Will Iran build a nuclear bomb while Trump is in power in the US?

Iran: Donald Trump’s second term as president of the United States reportedly promises a bumpy road to Iran that could affect how it treats its relations with the West, according to analysts.

Israeli and US leaders have openly discussed military strikes on top Iranian nuclear sites and important infrastructure, including power plants and oil and petrochemical sites.

Iran’s leaders, including Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, remain defiant, and its Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) have held large-scale military exercises, predominantly focusing on defending sensitive sites.

A shift, but to where?

Iran’s relationship with the West has largely been affected by recent developments in its nuclear program and efforts to stop it from developing a bomb. Teheran has consistently argued against the development of mass destruction.

In light of rising security threats, top political and military figures in Iran have recently been discussing ways to change Tehran’s officially stated policy of not pursuing nuclear weapons.

One school of thought appears to be open to discussing the possibility of US involvement, including with the nuclear program, while another is vocal about developing a weapon, especially given the deterioration of Israel’s deterrence and the regional allies’ failures, according to Naysan Rafati, senior Iran analyst at the Washington-based Crisis Group.

However, if the former camp is defeated, Washington will still need to be willing to cooperate with Tehran, and given the Islamic republic’s weaknesses, there will likely be a preference for pressing the regime harder than making concessions.

With Bashar al-Assad’s ouster and the devastation to its “axis of resistance” across the region, Iran has lost one of its fundamental principles.

Additionally, the nation is suffering from a severe energy crisis, a falling national currency, and severe sanctions that are having a negative impact on its already fragile economy.

The government of Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian appears to want to continue its dialogue with the West in light of the country’s dire economic conditions, which is scheduled to include discussions with the E3 (France, Germany, and the United Kingdom) later this month.

The overall framework under discussion resembles Iran’s 2015 nuclear deal with the world powers, which eased some economic pressure on Iran in exchange for limiting its nuclear program.

No new guidelines have been developed, and any discussions so far appear to have been consultations aimed at bringing up different viewpoints.

Appetite for a new agreement

In the years leading up to the nuclear deal, negotiations between Iran and the West took longer than they did now.

Trump retaliated against Iran in 2018 by violating the JCPOA. Five years ago, he also mandated the murder of Iran’s top general and principal architect of its regional axis, Qassem Soleimani.

The Europeans will be much more in tune with any policy the US chooses, according to Ellie Geranmayeh, deputy head of the Middle East and North Africa program at the European Council on Foreign Relations, “in contrast to the first Trump administration, because the Europeans have in some ways supported the highest pressure campaign themselves in recent years due to the growing tensions they have with Tehran.”

According to Abas Aslani, senior research fellow at the Center for Middle Eastern Strategic Studies, major developments should occur this year to better define the course of Iran’s nuclear program.

Aslani noted that there is a greater willingness to bargain for a new agreement because the main sunset clause of the JCPOA, which allows the West to resume any UN sanctions against Iran (the snapback), will expire in October 2025.

The E3 is still using snapback as the last tool they have to influence Iran, according to Geranmayeh, and they are aware that using it can trigger an “very unpredictable chain of escalatory events.”

Europe will use the remaining time until October to push for diplomacy and avert an escalation.

However, the expert said there is still a lot of uncertainty about how Europeans will react if Trump demands an immediate lifting of the E3’s sanctions on Iran in exchange for tradeoffs on transatlantic security issues.

“We will either move toward significantly higher tensions or some sort of, albeit limited, agreement over the nuclear programme, depending on whether Iran and the US can reach some sort of understanding”, Aslani said.

Iran has previously refused to participate in direct negotiations as a result of the US’s unilateral withdrawal from the JCPOA, but there is also the possibility that Tehran and Washington will meet for direct talks.

“If the Trump administration tries to push too hard to get concessions, then it’s going to be exceedingly difficult to reach an agreement even if there’s a broader understanding”, he said.

Iran’s nuclear programme

Iran has not yet begun building a bomb, according to the most recent information.

However, after Trump left the JCPOA a year later, it began increasing its centrifuge capacity and level of enrichment, repeating what was done in response to Israeli attacks on its nuclear facilities and international criticism.

In recent months, it has installed thousands of new centrifuges&nbsp, in reaction to the passing of another Western-introduced censure resolution against it at the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) board.

Tehran’s IAEA reporting that Tehran has enough fissile material for multiple bombs, indicates that it is now enriching uranium up to 60%, which is a technical step away from the more than 90 percent required for a bomb.

Iran has a greater influence over Trump because of its increased nuclear activity, Rafati, a Crisis Group representative, said.

Tehran’s “almost weapons-grade and virtually no breakout time” are “almost perfect,” he told Al Jazeera, blurring the line between a worrying and alarming enough for the US and/or Israel to consider taking military action.

The amount of time needed to break up nuclear waste is known as “fuzzy time.” Iran would need to create a weapon with a long-range missile capable of carrying a nuclear weapon, test it, and then go for a bomb.

According to senior analyst Geranmayeh, the “big elephant in the room” of Trump’s election is still days away, and it is unclear how his administration intends to shape its ties to Iran.

Iran’s nuclear activities are unlikely to significantly increase until the first few weeks of 2025, Geranmayeh said, according to Geranmayeh.

Source: Aljazeera