In a stunning geopolitical reversal, on October 29, the United States abruptly lifted sanctions on Bosnian Serb leader and genocide denier Milorad Dodik – a known Kremlin ally who has long undermined Bosnia and Herzegovina’s sovereignty. The decision, which contradicts years of US policy, intriguingly coincides with the beginning of direct dealings between Russia and Bosnia’s Serb entity, Republika Srpska.
The Russians, who had long treated Belgrade as the only authority representing all Serbs across the region, have seriously undermined Serbia’s authority recently by acknowledging Dodik as the rightful representative of Bosnia’s Serb population.
The Trump administration’s unexpected move to lift sanctions on Dodik at a time when he is building a strategic relationship with Moscow signals a potential grand bargain between world powers, raising alarming questions about what Washington gained in exchange for effectively ceding half of Bosnia to Russia’s sphere of influence.
The unexplained reversal
The US unexpectedly removed sanctions from Dodik and his network. This was a sudden, unexplained reversal of a longstanding policy. For years, the US targeted him for trying to destabilise Bosnia, denying genocide, and pushing for secession. Removing him from the sanctions list appears to give a blessing to the denial of the Bosnian genocide and creates a clear path for Bosnia’s breakup.
This move creates a glaring paradox in US foreign policy.
Dodik is one of the Kremlin’s most overt allies in Europe, openly celebrating his ties with Moscow and advocating for Russian interests. However, the US keeps strong sanctions on many other people and entities for far weaker links to Russia.
The perplexing decision to lift sanctions on him exposes a troubling inconsistency in Washington’s approach to Russia, one that undermines the credibility of its broader sanctions regime.
Citing successful lobbying by Dodik as the reason for this reversal is a weak and unconvincing justification. According to estimates, Dodik’s lobbying efforts in the US have grown to two or three times the $30m figure confirmed for 2017. The scale of his spending, however, is still a pittance compared with the vast sums deployed by other nations and interest groups that consistently fail to achieve such spectacular diplomatic victories.
Another theory for the US policy shift involves Bosnia’s mineral wealth, specifically lithium. This follows a May 21, 2025, statement by Dodik, who publicly offered the mineral resources of the Bosnian Serb entity to the US in exchange for recognition of Republika Srpska’s sovereignty.
This theory, however, contains a logical flaw: if the US’s primary interest were lithium, maintaining sanctions would provide more direct control over the resources without needing to grant Dodik anything. The inadequacy of this explanation strongly suggests that more profound, undisclosed geopolitical calculations are at work, raising alarming questions about the true price of this sudden US retreat.
Moscow dominating Serbia
For a while now, Serbia has been moving away from Russia and towards the West.
On August 29, 2024, Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic announced a $3bn deal with France to buy 12 Rafale jets, signalling Belgrade’s shift towards Western security alliances.
At a joint news conference, French President Emmanuel Macron praised the agreement as “historic”, lauding Serbia’s “strategic courage” and reaffirming its European future. This did not go unnoticed in Moscow. In May 2025, Russia accused Serbia of stabbing Moscow in the back for selling weapons to Ukraine. Furthermore, in July, the Kremlin condemned Belgrade for considering joining Western sanctions against Russia.
On the day before the sanctions on him were lifted, rather than courting Washington, Dodik was in Minsk embracing Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov. By meeting Dodik a day before US sanctions on him were lifted, Moscow declared a new Balkan strategy that deliberately sidelines Serbia.
Back in September, Russia’s foreign minister described Dodik as the “legitimately elected president” of the Bosnian entity Republika Srpska. But now, the official website of Russia’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs describes Dodik as “the leader of Bosnian Serbs in Bosnia and Herzegovina.” This new designation serves multiple strategic purposes and marks a clear geopolitical shift.
First, it undermines the sovereignty of Bosnia by asserting a national rather than a purely regional mandate for Dodik’s authority.
