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In light of the Labour Party’s leadership and the country’s poor public finances, the United Kingdom’s annual budget is scheduled to be released on Wednesday.

Despite keeping a number of pledges, UK Chancellor Rachel Reeves has the difficult task of keeping the public finances in order while maintaining a number of them, leaving her with little room for discretion in terms of taxes and spending.

Reeves will face what a leading think tank has called an “impossible trilemma,” leaving her with no choice but to compromise on her plans.

Why is the UK government facing such a challenge with this budget?

Years of struggle have been a result of the UK’s slow economic growth, high inflation, and national debt that is rapidly rising.

The Group of Seven (G7) nations’ economies have had the worst economic performance since COVID, with the UK having the worst performance after Germany.

According to government data, GDP increased by just 1.7 percent between the end of 2019 and the start of 2024, compared to 8.7 percent in the US, 5.1 percent in Canada, and 4.6 percent in Italy.

Even though Labour won the election in July last year with a landslide victory, economic conditions still remain challenging.

The UK is on track to become the G7’s best performer after the US, but growth slowed to a meager 0.1% in the quarter that ended in September despite a strong start to the year.

The interest rate on long-term government bonds increased in the UK, reaching its highest level in nearly 30 years in September, leading to a rise in borrowing costs.

To bridge the gap between tax revenues and spending, the UK government took out 17.4 billion pounds ($1 billion) in October alone.

Reeves’ self-imposed pledges have made the already challenging task of drafting her budget more challenging, as her Labour Party campaigned against spending cuts after years of austerity policies under the Conservatives.

Reeves’ “fiscal rules” require that the exchequer maintain a balance between daily spending and the reduction of the country’s debt by 2029-30, without increasing income taxes, VAT, or national insurance.

Reeves casts her budget as a one-time injection of pain needed to keep the government’s finances on an even keel, raising taxes by about 40 billion pounds ($52.66 billion) in the most recent year’s budget.

Reeves has once more found herself with a significant deficit between spending and revenues as a result of the rising cost of government borrowing.

Reeves would need to find another 41.2 billion pounds to meet her goals, according to a top think tank called the National Institute of Economic and Social Research, which estimated earlier this year. This would leave her with the “impossible trilemma” of higher taxes, decreased spending, or changed fiscal rules.

The fiscal “black hole” is estimated to be closer to 20 billion pounds ($26. 3 billion), including more recent assessments based on improved economic data.

According to Jasper Kenter, an economics professor at Aberystwyth University in Wales, “I do think it is a particularly challenging budget because the government is caught between their commitments to avoid severe cuts to public services, not raising taxes on working people, and self-imposed fiscal rules and a jittery bond market.”

They also have significant hangovers from the previous government, which abruptly cut national insurance taxes just before they left as a failed electoral stunt.

Reeves is expected to announce other revenue-raising measures, including a tax on properties worth more than $2. 6 million ($2.6 million) and a freeze on adjustments to the income tax thresholds, after backtracking on a tax increase that would have violated Labour’s manifesto pledge.

Labour’s popularity in the weeks leading up to the budget has fallen far behind the right-wing populist Reform UK.

Reeves, an economics professor at the University of Liverpool, claimed that the budget’s conflicting signals contributed to the UK’s economic problems.

According to Milas, “investors are unwilling to invest in the economy until they see what economic measures she will actually put in place.”

Consumers are concerned about what additional taxes they will have to pay, at least until they see what that means.

Why has the UK economy recently experienced a slump?

Some of the issues with the UK are caused by factors like falling birth rates and rising welfare costs, which are common in almost all developed economies.

The UK has a long history of low labor productivity growth, which is more significant than many of its peers.

The UK ranked fourth among the G7 countries in terms of labor productivity (GDP per hour worked) in 2023.

However, productivity has fallen in recent years, leaving it trailing behind its peers.

According to OECD data, the UK’s GDP per hour increased by only about 6% between 2007 and 2022, compared to 17% in the US, 12 percent in Japan, and 11 percent in Germany.

According to economists, austerity measures introduced in the wake of the global financial crisis in 2007-2008 led to years of persistent underinvestment.

In contrast to the 23% of GDP in Japan, 23% in France, and 21% in the US, PwC’s analysis of World Bank data shows that the UK invested in the country between 2017 and 2021, compared to 23% of GDP in Japan, and 21% in France.

The post-financial crisis trend has been largely caused by Brexit, which has been blamed on.

According to the UK’s Office for Budget Responsibility, its exit from the bloc will result in a 4 percent drop in long-term productivity.

