
According to Albukhaiti, the Houthis are “launching missiles” “after Iran has launched its missiles.” In order to reduce the Palestinian people’s fear of the Zionist settlers in Gaza, Israelis keep moving between their homes.
The Houthi attacks are essentially continuations of Israel’s previous frequent missile and drone attacks. Most of the attacks have been intercepted by Israelis, but some have even managed to pass, most notably an early May attack at Ben Gurion that left six people injured and forced flights to be halted.
According to Yemen expert Nicholas Brumfield, the Houthi attacks have also had a negative impact on Israeli defenses.
Israel must spread out its air defenses in order to more effectively repel counterattacks coming from Iran, he told Al Jazeera.
routes for shipping
The Houthis began attacking ships in the Red Sea in November 2023, according to reports that they were connected to Israel. Yemen’s Houthi-controlled regions are forced to pass by international ships entering the Red Sea.
Following a US bombing campaign reportedly resulting in the deaths of more than 200 people in Yemen, the attacks have stopped in recent months, particularly after the Houthis and the United States reached an agreement to stop attacking one another in early May.
The Houthis never agreed to stop attacking Israel, which has also continued to bomb Yemen, and the attacks may still be coming back.
According to Albukhaiti, “We had an agreement with the US to stop attacking each other, but Yemen will not adhere to that agreement if the US joins the Zionists in attacking Iran.”
Trump’s unilateral withdrawal from the nuclear agreement between Iran and several Western nations in 2018 was mentioned by the US president, “We recall that Trump cancelled the nuclear deal between Iran and the US,” he said. Trump allegedly canceled the deal because it was against Israel’s wishes.
He said, “Yemen will do the same, and we will cancel the agreement with the US because it is not in the interests of Iran, which is a significant ally of Yemen,” referring to the Houthi rebel group as “Yemen,” despite the country’s opposition to its government’s legitimacy.
Iran has also threatened to close the Strait of Hormuz, which separates Oman from Iran. The Strait of Hormuz passes through roughly 20 million barrels per day (BPD), or roughly 20% of the global petroleum liquids consumed, according to the US Energy Information Administration (EIA).
According to experts, the Houthis may do the same in the Red Sea.
According to Brumfield, sea mines are “very low-tech, easy-to-make mines that would still cause significant uncertainty for global shippers.”
“I don’t believe Iran or Yemen will be reluctant to obstruct, if necessary, all of our region’s shipping routes,” Albukhaiti continued.
Gulf states’ risks
Additionally, there are concerns that the conflict might drag on in other region nations. The Houthis have previously engaged in combat in many Middle Eastern nations, including Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, and the US has bases there.
Gulf nations could become threatened by Houthi attacks if the conflict escalates.
The Houthis are attempting to recover from the US strikes that occurred between mid-March and mid-May, according to Brumfield, who suggests that they aren’t begging to rekindle those more intense strikes. If they saw themselves as a major regional conflict between the US and Israel and the Axis of Resistance, especially if US military resources were being diverted to Iran, I believe they would be amenable to restart them.
Because “we are still at war with these countries,” Albukhaiti claimed Houthi forces “could also target US bases in the region,” particularly those associated with the coalition against Yemen, such as Saudi Arabia and the UAE.
In 2015, the Saudi-led coalition launched a year-long airstrikes campaign against the Houthis and Yemen’s internationally renowned government, militarily participating in the conflict. Saudi Arabia and the Houthis have not officially reached a resolution in Yemen, despite the fact that they have already ceased fighting there in 2022.
It had previously been attacked by Houthi. Houthi drone strikes on oil plants in Saudi Arabia resulted in a reduction of about 50% in Saudi oil production in 2019. According to analysts, the Saudis have worked hard ever since to prevent further attacks by maintaining more stable relations with the Houthis.
The detente may still be present if the Houthis decide to re-hit their northern neighbor in spite of these efforts.
Brumfield said, “I don’t believe that attacks on Saudi Arabia are off the table.” It’s possible that Houthi leaders would attack the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia as part of a general escalation in both the regional and Yemeni conflict if they prevail in favor of a military-first strategy.
Brumfield added that as the Houthis attempt to reach a resolution for the conflict in Yemen, they will also need to remember that Saudi Arabia has provided “diplomatic cover” for the Houthis in recent years. Saudi Arabia would likely abandon that strategy in the event of Houthi attacks.
Internal conflict
Anti-Houthi organizations in Yemen have been paying close attention to events over the past few months as a result of the Houthis’ initial US offensive and Iran’s weakening.
According to independent Yemen analyst Raiman Al-Hamdani, “the most the Houthis are] capable of doing is continuing their symbolic attacks on Israel or possibly restarting activity in the Red Sea,” However, doing so could lead to a new military stance from the US, Israel, and the UK, which might lessen their standing domestically and make room for anti-Houthi organizations to exploit any resulting instability.
However, according to analysts, the Yemeni government and other groups that are opposed to the Houthis are unable to effectively seize control of the Houthis.
The Houthis would likely respond if those groups mobilized, Albukhaiti said.