Second, it directly challenges Serbia’s ambition, embodied in the concept of Srpski svet (Serbian World), to act as the central patron of all Serbs, asserting instead Russia’s claim to be the ultimate arbiter of Serb political affairs. Belgrade’s Srpski svet mirrors the Kremlin’s Ruski mir (Russian World) doctrine, with both aiming to unite ethnic and linguistic kin under a transnational cultural identity. Ultimately, these ideologies serve to expand political influence and justify intervention in neighbouring states under the pretext of protecting their diasporas.
The most potent signal of this shift came from Dodik himself. He publicly snubbed Vucic by bluntly declaring that Belgrade would have no say in the Republika Srpska. Vucic responded by citing the affront: “The other night, I saw that in Banja Luka they say that no one from Belgrade will give them orders.”
For years, Serbia has positioned itself as the paternal guardian of all Serbs, with Republika Srpska operating firmly within its political orbit. Dodik’s statement shattered this dynamic, announcing that the Serb-majority entity now answers to a different patron.
Moscow’s move has publicly split Dodik and Vucic, weakening Serbia’s power. It shows Russia will now deal directly with Bosnian separatists, ignoring the Serbian government. For Vucic, who tries to keep ties with both Europe and Russia, this is a worst-case scenario. It proves his influence is no longer needed and that Russia is now working through Banja Luka instead of Belgrade, severely reducing Serbia’s importance.
Moscow’s power play: Annexing Europe’s ailing heart
The US decision to lift sanctions has effectively allowed Moscow to take in Republika Srpska as a new Russian territory. The era of indirect influence is over; the Bosnian entity is now being governed directly from the Kremlin, fundamentally altering the balance of power in Europe.
A Russian military footprint in the Balkans is also expanding. While Russia maintains unofficial bases in Serbia, it is now likely to establish one in Banja Luka, the de facto capital of the Bosnian Serb entity, as well.
Bosnia, located in the heart of Europe, is itself shaped like a heart. For 30 years, the European Union had the chance to heal Europe’s ailing heart. The EU failed because, at its own core, it is afflicted by deep-seated racism: Islamophobia and Russophobia. The price for this hatred is now clear. Half of Europe’s heart — half of Bosnia — has effectively become a new Russian territory, a territory from which launching missiles would be far more efficient than from Kaliningrad.
The global chessboard: A tacit US-Russia understanding?
The sudden lifting of US sanctions on Dodik, followed instantly by his strategic embrace with Lavrov, is best understood not as a US policy failure but as a calculated move on the global chessboard. Lavrov’s masterstroke was to publicly empower Dodik at the direct expense of Belgrade, a clear signal to Serbia that its historical role as the primary patron of Bosnian Serbs is over. In this new alignment, Moscow demonstrates that it holds the key to power in the Bosnian entity Republika Srpska, forcefully reminding Serbia who truly commands the loyalties of its supposed kin.
This power play exploits Serbia’s fundamental and precarious dilemma. The nation is perpetually torn between its economic and political ambitions for EU integration and its deep-seated historical, cultural, and religious ties to Russia. Lavrov’s move tightens the Russian noose, forcing Belgrade into a more subservient position.
This leads to the most unsettling theory: that the US acquiescence is part of a tacit great-power trade-off. The timing and incongruity of the sanctions lift suggest it is not a retreat but a strategic bargain. Washington may have deliberately ceded its influence in Bosnia, accepting an expanded Russian sphere of influence in the Balkans, in exchange for a strategic concession from Moscow elsewhere — perhaps related to Ukraine, the Middle East, or another arena. This fits a cynical historical pattern: big powers often ignore local commitments to serve their own secret deals.
The unanswered question and the fallout
The abrupt US sanction lift, followed immediately by Dodik’s pivot to Moscow, leaves one chilling, unanswered question: what did Washington secure in return for effectively gifting half of Bosnia to Russia’s sphere of influence? This opaque bargain sacrifices decades of principled Balkan policy for an undisclosed geopolitical price, undermining US credibility and the fragile Dayton peace.
The fallout is clear: emboldened secessionists, a destabilised Europe, and a dangerous signal that hard-won democratic norms are merely currency in a new great game, leaving allies betrayed and adversaries triumphant.
Source: Aljazeera
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