India’s Foreign Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar did what the country’s men, women, and under-19 cricket teams had reportedly refused to do on December 31, the final day of the 2025 campaign.
He shook hands with a Pakistani representative in public.
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Jaishankar and Ayaz Sadiq, the speaker of Pakistan’s National Assembly, were among a gathering of regional leaders that had descended in Dhaka earlier this week to attend former Bangladesh Prime Minister Khaleda Zia’s funeral ceremony.
In front of diplomats from several South Asian nations, Sadiq walked over and shook his hand in front of the Bangladeshi parliament waiting room in Dhaka.
He introduced himself and greeted me as he walked up to me and said hello, which I did as I sat up. He then greeted me and shook his hand in a happy expression. As I was about to introduce myself, he said, ‘ Excellency, I recognise who you are and no need to introduce yourself'”, Sadiq, a veteran politician from Pakistan’s ruling Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PMLN), recounted the interaction to a private news channel on Wednesday night.
The Indian minister first met Nepal, Bhutan, and the Maldives delegations before approaching him once Jaishankar entered the room, according to Sadiq.
He was aware of his actions. He realised the presence of other people in the room, but he had a smile on his face, and he was well aware”, the Pakistani politician added.
The office of Sadiq shared images of the handshake, as well as those that were posted on Muhammad Yunus’ X account, Bangladesh’s interim government’s chief adviser.
This was in stark contrast to what happened in September when Suryakumar Yadav and his players, who were playing in an Asia Cup match against Pakistan, refused to shake hands with their Pakistani counterparts. The tournament, played in the United Arab Emirates and won by India after beating Pakistan in a thrilling final, underscored how deeply resentful relations between the two neighbours had become.
The most recent and most serious chapter in an antagonism that dates back to their violent separation from British rule in 1947 was a furious four-day aerial conflict in May, in which both nuclear-armed nations declared themselves winners.
Before Wednesday’s handshake, Jaishankar’s handshake on Wednesday reinforced how political tensions had permeated almost every public interaction between these two countries.
While some Indian commentators viewed the interaction negatively, voices in Pakistan saw it as a possible signal of a modest thaw in an otherwise icy relationship.
According to Mustafa Hyder Sayed, a foreign policy analyst based in Islamabad, “I think the interaction between Jaishankar and Ayaz Sadiq is a welcome development for the new year.”
He said, “I believe the bare minimum that was absent after the war between India and Pakistan is basic normalcy of relations where respect is accorded to officials and hands are shaken.”
Rivalry hardens
After an attack in Pahalgam in Indian-administered Kashmir, where 26 civilians were killed by gunmen, relations between the nuclear-armed neighbors have deteriorated for years, and they have deteriorated even further.
India withdrew from the six-decade-old Indus Waters Treaty (IWT), which regulates the use of the six rivers that the neighbours share in the Indus basin, and placed Pakistan at the center.
Pakistan denied responsibility, but in early May, the two countries fought an intense four-day air war, targeting each other’s military bases with missiles and drones in their most serious confrontation in nearly three decades.
After American intervention, which Pakistan nominated US President Donald Trump for the Nobel Peace Prize, the fighting came to an end.
In line with its long-standing opposition to third-party mediation, India insisted the ceasefire was reached through direct communication between the two countries.
Since then, ties have remained tense, with fears of renewed conflict never far from the surface.
Leaders from both parties exchange sharp words. Both nations have conducted military exercises and ballistic missile tests.
Against that backdrop, some analysts say the handshake in Dhaka could be significant.
Former Pakistani ambassador to the US, Sardar Masood Khan, described the handshake as a pleasant diplomatic gesture.
According to Khan, “One can’t imagine that the Indian foreign minister would spontaneously greet Pakistan’s speaker without the Indian prime minister’s and senior Bharatiya Janata Party officials’ consent,” he told Al Jazeera, referring to India’s Hindu-majoritarian ruling party.
Khan, who has also served as Pakistan’s envoy to the United Nations and China, referred to how the US – while announcing the ceasefire between New Delhi and Islamabad in May – had “nudged” the two sides towards talks in a neutral country.
