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For the first time since Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine, the price of oil skyrocketed past $100 per barrel this week, driven by ongoing energy uncertainty after the United States and Israel’s war on Iran began on February 28.

About 20 percent of the world’s oil comes from the Gulf region, and most of it is shipped on massive tankers through the Strait of Hormuz. This narrow waterway, located between Iran and Oman, is only 21 nautical miles (39km) wide at its narrowest point.

More than 20 million barrels transit through the strait per day, which is one-fifth of global petroleum consumption and accounts for one-quarter of all oil traded by sea.

According to the US Energy Information Administration (EIA), more than three-quarters of the world’s oil supply (79.8 million barrels per day) travels by sea, funnelled through a handful of critical chokepoints with no easy transit alternatives.

Why are oil prices surging?

Since the Iran war began, marine traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has nearly ground to a halt. Attacks on vessels and interference with navigation equipment have pushed most operators to anchor their ships at the waterway’s edge rather than risk the crossing.

Without the flow of this oil, global supply chains are severely disrupted. With a limited supply and rising demand, prices are likely to increase, putting pressure on consumers and businesses.

While prices briefly dipped on Monday after US President Donald Trump said, “The war is very complete, pretty much,” analysts warned that high prices could persist if no agreement is reached between Washington, Tel Aviv and Tehran to stop the war.

“It’s all about risk,” Ismayil Jabiyev, supply chain analyst at CarbonChain, told Al Jazeera.

“Think about the Strait of Hormuz and cheap drones. It’s not a physical blockage – Iran hasn’t built a wall across the sea. Cheap drones will always pose a risk, even if all the launch sites are destroyed because hidden drone launches could continue for months. As long as hostilities continue, the disruption is likely to persist. I don’t see any real progress or resolution on the horizon,” Jabiyev added.

Which countries rely most on Middle Eastern oil?

About 89 percent of the oil that flows through the Strait of Hormuz is bound for Asian markets with China, India, Japan and South Korea the top buyers.

If traffic remains restricted, Gulf exporters will be forced to seek alternative routes, but options are limited with Saudi Aramco’s East-West Crude Oil Pipeline and the United Arab Emirates’s Abu Dhabi Crude Oil Pipeline (Habshan-Fujairah pipeline) offering a capacity of about 4.7 million barrels per day (bpd).

The Saudi pipeline runs from eastern oilfields to the port of Yanbu on the Red Sea, one of the few arteries that bypasses the strait entirely. However, of the 7.2 million bpd that Saudi Arabia exported in February, 6.38 million bpd relied on passage through the strait, according to Kpler, a global trade data and analytics firm.

Gavekal Research, an independent macroeconomic research firm, estimated that Gulf exporters, including Iran, could reroute at most an additional 3.5 million bpd to terminals outside the strait. But as long as the bulk of tanker traffic remains suspended, the world would still be facing a sudden supply shortfall of about 15 million bpd.

“I’m somewhat sceptical about those alternatives. Yes, the East-West pipeline and the Fujairah pipeline exist, but capacity-wise, they don’t come close to the main route.” Jabiyev told Al Jazeera.

“There’s also the Kirkuk-Ceyhan pipeline from Iraq’s northern provinces to Turkiye, but that’s limited to northern field production. The major Iraqi output comes from the southern fields, so again, it’s a partial replacement, not a full one.”

What is the highest oil price ever recorded?

Oil prices rose to their highest levels during the global financial crisis. On July 11, 2008, Brent crude, the European benchmark, hit $147.50 per barrel while West Texas intermediate crude, the US benchmark, hit a peak of $147.27. That spike was driven by a mix of a weakening US dollar and a massive influx of speculative money rather than a physical disruption to supply.

Throughout history, there have been a handful of energy market shocks when oil supplies were actually threatened, most notably the 1973 oil embargo, the Iran-Iraq War in the 1980s, the 1990-1991 Gulf War, the 2003 US-led invasion of Iraq and the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine.

“I think the Gulf War of 1990-91 is the most instructive comparison. Iraq and Kuwait together represented two major producers, and the disruption was serious and prolonged – lasting roughly half a year or more, even though the military phase was fairly brief,” Jabiyev told Al Jazeera.

