Following the funeral of late Pope Francis on April 26th, a secret ballot will be held at a meeting this week for the first time ever.  , The vote itself will take place behind the sealed doors of the Sistine Chapel sometime after May 7.
The Catholic Church’s election of its next leader is a significant and anticipated task. The church counts some 1.4 billion , baptised Roman Catholics around the world as members.
The Vatican’s elections are subject to campaigning and lobbying. First, the cardinals must hold a series of congregazioni – special meetings at which they will discuss what sort of leader they are looking for. According to the voting regulations, all cardinals are welcome to attend these meetings regardless of age, even though only 135 cardinals will be able to cast because they are under the age of 80.
Roberto Regoli, a professor of Catholic Church history at Rome’s Pontifical Gregorian University, said that unlike in a normal election, none of the top contenders in the Vatican is openly canvassing to be elected. He said that the majority of people, if asked, would say they don’t want the post.
“It’s a lot of work”, Regoli told Al Jazeera. You are unable to devote any time to yourself.
Results can often be surprising, and experts are wary of speculating in advance. Pope Francis, for instance, did not even appear in the media as a favorite in 2013. It was only after a speech he gave at one of the congregazioni that he was noticed.
What are some of the potential candidates’ current knowledge and skills?
How are the next pope chosen and when?
The College of Cardinals will ultimately elect one of their number to be the next pope. Since they are under the age of 80, the cut-off date for papal elections is 252 cardinals, 135 of whom are cardinal electors.
After a few days of meetings, the 135 voting cardinals will be sequestered in the Vatican’s Sistine Chapel on May 7 in what is known as a “conclave”. They won’t have access to phones, the internet, or the outside world. No cardinal can leave until a name is pronounced, barring exceptional circumstances.
The new pope will be chosen by a secret ballot or by a plurality of cardinals. The winner needs a two-thirds majority.
The color of the smoke coming out of the chapel’s chimney, which is visible to observers outside the Vatican, will indicate whether a pope has been chosen; black indicates there is no consensus, and white indicates there has been a new pope.
Conclaves usually last for several days or, in some cases, weeks. In two days, Pope Francis was elected.
The cardinals who cast ballots are who?
Francis’s reforms changed the makeup of the College of Cardinals. He chose 80 percent of the country’s current cardinals, choosing them from all over the world, with a focus on the Global South, and choosing those who lean against various ideologies.
For the first time, countries like Mongolia, Iran and East Timor will be represented. Among the cardinals are those who are more conservative on issues like same-sex unions and divorces, as well as those who are less orthodox. The bigger mix of views – and the much larger representation of the Global South – makes this vote a particularly unpredictable one, experts say.
What qualities do cardinals seek in a new pope?
In their meetings before the conclave, the cardinals will be trying to decide if they want a liberal-minded leader like the late Pope Francis, a more traditionalist pontiff like his predecessor, Pope Benedict XVI, or someone with moderate tendencies.
Given that the world is currently facing numerous conflicts and shifting geopolitical dynamics, Cardinals are likely to be looking for someone with international diplomacy, Regoli said. The church would also prefer someone not too young, to ensure a relatively short tenure.
According to historian Miles Pattenden, an associate of the University of Oxford, ideology and geography will also play a role.
“Francis was known to be spontaneous, and the church might be looking to elect someone more cautious in his reactions”, he said. The cardinals may also want to convince people that an Asian or African pope is more representative as the Catholic population grows in Asia and Africa.
Personal charm, though, is the secret ingredient. It’s difficult to know which cardinals will get along with whom because so many of them have never met. The next pope will be the cardinal who, without appearing to do so, can convince the others that he can represent the church globally and address the church’s challenges: adapting to secularisation, and coping well with recent sex and financial scandals, as well as declining membership in the West.
Most importantly, electors appear to be searching for a sober and unifying figure who can replace Francis’ more revolutionary style of leadership as the church’s central government.
Who are the top contenders?