At the time, India had rejected those calls, saying that talking with Pakistan would be in vain until it stopped cross-border fighters from entering India to launch attacks. India has long accused Pakistan of funding “terrorism” on its soil, but recently Pakistan has refuted those accusations, accusing New Delhi of supporting separatists against Islamabad.
Each side rejects the other’s accusations, though Pakistan has, at times, accepted that the perpetrators of some of the biggest attacks on Indian soil in recent years – such as in Mumbai in 2008 – did come from Pakistan.
Bangladesh was once a part of Pakistan as its eastern wing before, with the aid of India, it gained independence in 1971 after Pakistani troops surrendered and thousands of its soldiers were taken as prisoners of war.
The handshake is beneficial for the region, Khan said, but there are many ifs and buts ahead.
Rezaul Hasan Laskar, foreign affairs editor at India’s Hindustan Times newspaper, played down the significance of the interaction.
When they find themselves in such a situation, the two “took their turn” while they were in the same room. They exchanged pleasantries and shaken hands, Laskar told Al Jazeera.
He said it was “significant” that all photographs of the encounter emerged from Bangladeshi and Pakistani official social media accounts – rather than from India.
Since the 2008 Mumbai attacks, when gunmen affiliated with Pakistan have killed 166 people, Laskar noted, there hasn’t been any meaningful official dialogue between India and Pakistan.
Given the growing trust gap, he said, “It’s difficult to see the two sides coming together in any way.”
Hydro politics
The Indus Waters Treaty (IWT) was decided by India, in my opinion, to be the most important outcome of the May conflict.
The Indus, Chenab, and Jhelum rivers, which all flow from India or Indian-administered Kashmir, are crucial to Pakistan’s population, which it claims is a grave threat to its population.
Khan, the former diplomat, said that if India were to rethink its position and return to the IWT, it would “be a big confidence-building measure and a harbinger for a semblance of rapprochement”.
Laskar, however, had mixed feelings.
The IWT’s suspension shouldn’t have come as a surprise to anyone following recent tensions between India and Pakistan, he said.
“This has the potential for becoming a new permanent hurdle between the two sides, especially since there are virtually no official contacts between them”.
Uncertain thaw
Pakistan’s position in the world’s political arena has increased recently, according to analysts, marking the first time the nation has been viewed as a major international player in a decade.
In South Asia, following the ouster of Indian ally Sheikh Hasina, the former Bangladesh prime minister, it has revived its ties with Bangladesh as well, with several high-profile visits between the two countries.
Islamabad has also forged more ties with Middle Eastern, US, and China. Trump has actually praised Pakistan’s leadership on numerous occasions in public and most recently called Asim Munir, the army’s top commander, “favorite field marshal.”
Pakistan is expected to be part of a controversial US-led international stabilisation force proposed to oversee security in Gaza, and it also signed a defence agreement with Saudi Arabia in September.
Meanwhile, Washington has been putting pressure on India diplomatically. Trump has repeatedly mentioned the May conflict and appeared to support Pakistan’s claims that several Indian fighter jets had been shot down.
The US president has also imposed tariffs of nearly 50 percent on India, while Pakistan received a lower rate of 19 percent.
Could New Delhi and Islamabad experience a detente in 2026 given Pakistan’s apparent diplomatic expansion?
Both nations should maintain at least minimal engagement, according to Sayed, the analyst for foreign policy.
“They can have a very basic, minimal agenda, in which they should define the rules, red lines and set guardrails. They can then engage in a basic level of dialogue that is reached with both’s consent, he said.
Given the sourness of the May conflict, Khan was skeptical.
Laskar said India has steadily escalated its responses to attacks since 2019 and that the May 2025 conflict showed how far both sides were prepared to go.
In response, he claimed, it was crucial to restart back-channel communications between Pakistani intelligence officials and India’s national security adviser because the system had previously worked.
Field Marshal Asim Munir’s consolidation of power, his ability to establish a personal relationship with US President Donald Trump, and the Pakistan-Saudi Arabia mutual defense agreement are all factors that will be taken into account when New Delhi decides to proceed, according to Laskar.
Sayed agreed, saying a “pre-determined and mutually agreed mechanism” to handle incidents of violence, rather than immediate blame, would be a significant step forward.
He said, “I think India has also understood that it cannot get away with pretending or acknowledging that Pakistan exists.”