“The world experienced high crude oil prices for an extended period and eventually faced some economic slowdown as a result. That makes it most analogous to our current situation: a likely long-term disruption, sustained high prices and a meaningful risk of economic slowdown. The key variable, as in 1990, was how quickly the affected countries could restore their production infrastructure and bring supply back online.”

How does crude oil become petrol?

Crude oil is a yellowish-black fossil fuel pumped from the ground and refined into fuels like petrol, diesel and jet fuel. The refining process also produces numerous household items.

Oil is graded by thickness and sulphur content. Light, sweet crude is low in sulphur and easy to refine and thus more valuable. After extraction, crude oil is sent to refineries where heat separates it into products. Lighter fuels form at lower temperatures while heavier products, such as asphalt, require much higher heat.

A barrel contains 159 litres, or 42 gallons, of crude oil. Once refined, a barrel typically produces about 73 litres, or 19.35 gallons, of petrol to power cars and trucks.

What products are made from oil and gas?

Oil and gas are used for far more than just fuel. They are raw materials for thousands of everyday products.

Plastics, including water bottles, food packaging, phone casings and medical syringes, are all derived from crude oil.

Crude oil is also the hidden ingredient in synthetic fabrics, such as polyester, nylon and acrylic, which is in everything from sportswear to carpets. It also underpins the cosmetics industry in products that include petroleum jelly, lipsticks and concealers.

Household items also rely on oil-based ingredients with laundry detergents, dishwashing liquids and paints all derived from petroleum products.

The global food supply is essentially built on natural gas in the form of fertilisers, used to enhance crop yields and ensure that food production can meet demand.

How high oil costs drive up the price of food

Oil prices and food prices move in lockstep with energy prices affecting every stage of the food supply chain from the fertilisers used in the fields to the trucks that carry food from the fields to supermarket shelves.

Rising oil prices directly affect shipping and the cost of transportation.

“The lifeblood of the global economy is transport,” economist David McWilliams told Al Jazeera. “It’s getting stuff from A to B. It’s a logistics problem, a supply chain problem, and ultimately, transportation is the energy of the global economy.”

Fears of stagflation – rising inflation and rising unemployment, which major oil shocks have historically summoned – are rising. Economists pointed to the crises of 1973, 1978 and 2008 as evidence that every significant spike in oil prices has been followed, in some form, by a global recession.

In lower-income countries, where populations spend a far greater share of their income on food and import large quantities of grain and fertiliser, rising oil prices could rapidly translate into food shortages.

United States President Donald Trump has said he is “thinking about taking over” the Strait of Hormuz so that it remains open. The strait links the Gulf to the Gulf of Oman. It is the only route to the open ocean for oil producers in the Gulf.

The war in Iran entered its 11th day on Tuesday, as attacks continue on Iran as well as on Israel and US assets in the Middle East, including in Bahrain, Kuwait, the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia.

The war has sent oil prices soaring. As well as attacking US military assets and infrastructure in Middle East countries in retaliation against the US-Israeli campaign, Iran has threatened to attack ships traversing through the Strait of Hormuz, putting the route at severe risk for about one-fifth of the world’s oil supply.

Why has the price of oil soared?

One major reason is the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.

Ebrahim Jabari, a senior adviser to the commander-in-chief of Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), said on March 2: “The strait is closed. If anyone tries to pass, the heroes of the Revolutionary Guard and the regular navy will set those ships ablaze.

“We will also attack oil pipelines and will not allow a single drop of oil to leave the region. Oil price will reach $200 in the coming days,” Jabari wrote in a post on the IRGC’s Telegram channel.

As a result, oil prices had shot up by more than 30 percent by Sunday, when the international benchmark Brent crude at one point topped $119 a barrel. The price of crude has since seen a decline, but remains above the price it was before the war began on February 28. On Tuesday, it was hovering around $93 a barrel.

Placing further pressure on fuel prices, Qatar’s state-run energy firm and the world’s largest producer of LNG, QatarEnergy, halted LNG production last week following Iranian attacks on its operational facilities in Ras Laffan and Mesaieed in Qatar.

