Islamabad, Pakistan – The government of Pakistan has started a bold agricultural project to improve the 240 million-strong country’s food security.
A network of six canals will be built across the country to irrigate millions of acres of barren lands as part of the $3.3bn (945 billion rupees) project called Green Pakistan Initiative (GPI), which was launched by the country’s powerful army chief General Asim Munir and Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif in 2023.
The canal project, which was inaugurated by Munir and the chief minister of Punjab province last month, has received positive reviews from the public.
Munir praised Punjab, the most populous province, as the “powerhouse of Pakistan’s agriculture,” and stated that the military would continue to support the country’s economic expansion.
But critics say the megaproject, which aims to build canals across Pakistan’s four provinces, would cause water shortages in the southern parts of the country. They claim that no stakeholders’ input was needed to make the project a reality.
Many skeptics believe that the GPI will put pressure on Pakistan’s river system, which has seen declining water levels as a result of overexploitation and climate change.
Numerous protests have taken place in the southern province of Sindh since the project was announced, with the latest demonstration taking place on March 25 in major cities including Karachi, led by Pakistan People’s Party (PPP), the governing party in Sindh which is also supporting the Sharif-led government.
What exactly is the GPI? What does it cover? And why are some of its proposed canals facing such strong resistance?
Why did Sindh’s citizens protest?
As a lower riparian province in Pakistan, Sindh worries that losing water to upstream developments could spell disaster. Water allocation has long been a political hot button.
Since the government announced its intention to develop canals on the Indus – the country’s largest river and water lifeline — thousands of people, including women and children, have taken to the streets.
On February 16, a protest rally against the canal system was held in Bhit Shah, Sindh, where attendees expressed concern that Sindh’s water share might be slashed. For both domestic and commercial purposes, Sindh relies on the Indus River system’s water.
What is the Green Pakistan Initiative?
The economy of Pakistan is the engine of its economy, accounting for 37% of its employment and nearly 25% of GDP.
In an effort to increase productivity, the GPI was created in July 2023.
It aims to modernise the agricultural sector by introducing new technologies and equipment, including drones, land management systems, and tractors, as well as providing seeds and fertilisers to increase yields.
At the project’s inauguration in Islamabad in 2023, Munir described the project as “modern farms,” and it also aims to provide technical inputs to farmers, including soil testing among other services.
Pakistan, which has been forced to borrow money from the International Monetary Fund (IMF), imported $9 billion worth of food in 2023 despite having a balance of payments issue.
The Green Corporate Initiative (GCI), an army-owned private company, has been tasked with converting wastelands into cultivable farmland.
Retired army general Shahid Nazir, the GPI’s head, stated to Al Jazeera that “restoring agriculture is essential for the economy, especially given Pakistan’s climate-related threats.”
Nearly 4.8 million acres (1.94 million hectares) of “barren wasteland” have been found, according to Nazir.
Making that land cultivable would also provide employment opportunities to more than 60, 000 people, he added.
After having rule over Pakistan for more than three decades, the military has an enormous influence in the nation and controls a number of businesses in the fields of agriculture, construction, and real estate.
The project will concentrate on, among other things, growing “target crops” like cotton, wheat, canola, sunflowers, rice, and lentils.
Under the plan, the company will lease land for 30 years through different business models, in which a minimum of 1, 000 acres (405 hectares) will be allocated to investors, who could be both foreign as well as domestic large-scale investors.
Nazir added that the main point is to use the large-scale investment as a model for small farmers, who could then work with other small farmers to update their farming methods and up-date them with modern practices.
Why is the Cholistan Canal significant, and what is it?
The approvals for the “six strategic canals” were given by President Asif Ali Zardari in July 2024, who is from Sindh and a co-chairperson of the PPP, after his meeting with GPI officials.
These canals were deemed “vital for agricultural development and food security,” according to meeting minutes, and Zardari endorsed their simultaneous execution while urging constant funding from both the federal and provincial governments.
The Cholistan is the most significant and significant project among the canals.
The 176km (109-mile) long canal, according to official documents, has three branches, with a total capacity of 4, 120 cusecs (116, 665 litres/second), and is expected to be completed by mid-2030, at an estimated cost of $783m.
