Many people in Ethiopia’s fragile, troubled northern Tigray region are being impacted by an oddly familiar set of headlines.
Successive delegations of civil society and religious leaders have, in recent weeks, travelled to the Tigrayan capital, Mekelle, for “dialogue”. Some may find it to be a remembrance of the events that took place in the days leading up to Tigray’s invasion in November 2020.
About 5 million people were internally and 600,000 were killed in the war. It brought global attention to Ethiopia’s fractured politics and tarnished the reputation of Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, who had won a Nobel Peace Prize for mending long-severed ties with neighbouring Eritrea.
The war was supposed to end with a ceasefire two years later, but according to analysts, another conflict may be brewing. Eritrea and, possibly, that nation’s own allies could be involved in this situation, as well as the Tigrayan regional authorities. It is not a conflict that the region can withstand, experts fear.
Abel Abate Demissie, an analyst for the Chatham House think tank in the United Kingdom, told Al Jazeera, “We are now at a point where we are all frightened at another conflict in Tigray and with Eritrea. It would be “absolutely devastating.”
Fractured agreements signed back in November 2022 that ended the war between the regional Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) and the federal government are at the root of the tensions. Analysts claim that this is the most terrifying development of the year because of the growing resentment between neighboring Ethiopia and Eritrea.
As neighboring Sudan, South Sudan, and Somalia deal with the ongoing armed conflict, war there could undermine regional stability. Ethiopia is a key player in East Africa. It could also affect Africa’s self-reliance in the aviation sector, as Addis Ababa is one of Africa’s most important air travel hubs.
Disregarded as a peace agreement
War broke out in Tigray in November 2020 after Ethiopia’s Abiy accused the TPLF of attacking a command centre of the national army, the Ethiopian National Defence Force (ENDF).
In what experts claim was an autocratic system, the TPLF ruled Addis Ababa’s ruling coalition for decades. In Ethiopia, where regions are divided along ethnic lines, the group was despised in nearly all ten of its regions. Eritrea, which fought a border war with TPLF-dominated Ethiopia in 1998, also had gripes with the party. Abiy, an Oromo, won the election in 2018 and began working on reforms to create a more powerful central government. However, the TPLF sought to overthrow Abiy’s administration by posing a threat to its authority.
Addis Ababa, in its military response to the TPLF attack, teamed up with other TPLF-opposed entities, including the Amhara army and allied militias, as well as Eritrean forces. Rights groups claimed that the federal government purposefully obstructing aid to Tigrayans and causing a near-famine were all sides were accused of attacking civilians. Many Tigrayans claim that the conflict was a genocide, while the United States described Amhara militia attacks as “ethnic cleansing.” Many were forcibly displaced from western Tigray, which the Amhara region claims. There were countless women raped.
The Pretoria peace agreement was signed by Addis Ababa and the TPLF in November 2022. The ceasefire deal mandated that the TPLF disarm and a new government be jointly appointed by both sides. Additionally, it mandated that all third-party armies withdraw and that Addis Abeba supervise the safe return of displaced people.
However, Getachew Reda, the Abiy-appointed Tigray mayor, and Debretsion Gebremichael, the TPLF’s head, and a power conflict broke out in the organization. It began when Getachew attempted to implement the disarmament clause. However, he was allegedly a sellout by the core TPLF members. The TPLF faction, in conjunction with Debretsion, staged a coup in March, seizing control of Mekelle radio station, and forcing Getachew to flee Mekelle to Addis Ababa. The coup was a direct affront to Abiy, analysts say. Addis Ababa and TPLF have exchanged insults and threatened attacks, despite the fact that he has since removed an additional interim president from Debretsion’s camp.
According to Chatham House’s Abel, “Both sides have downplayed their responsibility,” referring to how both parties appear to have resisted the Pretoria agreement. The TPLF accuses Addis Ababa of failing to resettle people, with some 1.6 million still displaced, and is threatening to forcibly return them. The national electoral body claims that the government has revoked its status as a political party because the TPLF has previously convened a general assembly.