The UK must address long-term structural issues, according to Jonathan Daniel Portes, an economist at King’s College London, by implementing “pro-growth tax reform” and “reversing anti-growth policies on immigration and universities.”

No significant tax reform is anticipated, despite my expectation of significant tax increases. Portes described his expectations for the budget as “I don’t think it will make a big difference.”

The UK could benefit from experimenting with the tax system, according to Michael Ben-Gad, a professor of economics at City St George’s University of London. However, it won’t be able to avoid long-term welfare state reforms.

According to Ben-Gad, “Pay-as-you-go national pension plans were created to accommodate a growing population or at least one that was stable.”

Senator Mark Kelly’s video, in which he and other Democrats urged soldiers to disobey “illegal orders,” has the attention of the US Department of Defense.

The video was made public last week. Kelly, Representatives Chris Deluzio and Chrissy Houlahan of Pennsylvania, New Hampshire’s Representative Jason Crow, Colorado’s Representative Jason Crow, and Michigan’s Senator Elissa Slotkin are among the six Democratic lawmakers who have previously held positions in the military and intelligence services.

In a post that came with the video, Slotkin stated on X that they wanted to “interview directly with members of the military and the intelligence community.”

You must defend our Constitution and our laws, according to the American people. Don’t abandon the ship, Slotkin remarked.

Members of the military and the intelligence community are our first priority.

You must defend our Constitution and our laws, American people.

Don’t abandon the ship. pic. twitter.com/N8lW0EpQ7r

The lawmakers claimed in the video that the public’s trust in US intelligence and military services was “in danger.”

The lawmakers claimed that the administration is pitting American professionals in the intelligence and military branches.

You all swore an oath to defend and protect this constitution, just like us. The video continued, “The threats to our constitution are right here at home right now not just coming from abroad.”

You can reject unlawful orders, according to our laws.

The Pentagon has opened an investigation into Kelly’s alleged breaches of military law, which is an unusual move against retired military personnel, in response to the video.

The US Army Manual for Courts-Martial states that “an order requiring the performance of a military duty or act may be inferred to be lawful and it is disobeyed at the risk of the subordinate.”

However, that inference does not apply if an officer gives an order that is “patently illegal,” such as ordering the commission of a crime, or is in contravention of the constitution or US law.

Everything we know is presented here:

Mark Kelly, who is he?

Former senior navy officer and pilot who participated in combat missions during the first Gulf War, the Arizona senator.

Kelly took up spaceflight in 2001 and completed four space shuttle missions, two of which were in the capacity of astronaut.

Kelly retired in 2011, moving her rank to the lower rear admiral.

Kelly completed Republican Senator John McCain’s death in his first Senate campaign in 2020. Kelly was re-elected to a full term two years later. He has focused on the military and national security in the Senate.

Is Kelly’s assertion regarding “illegal orders” accurate?

Bruce Fein, a lawyer with a focus on international and constitutional law and who previously served as the Department of Justice’s Associate Deputy Attorney General, said Kelly was “simply echoing the law.”

For instance, a member of the US armed forces is required to disobey a superior’s order, which is obviously illegal. No “following orders” defense exists, Fein claimed.

Lt. William Calley was found guilty of war crimes in the Vietnami civilian massacre of 1968. His “following orders” defense was rejected, he continued.

The Pentagon investigation’s then, what’s the deal?

The Pentagon claimed in a statement that was posted on X on Monday that it had received “serious allegations of misconduct” against Kelly, implying that the video had violated the “loyalty, morale, or good order and discipline of the armed forces.”

Further actions have been initiated, including the recall to active duty for court-martial proceedings or administrative measures, according to the statement. According to the statement, “This matter will be handled in accordance with military law, ensuring due process and impartiality.”

“All service members are urged to obey lawful orders and that they are obligated by the UCMJ [Uniform Code of Military Justice] to do so. The personal philosophy of a service member does not support or justify disobeying a lawful order, it continued.

Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth stated on X that the “seditious six” lawmakers in the video were “despicable, reckless, and false” the same day.

Every aspect of “good order and discipline” is undermined by encouraging our warriors to ignore their commanders. Their foolish screed only encourages doubt and confusion, Hegseth said, adding that only Kelly falls under the purview of the Department of Defense.

Hegseth said Kelly’s actions “discredit the armed forces and will be handled appropriately.”

Kelly is the only lawmaker to have formally retired from the military, which means he can still be called back on active duty or face a court martial for misconduct. All six of the lawmakers served in the military or intelligence agencies.

What has Kelly said about the course of his actions?

Kelly claimed to have “sworn an oath to the Constitution in 1986” in a post on X on Monday.

