In Yemen’s already complex theater, political and military signals have gotten stronger. In an unusually short period of time, three successive statements were issued within a single context, beginning with an official Yemeni request from President Rashad al-Alimi, the head of Yemen’s Presidential Leadership Council, the governing body of the internationally recognised government. The Saudi-led coalition then issued a political message to the minister of defense, which sets out the steps being taken and the course of action they will take.
What transpired is neither a routine truce nor an isolated incident. The sequence suggests an arrangement that uses Yemeni legitimacy as the political framework for a Saudi move aimed at restraining the expansion of an ally advancing eastward, while at the same time reducing the Houthis ‘ chances of exploiting any rift within the opposing camp. The three statements’ weight exceeded the words of their respective statements, which moved the situation from an open tug-of-war to a clear path based on a field response, an official request, and finally a political message that establishes the limits of movement and sets its course.
The east and the west, why?
The names of Yemen’s governorates may seem like marginal details to a non-Arab reader, but Hadramout and al-Mahra are exceptions. With its oil and gas resources and related infrastructure, Hadramout contributes to Yemen’s economic development and is a key border crossing with Saudi Arabia, which contributes to both border security and trade. Al-Mahra controls ports, crossings, and movement routes that have an impact on regional security and the local economy because it borders Oman and Saudi Arabia. This location makes any tension in the east a quintessential border issue, not merely a local crisis, and any large-scale instability there will not remain confined within Yemen, as it impacts the country’s economy, raises border sensitivity within the region, and stirs concerns about the stability of trade routes.
Riyadh sees the east as a place where it strives to avoid chaos because of this. With the emergence of the Southern Transitional Council (STC), which is supported by the United Arab Emirates, and its forces in Hadramout and al-Mahra, the conflict has become a direct question of who has the authority to manage security and resources in areas that cannot support a protracted conflict.
The first step came through a statement attributed to a government source about a request by the chairman of the Presidential Leadership Council to take military measures to protect civilians in Hadramout and support the armed forces in imposing calm. The significance of this phrase is that it elevates the conflict from being one of conflict between forces within the same camp (the STC is a member of the Presidential Leadership Council), causing the supporting partner to take legal action.
In response to a request from the head of a recognized international governing body, the coalition has a clearer political justification for its intervention. Internally, the request sends a message no less important, as the presidency does not want to become a mere facade covering up imposed facts, and it seeks to affirm the idea that controlling the field happens through the state, even if it seeks regional support to achieve that.
The coalition issued a second statement, which urgently demanded that the STC step down from Hadramout and al-Mahra, hand over camps to the “Nation’s Shield,” and issue a warning against engaging directly in military operations that would otherwise be in conflict with de-escalation efforts. This text provides executive instructions, including those for escalation, handover, and reinstating the local authority.
The mention of the “Homeland Shield” forces in the statement is striking because the coalition is not merely calling for vacating positions, but is also proposing an alternative party to take them over. Riyadh can manage the eastern file without resorting to the logic of multiple forces, which lowers the likelihood of a security vacuum. The phrase “direct engagement” is the most explicit warning, because it raises the price of any attempt to forcefully impose a new reality on the coalition or test its limits.
The third statement by Saudi Defence Minister Prince Khalid bin Salman Al Saud, addressed primarily to the Yemeni people, affirmed that the kingdom’s intervention came in response to a request from the legitimate government and in support of restoring the state and preserving Yemen’s security. The “Southern issue” was included in the political solution pipeline through the Riyadh Conference and Riyadh Agreement, ensuring southern participation in governance, and it was emphasized as a fair political cause that cannot be ignored. The STC should “heed to reason,” he instructed, and follow Saudi and Emirati mediation efforts to end the escalation and grant peaceful transfer of camps.
This framing works in two directions, it grants the STC political recognition of the Southern cause, while setting strict boundaries for its pursuit, as Riyadh – according to the statement – distinguishes between the justice of the cause and the use of force to change control maps in resource and border areas. It also provides the STC with a practical exit through peaceful handover as opposed to an open conflict.
What does the Southern Transitional Council’s interpretation of this mean?
This sequence puts the STC to a direct test. The coalition’s operational statement placed a cap on its movements, and the political framing from the Saudi defense minister gave a way out via peaceful handover. In this situation, a coordinated response would preserve the STC’s political discourse and influence in its traditional areas of influence while presenting any withdrawal as an engagement in de-escalation. Procrastination or direct defiance, however, raises risks, as it could lead to greater political and diplomatic pressure and portray it as the party obstructing the de-escalation process in a highly sensitive area. In addition, the three messages change the boundaries of expansion within the same camp because specific tactics for influencing specific areas or centers differ from forced attempts to reshape eastern Yemen.
Houthis are watching.
The Houthis, an armed group with their own government backed by Iran, which control Yemen’s capital Sanaa and northwestern Yemen, are monitoring any rift among their opponents and seek to exploit it. The Yemeni presidency and the coalition’s swift coordination shows to Sanaa rulers that the opposing camp is capable of handling their disputes in sensitive areas and that placing a bet on internal fighting as a route to the east may not be possible. Additionally, creating security arrangements close to resource areas makes it more difficult to politicize their chaos and stifles any attempt to advance there in the future.
The phrase “Saudi–Emirati mediation” in the coalition’s statements and those by the Saudi defence minister appears highly sensitive because Abu Dhabi’s relationship with the STC is not merely one of political communication, but one of sponsorship, funding, and support that grants it freedom of movement and a constant backer. When the UAE and Saudi Arabia sign a letter of agreement as mediators, sending the STC the impression that it is protected, while putting Abu Dhabi in a tight corner because mediation requires a concrete commitment to stop escalation rather than just a declaration of intent.
This directs Abu Dhabi’s willingness to follow Saudi Arabia’s strategy and approach to an issue that threatens its border security and strategic interests, and serves as a test of the alignment of calculations within the coalition itself. But the question remains: will Abu Dhabi succeed in pushing the STC towards de-escalation, or will the political cover remain in place while developments on the ground move in a different direction?
What direction are we taking?
A quick-term settlement that includes a planned handover of camps, a planned handover of camps, and security measures to stop any one party from imposing its dominance in Hadramout and al-Mahra is more likely to be the result of Saudi Arabia’s efforts. This path maintains a minimum level of stability and reduces the chances of clashes within the camp opposing the Houthis. If it fails, only a few deterrents will be developed to enforce the stated ceiling while allowing the mediation channel to remain open to prevent a full-scale explosion.
The cost of turning eastern Yemen into a contentious space has been increased by the three statements, but they have not caused a resolution.
In my view, what will determine the direction is not the statements alone, but the behaviour of the parties in the following days: will the STC choose a settlement that saves face, or will it bet on time? And will the “security alternative” arrangements help to lessen friction, or will they lead to new local sensitivity?
And one more thing about the Houthis: will they view this containment as a deterrent that lessens opportunities to invest in disputes, or will they use it as a chance to test the limits of movement?