Authorities in Punjab have 1.2 million acres (485, 623 hectares) of land, with more than 90% of it located in the Cholistan Desert, which borders India, to build the canal.
452, 000 acres of land will be covered in the first phase, while 750, 000 acres will be irrigated once the second phase is over. More than 170, 000 acres of land in the Cholistan Desert are already used by private investors for cultivation.
The Cholistan Canal is seen as a crucial intervention to transform the region by bringing reliable and sustainable water supplies to large areas of previously uncultivable land, according to the working paper produced by the federal ministry of planning, development, and special initiatives.
The paper stated that “this project is also in line with broader national objectives, such as promoting sustainable development in Pakistan’s less developed regions, and increasing food security.”
Nazir outlined three primary objectives for cultivating the Cholistan Desert: “developing land and increasing yield, enhancing biodiversity, and ensuring social impact”.
While working with foreign investors as well as large-scale domestic investors is our top priority, he said.
In order to assist investors in overcoming bureaucratic obstacles, the SIFC, a high-level body co-chaired by the army chief and the prime minister, was established in 2023.
The move is aimed at attracting investors to Pakistan, a country facing severe economic challenges and currently engaged in a $7bn IMF bailout, its 25th since 1958.
Where does the water originate?
In response to the Indus, Jhelum, and Chenab rivers, which Pakistan and India agreed to do in 1960, the Indus, Jhelum, and Chenab rivers are under the control of India, while the Sutlej, Ravi, and Beas rivers are under Indian control.
The proposed plan for canals states that they will be fed by excess floodwaters from the India-controlled Sutlej River. However, critics claim that flooding alone is a liar.
According to Naseer Memon, an environmentalist based in Islamabad, the water flow in the Sutlej, Ravi, and Beas rivers has been steadily declining as a result of dam construction and climate change.
“If you look at the flow data, between 1976 and 1998, the average flow was 9.35 million acre-feet (MAF). It has dropped to just 2.96 MAF between 1999 and 2022, he told Al Jazeera.
Pakistan’s basic food security and water supply are solely dependent on the Indus Basin Irrigation System (IBIS) according to a report released by the UN Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) for 2021.
The country saves only 10 percent of its river water compared with a global average of 40 percent. Pakistan, according to the FAO, is one of the most water-stressed countries in the world, removing nearly 75% of its total renewable water resources.
According to FAO, the IBIS is one of the largest contiguous irrigation systems in the world, irrigating 44 million acres (18 million hectares) of land in Pakistan. It operates through “three major multipurpose storage reservoirs, 19 barrages, 12 inter-river link canals, and 45 major irrigation canals.”
What are the criticisms’ assertions?
The Indus River System Authority (IRSA), a regulatory body established in 1992 to distribute Indus River water among the four provinces, manages the distribution of water in Pakistan.
Despite opposition from Sindh’s IRSA representative Ehsan Leghari, the authority last month issued a certificate essentially accepting that there was enough water available for the Cholistan Canal.
Leghari argued that this might result in the redirection of Indus water to the Cholistan Canal, which he said would be “unfair to Sindh.”
According to Leghari, “the analysis of the Indus basin’s data has indicated in numerous reports that the Indus basin is entering a critical state, unable to meet existing irrigated, drinking water needs, and unable to stop sea water intrusion,” according to Leghari.
The Sindh government, which is led by the PPP, an ally of Sharif’s Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PMLN), has passed a unanimous resolution in the provincial assembly, demanding an immediate halt to all activities related to the canal project.
A senior PPP official has also criticized the project, claiming it would harm Sindh’s agricultural sector.
The party’s leader in Sindh’s upper house, Sherry Rehman, warned that the project would cause the country’s fertile lands to become desertified.
Memon, the water expert, questioned the lack of transparency from the military and Punjab’s government on how irrigation water would be sourced.
According to him, Punjab’s shortfall may be compensated by diverting more water from the Indus, depriving Sindh, if Sutlej does not have enough water and Punjab diverts from the Jhelum River.
An official IRSA memo last week warned of water shortages in Punjab and Sindh, adding to the concerns raised by Memon, with the potential shortages rising to 30 to 35 percent in the upcoming months.
Memon agreed that improving agricultural practices and bringing them on par with modern practices is necessary, but said, “The process has to be transparent and equitable”.
Source: Aljazeera
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