A list of candidates, in no particular order, is provided below.
Cardinal Luis ‘ Chito ‘ Antonio Tagle, 67
Some observers think the church’s leadership will shift away from the traditionally elected Italian cardinals’ leadership.
Tagle, from the Philippines, might suit the cardinals who want that growth to be more visible. The nation has the highest percentage of its population, or 80%, who identify as Catholic. If elected, Tagle would be the first Asian pope.
Tagle, who was appointed a cardinal by Pope Benedict in 2012, currently oversees the church’s evangelisation initiatives from the Vatican. A former archbishop of Manila, Tagle is popularly referred to as the “Asian Francis”. According to Pattenden, his manner of government resembles that of the late Pope Francis.  ,
While he opposes abortion, he has pushed for a less harsh stance for gay people, divorcees, and single mothers and is committed to social justice issues like migration and poverty. Senior roles within the Holy See since 2019 have also seen him gain Vatican experience.
Cardinal Pietro Parolin, 70
Parolin, the current Vatican secretary of state, has a good chance of being considered for pope because of his background and position within the church. He has held the number two position in the Vatican since 2013.
He is regarded as a skilled, stable hand on the international stage thanks to his diplomatic travels for the church in Nigeria, Mexico, Spain, and Italy. He has pushed to improve China-Vatican relations, which have been strained because of the Holy See’s recognition of Taiwan.
Parolin’s supporters claim that despite supporting some of Francis’ ideals (he supports accepting the divorced and opposes the US administration’s plans for Gaza), he also is a pragmatist who is more sensitive to diplomacy and may adopt a more moderate approach than Francis. Critics, however, say he lacks pastoral experience and might put diplomacy above the church’s interests.
If the church chooses to follow the Francis-style, Parolin or Tagle might best represent that.
Cardinal Peter Kodwo Appiah Turkson, 76,
Of three prominent African frontrunners, Turkson, who hails from Ghana, is seen as the more moderate and, thus, more suited to diplomacy. In general, the group of African cardinals is viewed as quite conservative, especially in relation to the status of women in same-sex unions and church.
Experts previously marked Turkson as a favourite in 2013. He opposes the criminalization of gay relationships in Ghana, where a bill that harsh penalties for homosexuality have been passed, despite leaning more conservative than liberal.
There has never been an African pope, and such an election would be “ground-breaking”, Pattenden said.
Cardinal Peter Erdo, 72
The Hungarian priest, who is characterized as cautious and risk-averse, is a well-known lawyer and staunch conservative who is likely to be supported by those who want to alter Pope Francis’s leadership style.
Erdo, as the archbishop of Esztergom-Budapest, is seen by critics as friendly to the Hungarian right-wing and anti-migrant governing party, Fidesz, causing some observers to describe his candidature as one to be afraid of. Erdo has posed questions about how integrating refugees might threaten Hungary’s political stability, despite not directly opposing people’s right to migrate. Critics cite this stance as one close to approving Fidesz’s criminalisation of migrants.
Some claim that Erdo hasn’t done enough to properly investigate allegations of sexual abuse in the Catholic Church.
In an opinion piece in the United Kingdom’s Guardian newspaper, Hungarian journalist Alex Faludy wrote that Erdo’s name on the list should make observers “fearful”.
For LGBTQ+ Catholics and those who have remarried after a divorce, “Erdo’s potential ascent to the papal throne” is bad news, according to Faludy. “It should, however, also worry abuse survivors and anyone concerned with the integrity of Christianity’s presence in public life”.
At the age of 60, the priest was considered a favorite in 2013, but he struggled to gain significant support. At the time, observers said he was seen as too young.
Cardinal Matteo Zuppi
Zuppi, an Italian and Bolognan archbishop, was a well-known diplomat who also helped put an end to the 1992 Mozambique civil war. He also led a peace mission to Ukraine in 2023.
He was appointed cardinal in 2019 by Francis, whose ideals he broadly agrees with.
