Donald Trump, the president of the United States, said on Sunday that he was “p***** off” with Vladimir Putin and that he would impose additional sanctions on the sale of Russian oil if he refused to ratify a ceasefire in Ukraine.
Trump’s attitude changed significantly since his first statement, which was made in January. He has been open to negotiations over peace with Moscow.
What Trump’s threat may involve, what it means, and why it is significant for Putin’s war on Ukraine and for Russian oil-sustaining nations.
Trump’s comments on Putin: what did they say?
Trump reportedly expressed his “p***** off” and “very angry” at Putin’s questioning of Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s legitimacy in an interview with NBC on Sunday.
According to Trump, any attempt to oust Zelenskyy as Ukraine’s leader would unavoidably make the situation less likely to end.
Trump did state that Putin was aware of his anger toward him. He claimed that Putin and he shared a “very good relationship” and that if he does what he says is right, the anger would quickly dissipate.
What was Zelenskyy’s fate, according to Putin?
According to Putin, Zelenskyy lacked the authority to sign a peace treaty.
Since the 2014 overthrow of Moscow-leaning President Viktor Yanukovych, who the Kremlin claims had US support, the Russian leader has frequently made accusations that the Ukrainian government is illegitimate.
Putin made the suggestion on Thursday that Ukraine should have a temporary administration under the auspices of the UN. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres of the UN rejected this suggestion.
In 2019, Zelenskyy sworn in for a five-year term as Ukraine’s president. Following Russia’s massive invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, a war broke out. Ukraine’s constitution prohibits holding elections under martial law conditions, and the country was supposed to have presidential elections in 2024, but the country has since been declared martial due to the conflict.
The American leader recently did the same thing when Trump has now criticized Putin for denying Zelenskyy’s legitimacy as Ukraine’s president.
In a post on his Truth Social platform in February, Trump called Zelenskyy “A Dictator without Elections” amid tensions with the Ukrainian leader,  .
How far along are diplomatic efforts to end the conflict in Ukraine?
Trump vowed to put an end to the Ukrainian conflict during his campaign for president.
US negotiating teams have met in Saudi Arabia more than once to discuss peace arrangements since he was inaugurated. Since then, Trump has spoken with Zelenskyy and Putin separately.
On March 25, the three sides came to a decision to stop using military force in the Black Sea. Additionally, they both agreed to put a 30-day stop to energy infrastructure in Russia and Ukraine. However, both sides have alleged that they are attacking energy facilities and have violated this.
A 30-day total ceasefire on land and sea has been agreed upon by Ukraine and the US, but it needs to be approved by Russia. Putin has not approved this proposal, citing concerns that Ukraine might use the time to arm itself, including with supplies of cutting-edge Western weapons, and recruit more soldiers in a country with a manpower shortage.
What threat did Trump make, and how will it be implemented?
If Trump finds Moscow to be accountable for failing to reach a ceasefire agreement, he has threatened “secondary tariffs” on Russian oil.
In a televised interview with NBC, Trump said, “I am going to put secondary tariffs on all oil coming from Russia” if Russia and I are unable to reach a resolution about stopping the bloodshed in Ukraine, which it might not be.
“You could not conduct business in the United States if you bought oil from Russia,” the statement read. A 25-point, 25-point, and 25-point tariff will be applied to all oil.
It’s unknown whether these threats will put pressure on Russia, according to Keir Giles, a senior consulting fellow at the Chatham House think tank in London.
Giles remarked that Trump’s sporadic threats to impose some sort of economic pressure on Russia “never last long,” adding that if Trump were to put pressure on Moscow rather than Kyiv, they would be a “radical departure” from his previous policy toward the conflict.
Giles remarked, “Putin knows that this threat is not dead, but the previous ones have been,” adding that.
Secondary tariffs: what are they?
Trump’s use of “secondary tariffs” implies tariffs on imports from nations that purchase Russian oil.
The US has long spearheaded campaigns involving what are known as secondary sanctions, which apply to nations that engage in trade with sanctioned nations. For instance, US sanctions are in place for purchasing Iranian oil or other heavy military equipment from Russia; this includes countries, businesses, and individuals who trade these goods.
Most global banks and financial institutions do not want to risk losing out on business in the US because of secondary US sanctions.
Secondary tariffs, in contrast, have not been thoroughly tested as a phenomenon. Trump also placed a 25% secondary tariff on US imports from nations that import Venezuelan oil and gas.
Which nations could be impacted by Trump’s secondary tariffs?
India and China could suffer the most from additional tariffs imposed by Trump on Russian oil.
The two biggest buyers of inexpensive Russian crude are China and India.
In 2024, Russian oil accounted for 35% of India’s total crude imports, while it accounted for 19% of China’s crude imports. Additionally, Turkey imports Russian oil, accounting for 58% of its refined petroleum imports in 2023.
How much would China, India, and Turkiye suffer from secondary tariffs?
It’s unclear whether Trump’s tariffs would be incorporated into existing tariffs or to be combined with those that are already in place.
China’s largest export market is located in the US. In 2024, China sold goods worth $463bn to the US. Trump has already imposed 20% tariffs on all Chinese imports.
India’s top export market is also the US. In the US, Indian exports surpassed $91 billion in 2024. Trump has, however, criticized India’s high import tariffs.
The exposure to Turkiye is comparatively low. After Germany, the US has the second-largest export market, accounting for $ 17 billion in 2024.
Trump has threatened reciprocal, tit-for-trade tariffs on all US trading partners starting on April 2.
And if Trump actually represses nations that purchase Russian oil, India in particular might find itself under scrutiny. Because of its longstanding accusations of buying subordinated Russian oil, refining it, and selling it to the West, India, which has 22 oil refineries, including Gujarat’s largest in Jamnagar, has long been accused of doing so, effectively assisting Moscow in thwarting Western sanctions.
According to data from the Observatory of Economic Complexity (OEC), India exported $55.8 billion worth of refined oil products like gasoline and diesel to nations like the US, the UK, France, and Belgium in 2023.
According to OEC data, India exports 7.5 percent of US oil as of 2023, trailing only behind Canada.
India has long argued that by purchasing Russian oil, it has freed up crude from other sources, including those from the Middle East and Africa, for Western countries to purchase, thereby regulating global oil prices. Every country would have to scramble for limited supplies of crude from elsewhere, which would increase prices if Russia, a major producer, were no longer available to anyone.