Saudi Arabia shut down operations at the Ras Tanura plant, its largest domestic oil refinery, which is operated by Saudi Aramco, after a fire broke out at the facility, which officials said was caused by debris from the interception of two Iranian drones.

Iranian officials have publicly denied attacking QatarEnergy or Aramco.

The volatility in energy markets caused by the war on Iran will worsen over time, members of the industry have warned.

“There would be catastrophic consequences for the world’s oil markets, and the longer the disruption goes on, the more drastic the consequences for the global economy,” Aramco CEO Amin Nasser told reporters on Tuesday.

What has Trump said about the Strait of Hormuz?

During an interview with CBS News on Monday, Trump said he was “thinking about taking over” the Strait of Hormuz to ensure it remains open.

Trump also threatened to increase attacks on Iran if it disrupts the flow of oil in the Hormuz Strait.

“If Iran does anything that stops the flow of Oil within the Strait of Hormuz, they will be hit by the United States of America TWENTY TIMES HARDER than they have been hit thus far,” Trump said during a news conference in Florida on Monday.

“I will not allow a terrorist regime to hold the world hostage and attempt to stop the globe’s oil supply. And if Iran does anything to do that, they’ll get hit at a much, much harder level.”

Trump also said he expects the war to be over in a short amount of time.

Earlier on Monday, Trump told Republicans at his golf club in Doral, Florida: “We took a little excursion because we felt we had to do that to get rid of some people. We’ve already won in many ways, but we haven’t won enough.”

Earlier, Trump said that the war, which began on February 28, could last “four to five weeks” and that the US military had the “capability to go far longer than that”.

Can the US occupy the Strait of Hormuz?

During his CBS interview, Trump did not explain what the US plans for “taking over” the Strait would be. Technically, the US cannot “occupy” the strait, however.

Alexander Freeman, a partner in the shipping team at UK-based law firm Hill Dickinson, said: “The United States has no jurisdiction over the Strait of Hormuz, which are not international waters under UNCLOS [the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea]. Without the consent of Iran and Oman – whose sovereign territorial waters cover the Strait – the US taking over the Strait would likely amount to an incursion on Iran and Oman’s jurisdiction – even where it is aimed to protect the safe passage of vessels.”

In the absence of a ceasefire and the reopening of the strait, however, it is possible that ships could be escorted through the strait by US or international navies.

During an interview last week, Trump said the US Navy would escort ships in the waterway “if necessary… as soon as possible”.

In Florida, on Monday, Trump reiterated this, saying: “We’ll perhaps go alongside them for protection.”

Speaking in Cyprus on Monday, French President Emmanuel Macron said France and its allies are also preparing a “purely defensive” mission to escort vessels through the Strait of Hormuz once the “most intense phase” of the US-Israeli war on Iran ends.

Macron did not provide further details, but he said the “purely escort mission” must be prepared by both European and non-European countries.

How has Iran responded, and what is its strategy?

Iranian leaders have not shown any signs of backing down over the war or the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.

The country’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said on Tuesday that Iran would keep fighting for as long as necessary.

In an interview with CNN, Kamal Kharazi, foreign policy adviser to the office of the supreme leader, ruled out diplomacy and said the war would continue.

“I don’t see any room for diplomacy any more. Because Donald Trump had been deceiving others and not keeping with his promises, and we experienced this in two times of negotiations – that while we were engaged in negotiation, they struck us,” Kharazi said.

He suggested that Gulf and other countries need to place economic pressure on the US and Israel to end the war in Iran for diplomacy to be back on the table.

Rob Geist Pinfold, a lecturer in international security at King’s College London, told Al Jazeera that Iran has been engaging in a “completely different approach to war fighting” than in the past, when it seemed to opt for slow and steady escalation.

Pinfold said Iran’s claim that it is attacking only US assets in the Gulf “has to be taken with far more than a pinch of salt”. Iran’s targets are primarily large-scale infrastructure and civilian ones, he added.

