234Radio

By Brendan Mackey

There is hope that countries will finally come to an agreement on a roadmap to eliminate fossil fuels as the COP30 negotiations in Belem progress toward their goal of keeping 1.5C alive. One significant roadblock to that roadmap, which could undermine Brazil’s progress, is still missing, and that is the military’s carbon emissions.

Governments are obligated to report their militaries’ emissions under the Paris Agreement, but the majority of the time don’t. The Military Emissions Gap project’s most recent analysis revealed that the available data is inconsistent, inconsistent, or completely missing. The “military emissions gap” is a gap between what is widely known about military pollution and what is actually happening. The outcome is shocking: militaries remain largely unaffected in the Belem negotiations, leading to a perilous blind spot for global climate change.

That blind spot’s size is astounding. An estimated 5.5% of all global emissions is made up of soldiers. As defense spending rises while the rest of society decarbonizes, this share is projected to increase even further. Armees would be the fifth-largest emitter on Earth, ahead of Russia by 5 percent, if they were a nation. Only five nations adhere to the UNFCCC’s voluntary reporting requirements for military emissions, which only apply to fuel use. The reality is much wider: there are no mention of fugitive emissions from refrigeration, air conditioning, radar, and other equipment, but there are still munitions production and disposal, waste management, and other issues. Additionally, there are significant gaps in both climate accountability and action because operations in international waters and airspace are not even remotely reported.

When we consider the effects of armed conflicts on the environment, the military’s emissions gap expands even further. As if fighting wars alone did not end ecosystems, leave toxic soils for decades to come, and cause significant CO2 emissions, including from rebuilding efforts that included the destruction of buildings and infrastructure, as if the horror and suffering from fighting wars were not enough. These additional emissions run the risk of going unreported because there is no internationally recognized framework to measure conflict emissions, which would mean that we don’t know how many wars are halting global warming.

Despite this, accountability momentum is finally gaining. Before COP30, protesters and civil society organizations in Belem are urging the UNFCCC to address this long-ignored source of pollution. Nearly 100 organizations have signed the pledges. Politicians are also beginning to change. Although rapid rearmament is currently putting pressure on the European Union, the defense sector has made progress toward more transparent reporting and decarbonization. These pledges, combined with NATO’s new goal to spend 5% of GDP on militaries, could result in up to 200 million tonnes of CO2 and cause up to $ 2998 billion in climate damage annually, putting Europe’s own climate goals in jeopardy.

The need for accountability is reinforced by international law. According to the recent landmark advisory opinion from the International Court of Justice, states are required to assess, report, and mitigate harms, including those brought on by armed conflict and military action, under the terms of international agreements. Global warming is understated by these emissions, but doing so also undermines the scale of the crisis and weakens global ability to address its root causes.

The current emissions-reduction plans are in such a disarray that they do not meet the 1.5C limit. What will happen next if the COP30 negotiators reach an agreement on a plan to phase out fossil fuels, and whether it will lead to real progress or just symbolic change? Military emissions cannot continue to be hidden, and no industry can be exempt from climate change.

It is necessary to report all military emissions to the UNFCCC, starting with combat and training, and ending any long-lasting climate damage that communities may experience. That information must serve as the foundation for national climate plans that are urgent, science-aligned, and in line with the 1.5C limit.

The climate cannot be compromised by security. Our collective safety and the survival of our planet are now a top priority.