Matteo’s role as a member of the Community of Sant’Egidio, a Catholic humanitarian organization, would be to concentrate on expanding outreach to underprivileged or troubled areas.
Cardinal Fridolin Ambongo Besungu
The archbishop of Kinshasa in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Besungu represents a key demographic in the church: the DRC has more than 7 million Catholics, making it the biggest Catholic country in Africa.
Cardinal Besungu is a steadfast traditionalist. While he has spoken out against human rights violations in his homeland, he is unequivocally against blessing same-sex relationships (which Pope Francis introduced), even standing up and criticising Pope Francis about his rulings on the topic.
The conservative camp is also a fan of him.
Cardinal Michael Czerny, 78
Originally from Czechoslovakia but raised in Canada, the cardinal leads the social justice operations of the Vatican.
He was chosen by Pope Francis and, like him, belongs to the Jesuit branch of the church, which focuses on education, missionary work, and charitable causes. The two men were considered to be close.
The African Jesuit AIDS Network was established by Czerny after working in both Latin America and Africa.
Experts say it is possible Czerny will appeal to progressives in the church, but there are doubts about whether the College would immediately vote for another Jesuit pope.
Regoli remarked, “Normally, we don’t have two popes of the same order in succession.”
Cardinal Pizzaballa, 60
From Italy, Pizzaballa is the Latin Patriarch of Jerusalem, where he has lived since being ordained as a priest at 25 years old.
In 2023, Pope Francis appoints him as cardinal.
He has a good understanding of the complexities of the Palestine-Israel conflict, Israel’s ongoing war on the Gaza Strip and Middle Eastern relations.
Pizzaballa has criticized both sides of the Gaza war. In the early days of the war, he offered to exchange himself for child captives taken during Hamas’s attack on Israel on October 7, 2023.
According to Pattenden, age will be one of the most important considerations for the church. Pizzaballa, at 60, is much younger than Pope Francis was when he was elected (76). That implies that some voters might not like Pizzaballa’s age despite being a strong candidate.
Cardinal Robert Sarah, 79
The Guinean cardinal is perhaps the most traditional and orthodox of all the frontrunners and is one of the most recognised African church leaders.
At the time, he was the youngest bishop in the world and was appointed archbishop of Conakry at the age of 34. His outspoken nature placed him on an assassination hit list by the former Guinean dictator, Ahmed Sekou Toure. Following Toure’s passing, the list was made public.
In 2001, Pope John Paul II promoted Sarah to head of evangelisation, opening his sojourn into the Vatican proper.
He was appointed cardinal by Pope Benedict in 2010 and took up his post as prefect of the sacraments in 2021.
He reportedly had turbulent relations with Pope Francis, however. For those in the college looking to reverse Francis-era reforms on abortion, same-sex relations, and the church’s closeness with other religions, Sarah’s leanings, age, and Vatican experience make him appealing.
Cardinal Angelo Scola, 83
An old Vatican saying goes thus: “Popes who enter a conclave often emerge as cardinals”. Scola is a follower of that saying. Back in 2013, the Italian priest was the touted media favourite, going into the conclave as the one most people believed would be pope. A group of Italian bishops even claimed that Scola had been elected when the white smoke started to rise. But he eventually emerged as a cardinal because Pope Francis had been elected.
Scola, a former archbishop of Milan, will not be able to cast a ballot because he has overturned the 80-year voting cap, but he has once more come out as a credible candidate.
His ideologies more closely model the conservationist approach of Pope Benedict XVI who appointed him cardinal.
Scola is largely silent on same-sex unions, but she is fiercely opposed to female deacons and other left-leaning gender debates.
He has pastoral experience but is also a well-known professor and scholar with several books under his belt. He has focused on evangelizing and assisting new Catholic converts on interfaith and intercultural dialogue as well as.
His critics see him as an intellectual who might be a tad removed from the experiences of the common Catholic, but his traditionalism and age could make him a good option for conservatives.
Source: Aljazeera
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