“I’ve upheld it every day since I retired after 25 years of service.” It won’t work if [President Donald] Trump is attempting to intimidate me. Bullies who care more about power than the Constitution have silenced my country because I gave too much, he claimed.

In a post last week, Kelly claimed that his country “had a missile blow up next to my airplane, been shot at numerous times by anti-aircraft fire, and been launched into orbit.”

Never did I anticipate a President ordering my execution, “. Trump argued that the Constitution is unintelligible, and that everyone is safer for it.

Trump’s statement: what?

The president claimed that the video was “really bad, and Dangerous to our Country” in a post last week on Truth Social.

“SEDITIOUS BEHAVIOR FROM TRAITORS!!” he stated. Trump stated in a separate post that it was “SEDITIOUS BEHAVIOR, punishable by DEATH.”

Trump, however, claimed that he wasn’t threatening death and that the Democrats were in “serious trouble” the day after his comments.

When asked how far the Trump administration could actually pursue its investigation or charge against Kelly, Fein responded that it could “harass Kelly with a spurious investigation or charge.”

Why is this the focus of the Trump administration?

The video sparks outrage as the US military strikes ships suspected of carrying drugs by the Trump administration.

At least 83 people have died as a result of the strikes in the Caribbean Sea and Pacific Ocean.

Democrats on the Senate Judiciary Committee requested at the end of October that the DOJ provide all legal advice regarding the legality of military strikes.

In a letter to Attorney General Pam Bondi that the Reuters news agency saw, they wrote that “summarily killing criminal suspects is prohibited under domestic and international law both during peacetime and during wartime.”

However, a DOJ memo stated that killings committed by service members could not be brought to justice.

A long-inactive volcano in northern Ethiopia unexpectedly erupted on Sunday, sending up plumes of volcanic ash and dust, which have since spread across continents and disrupted flights in India and the United Arab Emirates.

No casualties were reported in Ethiopia following the eruption, but local government officials told reporters they are concerned about the impact of the eruption on local communities and their livestock in the Afar region, where the volcano is located.

Ethiopia has 50 known volcanoes, according to the Smithsonian, several of which have been dormant for thousands of years.

The Ethiopian Rift Valley, where many of the volcanoes are located, extends from Afar southwards through neighbouring countries. It was formed by shifting tectonic plates, which pulled apart to form the land masses of Africa and Arabia, and is one of the most important geological sites in the world.

Here’s what we know about Sunday’s volcanic eruption and its local and international impact:

What happened?

Hayli Gubbi, which forms part of the Erta Ale volcano range in the northern Afar Region of Ethiopia, erupted at approximately 11:30am local time (08:30 GMT) according to an advisory issued by the Toulouse Volcanic Ash Advisory Center (VAAC) in France.

Following the eruption, residents told reporters they had noticed faint smoke from the volcano about three days before. However, there were no reported scientific forecasts for the eruption.

The volcano has not previously erupted in the current Holocene Era, which began about 12,000 years ago at the end of the Ice Age, according to the Smithsonian Institution’s Global Volcanism Program.

Satellite imagery shared on social media channels shows the eruption as viewed from space, with a mass of billowing ash shooting up and visibly spreading east towards the Red Sea. Footage captured from the ground also showed huge mountains of ash rising into the skies above the mountain range, blanketing the horizon.

VAAC reported that the massive waves of volcanic ash plumes emitted rose to about 45,000 metres (148,000 feet) in height at the time of the eruption, and that the ash moved primarily in a northwesterly direction.

Hayli Gubbi volcano in Ethiopia has erupted for the first time in thousands of years🌋

Satellite images from @CopernicusEU Sentinel-5P (left) and @eumetsat’s Meteosat-12 (right) captured the ash plume spreading across the region. pic.twitter.com/ynG1zVAV3v

How have local communities been affected?

Local media in Ethiopia have reported that plumes of ash blanketed the areas around the volcano, including hilly villages which are well-known tourist attraction sites. In the neighbouring village of Afdera, one resident told The Associated Press he had heard a loud sound as the eruption occurred.

“It felt like a sudden bomb had been thrown with smoke and ash,” Ahmed Abdela told The AP. He added that by Monday, the village was still covered in ash, and that tourists and guides heading to the nearby Danakil Desert were stranded.

Afar TV reported that vibrations and moderate tremors were felt in Ethiopia’s Wollo area, in the northern Tigray region, and as far away as in the neighbouring country of Djibouti.

In the immediate aftermath of the eruption, dark smoke, rather than white ash, enveloped the area, plunging it into near-darkness, residents said.

There are concerns about how the eruption has affected air quality in the nearby villages.