“What they’re doing now is trying to unleash as much chaos as possible to destabilise the region and global markets, hurt the economy, hurt the GCC states, in order that the US will at some point decide that this conflict is no longer worth its while any more and will push for a ceasefire.”

What could happen next?

Scott Lucas, a professor of US and international politics at University College Dublin, told Al Jazeera that if the domestic situation worsens for Trump, there may be an opening for the Gulf states to ask for a pullback.

Lucas added that this would be “especially true” if there is another surge in the price of oil in the coming days.

Nuuk, Greenland – The snowmobile climbs fast alongside the cables of the ski lift. But the lift itself is not running.

Suddenly, the driver and manager of the ski lift, Qulu Heilmann, stops and walks over to the bare rocks on the mountain outside Nuuk, the Greenlandic capital.

“You can see it – there should be snow here. People should be skiing here,” he said, pointing at the rocky slope close to the city’s airport.

He has worked here for 25 years.

But this year, he experienced something unusual. The lift and slopes never opened. There simply has not been enough snow.

“I have never seen anything like it. It has never happened before,” he said.

Greenland’s warmest January

The stalled ski season comes after Greenland’s west coast recorded its warmest January ever, according to the Danish Meteorological Institute (DMI).

The DMI said the average temperature in Nuuk in January was 0.1 degrees Celsius (32.2 degrees Fahrenheit), a new record. That is 7.8C (14F) warmer than the January normal for 1991-2020. The highest temperature in Nuuk this January was 11.3C (52.3F).

A normal January day in Nuuk is often around minus 11C – not plus 11C.

The same pattern ran along more than 2,000km (1,240 miles) of the west coast as multiple towns posted unusually high monthly averages.

Caroline Drost Jensen, a DMI climatologist, told Al Jazeera that while mild winter spells happen in Greenland, what stood out this year was the sheer number of records.

“I have to say, I was taken aback,” she said. “I have never seen so many records at once. It was really striking, … very, very eye-catching.”

Drost Jensen said a jet stream steering mild air north towards Greenland was the immediate driver behind the warm January.

But she added that a generally warmer baseline – from human-driven climate change – can push temperatures higher on top of those weather patterns.

Malene Jensen, who lives in central Nuuk, said she has noticed the change.

“It’s been a weird winter,” she said.

Arctic warming faster

Scientists have long warned that the Arctic does not warm at the same pace as the rest of the planet.

Research in recent years has described Arctic warming at roughly three to four times higher than the global average, driven by feedbacks such as the loss of reflective snow and sea ice, which exposes darker ocean and land that absorb more heat.

At the closed ski slope, Heilmann has noticed the warming in the Greenlandic capital over the past couple of decades. He decided to apply to the local government for artificial snowmaking equipment.

“We never actually thought it would be necessary. But now it is our biggest wish. It’s necessary if we want to keep the ski lift open in the shoulder season. And this year it might have given us many ski days,” Heilmann said.

Normally, the season opens in December and ends in April. For a small ski hill that depends on natural snowfall and has no artificial snowmaking system, a winter like this is devastating.

“We are missing a metre at least,” Heilmann says, standing on bare rocks halfway up the small mountain.

‘This year has been frightening’

The climate story also feeds into politics because less ice changes access over time.

A longer ice-free season can make Arctic sea routes more usable and widen the window for activity on land, including exploration linked to strategic minerals, such as rare earths.

That longer-term shift is part of why Greenland has been getting more attention from Washington.

United States President Donald Trump has been pressing for US control of Greenland, repeatedly saying he wants the island to become US territory.

Ulrik Pram Gad, a senior researcher at the Danish Institute for International Studies, said the melting ice does not create “immediate worries” in Washington but does change the long-term map.

He said that in “two, three, four decades”, there may be “basically no polar sea ice left”, opening “a new maritime domain” the US will want to monitor.

Back on Nuuk’s hill, Heilmann is not talking about maritime domains. He is talking about whether enough snow arrives at all.

Lately, the cold seems to have returned to Greenland. But there is still no snow in sight.

As he turned the snowmobile back towards the base station, Heilmann returned to a question many people in Greenland are asking.