On the other hand, Addis Ababa accuses the TPLF of uniting with Eritrea and faults it for not disarming.
In a speech in parliament in July, Abiy urged religious leaders and civil society members to warn TPLF leaders against escalation, because when conflict starts, “it would be too late”.
The Tigray Democratic Solidarity Party is the name of Getachew’s new political organization after being fired from the TPLF. According to analysts, Tigray could be the place the party would be.
Meanwhile, Amhara militias and the TPLF continue to clash. Many of the young members of the TPLF who enlisted in the TPLF in the 2020 conflict attempted an attack on the TPLF in July, starting new militias allied with Getachew’s group.
The problem with Eritrea
Since 2020, Ethiopia and Eritrea have been at odds with one another because of their ongoing entanglement.
After Abiy’s government and the TPLF reached agreement, cracks started to appear in their pasture. President Isaias Afwerki, who has been Eritrea’s de facto leader since 1994, was reportedly angered as he did not feel sufficiently consulted, even as Eritrean troops are still in Tigray.
However, Abiy’s assertions that landlocked Ethiopia has an “existential” need to access a seaport since 2023 are a bigger problem. As a result of Eritrea’s campaign to secede in 1993, Asmara believes that Addis Ababa may invade and seize the coastal areas it had previously lost. In one comment, Abiy described Ethiopia losing sea access as a “historical mistake”.
According to analysts, Eritrea has been expanding its defenses by sending military tanks to the border, while Ethiopia has also done so. Eritrea solicited conscription into the military in February. Asmara is also reportedly in cahoots with the TPLF to undermine Abiy, although officials deny this.
According to analyst Abel, neither party is really going to war and is just posturing. Ethiopia is not interested in tarnishing its reputation as a developing regional leader in Addis Ababa, where the African Union has its main office.
“The problem, though, is it only takes one small act to ignite a war, even if both sides don’t want it”, the analyst said.
Abiy made an attempt to minimize the tensions during a legislative address in March.
He continued, implying that any port deals would be commercial because “our intention is to negotiate based on the principle of give and take.” “Our plan is not to fight but to work together and grow together”.
Abiy’s search for a port has irritated Asmara as well. After Abiy sealed a port deal with Somaliland’s self-declared state last year, neighboring Somalia almost declared war. Somalia, which views Somaliland as part of its territory, was furious, but Turkiye, Somalia’s close ally, mediated repairs between the two in December. Eritrea met with Somalia and Egypt before the two countries agreed to a truce. Egypt is also angry with Addis Ababa over the Grand Renaissance Dam, which it claims will encroach upon the country’s water supply from the Nile.
Can all sides find peace?
Analysts claim that the key to finding common ground lies primarily with Abiy because Asmara, for one, lacks diplomacy and appears more confident in the support of rumored Eritrean backing.
The big question is whether Abiy will and will be able to rekindle diplomatic ties with Eritrea or the TPLF without feeling isolated on either side. In the background, as well, are the Amhara militias who are still present in disputed western Tigray. Any efforts to get rid of them could cause conflict.
In any case, according to analyst Micheal Tsegay Assefa’s conclusion in a brief for the Atlas Institute for International Affairs, Abiy is already experiencing a legitimacy crisis.
“Regional leaders, particularly from Amhara and Oromia, increasingly question the central government’s capacity to secure peace and manage inter-regional conflicts”, he wrote, due to Addis Ababa’s inability to enforce the peace deal.
Tigrayans are once more frightened of losing their lives as the sabre-rattling continues. Numerous people are fleeing the area as a result of the recent upheaval, some taking deadly paths to avoid the entire country.
Researchers say Ethiopian migrants attempting, and dying, to enter Yemen via the Gulf of Aden increasingly appear to be from Tigray, based on the clothing or jewellery found by rescuers during shipwrecks.
Another war must not occur, according to analysts.
Source: Aljazeera
Leave a Reply