The unfolding Israel-Iran conflict will “immensely” dominate the upcoming gathering of the leaders of the Group of Seven, not just because of the dangers of further escalation, but also because of the “sheer uncertainty” of United States policy under President Donald Trump, experts say.
The informal G7 grouping of the world’s seven advanced economies is set to meet from June 15 to 17 in Kananaskis, Alberta.
Holding the current presidency of the G7, Canada is hosting this year. While the agenda items will change in importance, depending on how things evolve in the Middle East, the latest crisis is already set to shift focus from what was expected to be a platform for host Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney to showcase his leadership at home and to a global audience.
The G7 countries include Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the United Kingdom and the United States, as well as the European Union. In addition, the host country typically invites the heads of a handful of other countries, usually because they are deemed important to global and economic affairs. Canada has invited India, Saudi Arabia, Ukraine along with a few others.
Carney is likely to have been hoping to avoid a repeat of the last time US President Donald Trump attended – also in Canada – in 2018. At the end of what was thought to be a successful gathering, Trump wrote on social media that he had directed his staff not to sign the final communique – the statement the G7 countries issue in a show of unity at the end of the summit – and left early, calling then-Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau “very dishonest and weak”.
But the communique is never signed, said Julia Kulik, director of strategic initiatives for the G7 Research Group at Trinity College at the University of Toronto, pointing to the incident as another instance of an unpredictable Trump.
This year there are already differences so no joint communique is expected and instead Carney is expected to issue a “chair’s summary” which will reflect on the events of the three days.
But Robert Rogowsky, professor of trade and economic diplomacy at the Middlebury Institute of International Studies, said there is no way G7 members can avoid the subject of the latest crisis in the Middle East, which was triggered by a massive Israeli assault on military and nuclear sites in Iran on early Friday morning – and has since prompted retaliatory strikes by Iran. The US said it was not involved in the Israeli strike on Iran, but Trump told reporters on Friday that it was informed of the attack in advance.
“That attack, counterattack, and the US declaration that it was not involved and its warning about staying away from American assets as targets is likely to be the first thing discussed, as it now creates the possibility of a real, all-out war in the Middle East. The major neighbouring parties will have to decide how to align themselves,” Rogowsky said.
A ‘crisis response’ group?
The G7 “was designed to be a crisis response group with the ability to act and adapt quickly to international challenges … so in some ways, it’s good they’re meeting this weekend as they’ll have the ability to respond quickly”, said Kulik.
Even before this latest flare-up, the G7 in its 51st year comes “at a hinge moment because of economic disruptions and but also because of geopolitical shifts,” said Vina Nadjibulla, vice president and head of research at the Asia Pacific Foundation of Canada. Nadjibulla was referring to the global tariffs unleashed earlier this year by Trump as well as a shifting foreign policy for the US under his leadership, with old alliances no longer cared for, as well as an “America First” message.
Against that backdrop, “Prime Minister Carney has been trying to meet the moment and be as purposeful as possible,” Nadjibulla added, pointing to the list of priorities Canada announced last week ahead of the summit.
That list focuses on strengthening global peace and security, including by countering foreign interference and transnational crime, as well as improving responses to wildfires; spurring economic growth by improving energy security, and bringing in public-private partnerships to spur investments.
The priorities announced, important domestically but also internationally, are a “testament” to Carney’s intentions, and “building the economy is front and centre”, said Nadjibulla.
Conversations on global peace would have focused on the Russia-Ukraine conflict and Israel’s war on Gaza but attention will now pivot to Iran, said Kulik, “and there will be tough questions from other leaders around the table to Donald Trump about what went wrong with the negotiations and about what he’s going to do to get Israel to de-escalate before things get worse”.
Trump is a ‘coin flip’
Experts were already on the lookout for flare-ups at the upcoming three-day event with the mercurial Trump in attendance.
“His reactions are very emotional and performative, so it could be any of those and that could decide the dynamics of the G7,” said Rogowsky. “If he comes in wanting to build some bridges, then it could be a success, but if he wants to make a point, and this is another world wrestling federation for him, then [it can go anywhere]. With Trump, it’s a coin flip.”
But despite the Iran-Israel face-off, the G7 will still be an opportunity for Carney to set the tone at a complex time of tariff wars and slowing domestic and global economies. He is also aware that Canada has to “up its political game” and find new ways of boosting its economy and security. That is particularly visible in the invitation to Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, as Canada has had diplomatic tensions with India over the 2023 killing of a Sikh leader on Canadian soil in the recent past.
This shows that Carney is aware that to make progress on his agenda items, he will “need to work with countries that you may have disagreements with, but you can’t let those issues dictate the big picture,” said Nadjibulla. “Carney is setting the stage for a consequential meeting.”
Rogowsky added: “Carney is a globalist and wants to allow Canada to become a force in unity, in a multilateral system. I see him as taking on a role as a bridge builder. Maybe he’s the one guy who can pull this off.”
At the same time, he said, “it will be interesting to see how the other leaders approach Trump. Will it be a case of kowtow to the ruler, or he’s the bully on the playground and we’re going to stand up to him.”
For Rogowsky, the “cayenne pepper” in the meeting is the expected presence of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, who was berated by Trump and US Vice President JD Vance in the White House on live television for not being “grateful” enough for US assistance.