Local administrator Mohammed Seid also told The AP the eruption could have economic implications for the local community, where most are livestock herders and depend on forage – plants eaten by animals – for their livestock. Much of this is now covered with a thick layer of dust. “While no human lives and livestock have been lost so far, many villages have been covered in ash, and as a result, their animals have little to eat,” he said.

What do we know about the Hayli Gubbi volcano?

Hayli Gubbi, a shield volcano – named so because it has a low profile and resembles a shield when viewed from above – is located about 800km (500 miles) northeast of Addis Ababa, Ethiopia’s capital city.

Hayli Gubbi, which rises to 500 metres (1,640 feet), is the southernmost volcano of the Erta Ale Range, a chain of low-lying shield volcanoes in the Afar region. It has had no known eruptions for 12,000 years.

Erte Ale volcano, one of Ethiopia’s most active, is also located within this range, which itself is set in the Rift Valley. Erte Ale, whose name means “smoking mountain” in Afar, last overflowed with lava in January 2023, according to The Smithsonian Institution’s Global Volcanism Program.

Where has the ash travelled and how have flights been affected?

Clouds of ash have travelled across the Red Sea, first over Yemen and Oman, and then on to Pakistan and India, according to monitoring website Flightradar24.

Volcanic ash clouds contain abrasive particles which can enter and damage aircraft engines, contaminate airfields, and reduce visibility, making flying hazardous.

Current (black) and forecasted (green +6hr , yellow +12, red +18) ash cloud observations from today’s eruption of Hayli Gubbi volcano in northern Ethiopia. pic.twitter.com/96vtwvLD20

The eruption has, therefore, caused widespread travel disruption in neighbouring countries and continents, although there are so far no reports of flight delays in Ethiopia, which is one of Africa’s biggest flight hubs.

India

In India, the ash had reached the Western Rajasthan region by Monday evening and then moved northeast, according to local newspaper The Hindu.

The ash prompted several airlines, including national carrier Air India, IndiGo and Akasa, as well as Dutch carrier KLM, to cancel their flights as a precaution. Air India cancelled 11 flights on Monday and Tuesday while Akasa scrapped flights scheduled on the same day to Jeddah, Kuwait and Abu Dhabi, according to the Reuters news agency.

The country’s Directorate General of Civil Aviation (DGCA) issued advisories on Monday urging airlines to avoid affected altitudes and regions, and warning that volcanic ash could harm aircraft engines, according to The Hindu.

The agency also advised airlines to conduct precautionary checks on aircraft which had already flown over affected routes, and to report any suspected impact of ash on engine performance, or any smoke or odours in the cabin. Airports were also ordered to inspect runways for contamination.

The plumes have reportedly spread across the states of Rajasthan, Maharashtra, Delhi, Haryana, and Punjab. India is expected to have clear skies by 14:00 GMT on Tuesday as the ash cloud moves towards China, according to the India Meteorological Department (IMD).

Pakistan

In Pakistan, the country’s meteorological service reported that the ash cloud was seen 60 nautical miles (111km) south of the port city of Gwadar on Monday, according to local newspaper Dawn.

Gulf

Air Arabia cancelled several flights from Sharjah, UAE, on Tuesday.

In Oman, the Environment Authority activated its emergency response to monitor the ash clouds but reported no immediate impact on air quality, according to Times of Oman.

When have volcanic eruptions caused travel chaos in the past?

Severe volcanic ash eruptions that lead to widespread disruptions like this one have been rare.

The last reported incident was in 2010, when the Eyjafjallajokull volcano in Iceland erupted continuously between March and June, sending plumes of volcanic ash over swaths of Scandinavia, the UK and other European countries. The eruption ejected ash up to 11km (seven miles) into the atmosphere. That ash had small, sharp particles of glacial debris because the eruption had occurred beneath glacial ice. 

In April that year, the UK was forced to close down its entire airspace for six days, during which time some 95,000 flights were cancelled. According to the Center for Economics and Business Research, the UK airline industry lost $1.45bn during the prolonged shutdown. Spain, Portugal, Italy, Austria and Germany were also forced to close airspace in May.

Thanks to new security measures, the streets of Somalia’s capital Mogadishu are now bustling and open for business. However, Catherine Soi from Al Jazeera discovered that every checkpoint and patrol serve as reminders of a city that is still under constant threat of al-Shabab.

Members of the UN Security Council urged Israel to follow the ceasefire and bolster border crossings to lessen Gaza’s severe humanitarian crisis. Palestinians claim that their access to food, water, and shelter is still difficult because aid flows are still far below what is required.